Subject: POLITICO Huddle – Presented by The Beer Institute – Fiscal cliff talks in the dark, W.H. 'absolutely' ready to cliff dive, Rove: Advantage Obama, Boehner gets earful, Senate to screen 'Lincoln,' Cruz's high-wire act, DeLay-Abramoff do lunch, trivia
From: "POLITICO Huddle" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 06 Dec 2012 07:38:04 -0600

By Scott Wong (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked]  or @scottwongDC)

FISCAL CLIFF TALKS IN THE DARK -- Josh Gerstein and Byron Tau report for POLITICO: "President Barack Obama called closed-door negotiations a "mistake" after backroom wheeling and dealing almost sunk his health care bill. But the fiscal cliff talks are playing out much the same way. The negotiations on the Hill have taken place in private. Obama has held closed-door sessions with CEOs, union leaders, liberal activists and small business owners. When congressional leaders were invited to the White House, cameras were allowed in for a brief statement - then ushered out. And GOP aides, not White House officials, leaked details of the administration's opening offer on the fiscal cliff to
 reporters.

-- "Of course, it's extremely difficult to reach compromise on major legislation in Washington with cameras present - and pretty tough even when they're not. Obama has learned that the hard way during his first term. But his 2008 pledge to open up the process - a commitment he repeated in 2010 - has provided a perennial attack line against him whenever there's a prickly issue that needs to be resolved.

-- "Some on the right, chiefly Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) and Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform, have embarked on a campaign to open the negotiations to the public. A few on the left agree. The desire for transparency seems to come largely from those at either end of the political spectrum who fear their allies will abandon them behind closed doors. And good-government groups believe closed-door talks almost always lead to special favors and deals that shortchange the public." 
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FISCAL CLIFF COUNTDOWN: 26 DAYS

THE 37 PERCENT SOLUTION - POLITICO's Jake Sherman and Steven Sloan write that a deal may sit somewhere between current tax rates and Clinton-era rates.
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DEMS STROLL TO EDGE OF CLIFF - Chris Frates writes for National Journal: "Democrats did not do much on Wednesday, adopting a deliberate strategy to slow walk Republicans to the edge of the fiscal cliff on a belief that mounting pressure from within the GOP will force conservatives to fold on tax hikes. Their aim is to string out the negotiations to give Republicans space to wrap their heads around the idea of raising tax rates on the rich. And so far, each passing day seems to add another Republican voice to the chorus coming around on tax hikes. ... On Wednesday, conservative Republican Sen. Tom Coburn said he'd favor increased tax rates over limiting deductions and loopholes - a
 development Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer argued should 'provide cover for the Republicans to finally shift on tax rates.' 'Our basic strategy is to let them sweat it out,' said a top Senate Democratic leadership aide. 'We don't necessarily have to do anything.' Indeed, Democrats privately believe that negotiations will not begin in earnest until much closer to Christmas. So, much of the next week or two will be filled with sound and fury designed to do little more than run down the clock.

-- "The strategy was in full view Wednesday as Senate Democrats called on House Republicans to approve legislation the Senate passed in July extending Bush-era tax cuts for everyone but the rich - an idea that has been flatly rejected by Republican House Speaker John Boehner. Instead, Boehner countered with a plan to raise $800 billion in new revenue by closing loopholes and ending deductions. But two days after Boehner's offer, congressional Democrats on Wednesday were still arguing that Boehner had to offer more specifics before negotiations could move forward." 
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GEITHNER: W.H. 'ABSOLUTELY' READY TO GO OVER CLIFF - Lori Montgomery and Rosalind Helderman write on A1 of the Washington Post: "With less than a month before the 'fiscal cliff' deadline, President Obama remains adamant about allowing tax rates to rise for the wealthiest 2 percent of taxpayers. Without such a deal, he is 'absolutely' ready to go over the cliff, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said Wednesday on CNBC. Many GOP centrists and some conservatives are calling on House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) to concede on rates now, while he still has some leverage to demand something in return. Republicans are eager to win changes to fast-growing safety-net programs, such as
 raising the eligibility age for Medicare and applying a less-generous measure of inflation to Social Security benefits. ...

-- "Republicans are growing alarmed that they could be blamed if Washington is unable to resolve the fiscal stalemate and $500 billion in year-end spending cuts and tax increases kick in. Nearly 90 percent of U.S. households would face higher taxes, and economists warn that the economy could be jolted back into recession. With talks between the parties apparently at a standstill, Obama called Boehner on Wednesday, their first conversation in a week, aides to both men said." 
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ROVE: ADVANTAGE OBAMA - GOP strategist Karl Rove writes in a Wall Street Journal op-ed: "President Barack Obama has clear advantages in the public-opinion contest over the fiscal cliff. He recently won re-election, Democrats increased their Senate majority and the GOP controls only the House. In the Nov. 25 ABC News/Washington Post poll, 60% of respondents said they support 'raising taxes on incomes over $250,000 a year,' the centerpiece of Mr. Obama&#39;s approach. Yet the president might be overplaying his hand-which would have ramifications not only for the fiscal cliff but for his entire second term....

-- "The key for Republicans is to appear flexible rather than intransigent, willing to compromise rather than eager for a political smashup. This requires them to keep offering sensible alternatives and emphasizing that the country&#39;s problem is too much spending. It will eventually sink in with many voters that Mr. Obama previously endorsed the GOP&#39;s approach of generating more revenue through tax reform (not increased tax rates) and that his real goal is bigger government, not smaller deficits. Still, the president has a big megaphone and few political figures are as comfortable as he is playing the blame game. So if he and Congress deadlock and the country goes over the cliff on
 Dec. 31, he will likely come out better in the court of public opinion. This might explain why his proposal last week wasn&#39;t serious. He doesn&#39;t think he needs to be, believing Republicans will cave.

-- "But there are considerable downsides for Mr. Obama if the nation goes over the fiscal cliff. His approval rating (51% in the most recent Gallup Poll weekly average) will probably drop, as it did during the July 2011 debt-ceiling battle. While Congress&#39;s standing dipped a little then, the president&#39;s Gallup rating sank to 38% in August 2011 (from 47% at the start of the year). It didn&#39;t get back to 50% until April 2012. ... If negotiations stall and Washington plunges over the fiscal cliff, it will weaken Mr. Obama&#39;s ability to bend Congress to his will, hasten the moment when congressional Democrats become more concerned about their standing than that of a lame-duck
 president, and further poison relations with Republicans." 
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BOEHNER GETS EARFUL FROM BOOTED MEMBERS - Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan report for POLITICO: "Two GOP lawmakers who were booted off choice committees stood up in a closed party meeting on Wednesday morning and angrily voiced their concerns to Speaker John Boehner and the entire House Republican Conference. Rep. Tim Huelskamp, a conservative Kansas Republican who was booted off the Budget Committee, said he wanted to see a list of votes that the House GOP Steering Committee based their decision on. So far, that hasn't happened. And Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), who lost his seat on Financial Services, told his colleagues - including Boehner (R-Ohio) and his leadership team - that he
 wanted to know where the line of acceptable behavior is. Schweikert also noted that he kicked people off committees when he was the whip in the statehouse in Phoenix.

-- "The decision by Boehner to remove the lawmakers - and Boehner had the biggest say in the moves - shows how much stronger the Ohio Republican is within his conference since the election. The party's continued control of the House - combined with Mitt Romney's defeat and the urgency of the fiscal cliff crisis - have strengthened his hand in dealing with wayward members. Still, his move came at a critical moment in his leadership and sparked a torrent a criticism from conservative outside groups. Boehner's strength atop the caucus could be at risk if he ends up losing the showdown over the fiscal cliff to President Barack Obama." 
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CLIFF TIMEOUT:Alan Simpson dances 'Gangnum style' --
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REID ARRANGES 'LINCOLN' SCREENING - Warren Rojas writes for CQ Roll Call -- "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is going Hollywood, reaching out to Director Steven Spielberg to screen his cinematic paean to '16' for lawmakers on Wednesday, Dec. 19. According to a preliminary report on the entertainment site Deadline, the Nevada Democrat was so taken with the 'Lincoln' biopic, a gripping drama which focuses on a career-defining standoff between the embattled president just after his election to a second term and a reticent Congress (hmmm, wonder whether any other Illinois lawmakers can relate?), he was willing to 'provide the U.S. Senate to Spielberg as the theatre.' Not so, says a Reid aide,
 who told CQ Roll Call that while they are happy to host the film, opening up the chamber is a nonstarter. 'It will *not* be on the Senate floor as one report suggested,' the aide stated." 
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DEBT LIMIT GIVES GOP LEVERAGE, BUT OBAMA UNYIELDING -- JimKuhnhenn writes for the Associated Press: "The political fight that took the nation to the verge of defaulting on its debts last year is back, overshadowed by 'fiscal cliff' disputes but with consequences far graver than looming tax hikes and steep spending cuts. The government is on track to hit its $16.4 trillion borrowing limit later this month. And while the Treasury can keep the government functioning through early next year, President Barack Obama is bluntly insisting that any deal on the fiscal cliff include an end to brinkmanship on the debt ceiling. Obama is demanding tax rate hikes on the rich, using the prospect of a worse
 alternative and the momentum of his re-election as leverage. But the debt ceiling gives Republicans a powerful weapon to extract further deficit reduction too, contributing to the current stalemate. ...[F]ailure to raise the borrowing cap would leave the government unable to pay its debts. That would roil the stock market, result in a likely downgrade in the nation&#39;s credit rating, increase interest rates and threaten another financial crisis. Last year&#39;s fight prompted Standard & Poor&#39;s to reduce the AAA rating for government bonds.

-- "That risk gives Republicans the weight to counter Obama in fiscal cliff talks and demand that the president agree to greater spending reductions or savings from programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and even Social Security." 
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DEMS EYE LAME-DUCK LAWMAKERS - Kathleen Hunter reports for Bloomberg: "Scott Brown of Massachusetts, Olympia Snowe of Maine and Richard Lugar of Indiana, departing Republican senators with a history of compromise, will be prime targets for Democrats seeking votes to avoid tax increases and spending cuts in the so-called fiscal cliff. Senate Republican leaders are anticipating that because of their lame-duck status and moderate voting records the three lawmakers will receive overtures from President Barack Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat. Brown, Snowe and Lugar each said in interviews that their impending departures from Congress won't alter the way they
 evaluate a possible deal to avert more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending reductions set to begin in January unless Congress acts. Still, they've indicated a willingness to back a deal with broad support. ... More than 80 lawmakers in both chambers, some defeated in re-election bids and others retiring, will vote this month before leaving Congress. Some are considered possible swing votes on a budget deal because like Brown, they may have future political aspirations, or like Lugar and Snowe, they may want to secure a political legacy." 
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GOOD THURSDAY MORNING, DECEMBER 6, 2012, and welcome to The Huddle, your play-by-play preview of the day's congressional news. Send tips, suggestions, comments, complaints and corrections to 
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TODAY IN CONGRESS - The House has adjourned for the week. The Senate's in at 9:30 a.m. and at noon will vote around noon on a bill to normalize trade relations with Russia, as well as the nominations of Mark Walker to be U.S. District Judge for the Northern District of Florida and Terrence Berg to be U.S. District Judge for the Eastern District of Michigan.

AROUND THE HILL - Sens. Bernie Sanders and Maria Cantwell speak on media consolidation at 10:30 a.m. in the Senate Studio. House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi holds her weekly on-camera briefing at 10:45 a.m. in HVC Studio A. Sens. Sanders, Tom Harkin, Jack Reed, Chris Coons and Chuck Schumer speak on unemployment benefits at 11:30 a.m. in the Senate Studio.

SOMETHING FISHY: DeLAY, ABRAMOFF DO LUNCH -- WaPo columnist Al Kamen writes: "Former House majority leader Tom DeLay was lunching with disgraced superlobbyist Jack Abramoff at a back table in Sushi Taro near Dupont Circle, a sharp-eyed source tells us. The confab sure looked like an effort to get the old band back together: The two men have a long and scandalous history together, including as traveling buddies on now-infamous trips to Scotland and the Northern Marianas Islands. ... Abramoff has executed an impressive comeback (he's got a book out, often pundit-izes on corruption and even has a gig hosting a radio show), while DeLay has kept a lower profile, taking speaking engagements and
 devoting time to conservative causes." 
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TED CRUZ'S HIGH-WIRE ACT - David Catanese writes for POLITICO: "Ted Cruz's tea party cred is about to be put to the ultimate test. The Texas senator-elect's decision to take a formal role at the National Republican Senatorial Committee places him squarely inside an organization many on the right view with suspicion, if not outright disdain. His title will be vice chairman, but it could just as easily be ambassador - to the ideological grass-roots wing of the party, which helped propel Cruz's long-shot bid over a sitting lieutenant governor this year. It's a high-wire act for the political neophyte. As an NRSC deputy, he'll have to balance the political pragmatism of a quintessential
 inside-the-Beltway institution without tarnishing his brand as an anti-establishment constitutional conservative." 
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GOHMERT CAST LONE VOTE TO KEEP 'LUNATIC' IN FEDERAL LAW - Jennifer Bendery writes for the Huffington Post: "The House voted on Wednesday to strike the word 'lunatic' from all federal laws and only one lawmaker voted against the measure: Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas). It was unclear initially why the Tea Party favorite opposed the change, and a Gohmert spokeswoman did not return a request for comment. The point of the bill, which cleared the Senate in May with no opposition, is to strike language from current law that contributes to the stigmatization of mental health conditions. But during a rant on the House floor later in the day, about the need for a flat tax, Gohmert shed some light on
 why the word needs to stay. 'To keep spending and not pay the price, that is immoral,' Gohmert said. 'That&#39;s why we shouldn&#39;t eliminate the word &#39;lunatic.&#39; It really has application around this town." 
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THE ROGERS REPORT: CA'S HIGH-SPEED RAIL FIGHT - "What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, but what happens in California is never so shy," David Rogers writes for POLITICO. "Or so it seems in the case of a homegrown, Golden State partisan brawl over high-speed rail that has spilled onto the House floor and into year-end budget negotiations. At stake is a multibillion-dollar, years-in-the-works public works project - but also a governmentwide spending bill that could play into the high-stakes deficit-reduction talks between Congress and the White House. The cast of characters runs from the legendary Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown to House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and back to Senate
 Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), a Brown ally and fellow champion of high-speed rail for Nevada. ...

--"At issue is a House provision adopted in late June on a highly partisan vote triggered by the California Republican delegation. It would bar any new federal money from going to the Brown-backed California High-Speed Rail Authority. Rep. Jeff Denham, a Republican freshman and veteran of the California Legislature, was the sponsor. And McCarthy is using his leadership post to press for the language as part of whatever compromise is reached on transportation funding for the coming year. That transportation title is just one piece in a much bigger omnibus spending package that is largely drafted - after months of negotiations - and remains a top priority for the Appropriations panel
 leadership. Getting floor time in the shadow of the current budget talks will be difficult. But Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) proposed $300 billion more in savings, over a decade, from discretionary spending this week as part of his talks with the White House. And in doing so, he indirectly boosted the omnibus's chances as the best vehicle to begin these cuts." 
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FOXX KICKS STAFFER OUT OF MEMBERS-ONLY ELEVATOR - Judy Kurtz and Kris Kitto write in The Hill: "Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) chewed out a House staffer after catching her riding on a 'members only' elevator, according to an ITK tipster who was on the scene. But Foxx's office is calling our lookout&#39;s description of events in the elevator an exaggeration.Our spy hit the 'members' button on the elevator after waiting (and waiting) for a lift on Tuesday. Elevators were slow that day because furniture was being moved around the Longworth House Office Building. When the members-only elevator arrived, our tipster and a female House staffer stepped in. The elevator went up a single floor before
 the doors opened and Foxx walked in with an aide. The lawmaker, who was recently elected to a House GOP leadership post, asked for whom the pair worked. Then she turned to the female staffer, who had no clue she was on board what was soon to be the elevator ride of doom. Foxx said to the staffer, 'This is a 'members-only' elevator; can you read?' She then demanded the staffer's name before the elevator stopped after going just one more floor up. 'Get out here,' Foxx supposedly commanded. ... But that wasn't it. The innocent staffer attempted to point out that the sign next to it stated, 'during votes,' which is when, our tipster says, Foxx started yelling, 'Members only!' as she pointed to
 signs.

-- "Foxx's press secretary, Ericka Perryman, noted it must be a slow news day, telling us in an email, 'This is silly. But it is interesting to see what great lengths of exaggeration some disrespectful junior staffers will go to just to read about themselves in the paper.'" 
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PERRIELLO WON'T RUN FOR VA. GOV. - James Hohmann writes for POLITICO: "Tom Perriello announced Wednesday that he will not run for governor of Virginia next year. The former Democratic congressman threw his support behind Democratic frontrunner Terry McAuliffe, clearing the way for an epic 2013 showdown between the former Democratic National Committee chairman and Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli." 
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WEDNESDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER - There were actually two answers to yesterday's question. Both Matthew Erwin and Paul Curran answered at the same time that real campaign footage from Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush appeared in Clint Eastwood&#39;s movie "In The Line of Fire."

TODAY'S TRIVIA - Pierce Blue has today's question: Sen. Dick Lugar will announce Friday a post-Senate opportunity at the University of Indianapolis. Which current U.S. senator formerly served as president of a major university, and which former U.S. senator is now serving as president of a major university?

First to correctly answer gets a mention in the next day's Huddle. Email me at 
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WEATHER - Mostly sunny but much cooler today with another warming trend beginning tomorrow, according to ABC7's Brian van de Graaff.

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