Subject: Breaking News: Bob Casey lead narrows in PA Senate Race
From: "Amy Pfaehler, Bob Casey for Senate" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 26 Sep 2012 10:21:54 -0400 (EDT)

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Bob Casey For Senate
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Breaking Bob Casey Campaign News from Hotline On Call-
A new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll released today shows Sen.
Casey with a 49 percent to 43 percent lead over Tom Smith, who has outspent our 
campaign 3-1 in ad buys since the primary election in April (full article below).
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Casey Holds More Narrow Lead in Pennsylvania [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0013gjr2DF-b-BeFeTuvqJI2PPU7TWEq5K9PiWsasizg5AVDR7rIejZyIXxmhEDz9JhuiWn7HGb64UFdjrYES3pMZEpWoW4eJuu9V-gmqf8nyx6SHV9tjOkn0IzvDqrbK8s0zOuhUTX8WfqgyWhKIOEfREqcXOul69k40zOe1Ma872iB9lMra1-8nqsF2WvKf1R]
By Kevin Brennan
September 26, 2012 | 3:00 a.m.

Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., holds a narrow lead in his bid for a second term, according
to a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll released Wednesday.

Casey leads businessman Tom Smith, 49 percent to 43 percent, while 8 percent of 
respondents are undecided. The numbers represent a departure from previous results,
as most independent polls released since the April primary have shown Casey with
 a double-digit advantage.
In the previous Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News survey, conducted 
in late July, Casey led Smith, 55 percent to 37 percent.
Casey underperforms President Obama, who leads Mitt Romney 54 percent to 42 percent
in the new poll. While the Senate race has moved in the Republican's direction since
the last poll, the presidential contest has remained stagnant. In late July, Obama
led Romney, 53 percent to 42 percent.
The uptick in Smith's numbers can be partially attributed to a significant spending
advantage. According to a Democratic source tracking ad buys, Smith, a former coal
executive with limited prior political experience, has outspent Casey on television
ads by a three-to-one margin since the primary. A GOP source said Smith is on television
in every significant market in the state, including the Philadelphia and Erie markets,
where Casey is not running any ads.

Casey's campaign sent out a fundraising appeal on Tuesday citing the spending disparity.
"Our opponent Tom Smith is up on the air in a big way - outspending us across the
Commonwealth and flooding TV sets with negative attack ads," Larry Smar, Casey's
 campaign manager, wrote in an email to supporters.

Entering the primary with virtually no name recognition, Smith tapped his personal
wealth to outspend his opponents by a wide margin on advertising, leading to a runaway
win. In his general election ads, Smith has linked Casey to Obama and the struggling
economy while highlighting his own successful business career.
The encouraging new poll numbers could provide a shot in the arm to the Republican's
campaign and attract more attention to the race, which many analysts had written
 off as non-competitive.
The biggest challenge for Smith in closing the gap with Casey remains the distance
between Obama and Romney in Pennsylvania. Neither presidential campaign is spending
on television in the Keystone State -- an indication that the state likely will 
remain solidly in Obama's corner. If Romney remains behind by double-digits, Smith
would need to attract an inordinate amount of crossover voters to win the Senate
 race.
The Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll was conducted Sept. 18 through
Sept. 24. It surveyed 1,180 likely voters, for a margin of error of plus-or-minus
2.9 percentage points.

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