Subject: POLITICO’s Morning Score: Gun control debate continues-- Rand Paul to CPAC-- Cuccinelli gets GOP nomination in Va.-- Rubio begins immigration push-- George P. Bush ‘for sure’ running in Texas-- Booker rankles Lautenberg aides with ‘14 talk
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2013 04:55:55 -0600

By Emily Schultheis (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] ; Twitter: @emilyrs) and James Hohmann (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

STATE OF PLAY ON GUNS-"The White House has identified 19 executive actions for President Barack Obama to move unilaterally on gun control, Vice President Joe Biden told a group of House Democrats Monday," Reid Epstein reports. "Later this week, Obama will formally announce his proposals to reduce gun violence - expected to include renewing the assault weapons ban, universal background checks and prohibiting high-capacity magazine clips. But Biden, who has been leading Obama's task force on the response, spent two hours briefing a small group of sympathetic House Democrats ... Even Democrats that back gun control concede that reinstating an assault weapons ban - the 1994 law expired in 2004
 - will be a heavy lift for the White House." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1264fb07706bad35baef4459e34b5ec6266a075944121b6b99a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1264fb07706bad35baef4459e34b5ec6266a075944121b6b99a 

Fresh polling on guns-

Pew: 55% favor a ban on assault-style weapons (69% of Democrats and 44% of Republicans)... By a two-to-one margin (64%-32%), most favor putting armed security guards and police in more schools. But when it comes to more teachers and school officials having guns, most are opposed (40% favor vs. 57% oppose). 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126bc7fcf199c6a81bc260a508e5978b294a053af0c8075fe41 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126bc7fcf199c6a81bc260a508e5978b294a053af0c8075fe41 

ABC/Washington Post: 52% say the Newtown shootings made them more supportive of gun control...58% support renewing the assault-weapons ban. Cohen: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126278e881e105ea02c27d443f76edd63794e1befed83d4ff8a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126278e881e105ea02c27d443f76edd63794e1befed83d4ff8a . Gary Langer: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126262190dabdf3a3ca69845660319dd25a3a524b8787a9ca11 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126262190dabdf3a3ca69845660319dd25a3a524b8787a9ca11 .

Gallup: 38% of Americans are dissatisfied with the nation&#39;s gun laws and want them strengthened. This is up from 25% who held this set of views a year ago, and is the highest since 2001. Still, more Americans are either satisfied with current gun laws, 43%, or think they should be loosened, 5%. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1261f614a9ee28865ea169f8246bdfffab96449cd3de2d2030e 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1261f614a9ee28865ea169f8246bdfffab96449cd3de2d2030e 

Portland Press Herald of Maine: 55% have a gun on their property...79% of Mainers support some restrictions on owning guns, and 61% support banning high-capacity ammunition clips that can hold more than 10 bullets. 51% support banning semi-automatic guns. Poll: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12616b432d132c3eb658f46e1e8fe0a211506fc355b9eff3d7d 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12616b432d132c3eb658f46e1e8fe0a211506fc355b9eff3d7d . Notably, independent Sen. Angus King expressed coolness yesterday to an assault weapons ban: "The biggest issue to me is the size of the magazines," he said on CBS. "That's sort of the common thread that connects a lot of these massacres."

Fairleigh Dickinson University of New Jersey: 61% support reducing violence in movies and video games. 45% are in favor of placing armed guards in public places. Chris Christie yesterday: 'The problem of violence is not just about guns...It&#39;s not gun control, it&#39;s violence control...We need to have a more effective way to deal with the mentally ill.' Story: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126bde63c34a5dc1c6340c91d3ad2fb4b7c54ff62d4c288dbf1 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126bde63c34a5dc1c6340c91d3ad2fb4b7c54ff62d4c288dbf1 . Poll: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12619cb1709c2223e6d77baa95b01235a0af7c60650bfc9f374 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12619cb1709c2223e6d77baa95b01235a0af7c60650bfc9f374 .

NEW YORK&#39;S STATE SENATE passed a comprehensive gun package last night. The legislation, which will be the first state-level gun law to pass since the Newtown shooting, includes measures that ban the online sale of assault weapons, limit magazines and clips and require stolen guns to be reported within 24 hours. The state&#39;s legislation now must be passed by the full legislature, which is expected to happen today. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126ef98d4e97e76d7f58d37482d3bfc2c27ca270e8dae795fc6 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126ef98d4e97e76d7f58d37482d3bfc2c27ca270e8dae795fc6 

REALITY CHECK: Just 4% of Americans identify guns as the nation's top problem, per Gallup: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12679dc9443533fe329b8026cf3169fb1aafa006c3b5272e033 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12679dc9443533fe329b8026cf3169fb1aafa006c3b5272e033 .

FIRST IN SCORE: Rand Paul has confirmed that he will speak at CPAC. The Kentucky senator, seen as a likely 2016 Republican candidate for president, has just returned from a trip to Israel. His father, Ron, won the CPAC presidential straw poll in 2010 and 2011. The annual conservative confab takes place in mid-March at National Harbor this year: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1261f554b53e4136c9cd207bde094e2fc38f0bfcfe8f82d7523 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1261f554b53e4136c9cd207bde094e2fc38f0bfcfe8f82d7523 

TOP TALKER-AFTER USING 'REAGAN' AS CAMPAIGN PROP, FLORIDA GOVERNOR GAVE BACK RESCUE DOG: The Tampa Bay Times has a bizarre story about Rick Scott - facing a tough reelection next year - giving back a rescue dog that he named "Reagan" and used to boost his 2010 run for governor. It turns out, according to the governor, that it was a rescue that didn't adjust well to being around people. So a month after he took office, his family returned the dog to the original owner. But, for days, the governor's press team refused to answer a reporter's questions. The result of their clumsy stonewalling is a process story that is much more damaging than it might have been if they had just come clean. This
 is exactly the kind of story that breaks through with the not-insignificant constituency of dog owners: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12657a9b274c72274e379de3f5737271827fb5d5c05fed0aca4 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12657a9b274c72274e379de3f5737271827fb5d5c05fed0aca4 .

BUNDLE UP - FREEZING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR INAUGURATION: Weather forecasts for next weekend are showing a cold front hitting D.C. on Sunday - just in time to bring freezing temperatures to the city for President Obama's second inauguration. The weather blog Capital Weather Gang predicts temperatures in the region will likely stay below 40 degrees that day, and may even stay below freezing as hundreds of thousands of Americans descend on the city. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126bb33ab418308e0546f51b9cbaa9db39c754e65e5769303c3 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126bb33ab418308e0546f51b9cbaa9db39c754e65e5769303c3 

Only 600,000 to 800,000 are expected for Obama's second inaugural, down from 1.8 million four years ago. This is still twice the 300,000 to 400,000 who came for George W. Bush's second inaugural, per McClatchy: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12697daa2bedafffcb4968037d150c3dcbb932b7d1a20f56a2c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12697daa2bedafffcb4968037d150c3dcbb932b7d1a20f56a2c .

As Jenny Sanford disses John Boehner, the Virginia governor's race starts off close and Rubio and Ryan talk immigration, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your weekly guide to the permanent campaign.

FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD-

(1) How will Congress respond to Biden's gun control recommendations?

(2) Will Obama and GOP leaders aim for a long-term fix to the debt ceiling or negotiate another short-term one?

(3) Will Obama's second inauguration live up to the hype of the first one?

(4) Which Democrats will jump in to replace Jay Rockefeller in West Virginia's Senate race?

(5) Will Scott Brown make up his mind about the Massachusetts special?

VIRGINIA GOVERNOR - IT'S CUCCINELLI: Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli will be the Republican nominee for governor in Virginia: he was the only candidate to file paperwork in advance of the state party's filing deadline at 5 p.m. Monday. He'll likely face Democrat Terry McAuliffe - and Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who passed on challenging Cuccinelli for the GOP nomination, has indicated he could still launch an independent bid.

MORE FROM VIRGINIA - POLLS SHOW CLOSE RACE: Two new polls out in the Virginia governor's race show a tight race shaping up with plenty of undecided voters. A Quinnipiac poll finds the race essentially tied, with McAuliffe taking 40 percent and Cuccinelli taking 39 percent. If Bolling were to run as an independent, McAuliffe and Cuccinelli would be tied at 34 percent each and Bolling would get 13 percent. Another survey, from Public Policy Polling, gives McAuliffe a 5-point lead over Cuccinelli, 46 percent to 41 percent, with 13 percent of voters undecided. If Bolling runs, McAuliffe's lead would expand to 8 points: he'd get 40 percent of the vote, compared with 32 percent for Cuccinelli and
 15 percent for Bolling. See full results here: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12623309b8d136afaea6365297eab80fafb0b5794627f530214 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12623309b8d136afaea6365297eab80fafb0b5794627f530214  and here: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1266eac80df0325a3b769ca41d09f948b581db707cd7e1bfb15 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1266eac80df0325a3b769ca41d09f948b581db707cd7e1bfb15 

MASSACHUSETTS SPECIAL - LABOR LEADER KNOCKS MARKEY: In Massachusetts, where Rep. Ed Markey is still the sole Democratic candidate who's officially jumped into the race to replace John Kerry in the Senate, one labor leader isn't thrilled with Markey being the Democratic establishment's candidate of choice. Mike Monahan, the business director of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers 103, called Markey a "weak candidate." "The field is weak at best, and in a special election beating [Scott] Brown will take a lot of work and a lot of money," he said, per the Boston Herald. It's further proof that Markey isn't the candidate of consensus for Massachusetts labor unions, which are a
 huge force in any Democratic victories in the state. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126fbd1c5b9d86ebcdeb0667e90f3638144094445305c12fcc4 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126fbd1c5b9d86ebcdeb0667e90f3638144094445305c12fcc4 

SOUTH CAROLINA HOUSE SPECIAL - JENNY SANFORD WON'T RUN, TWEAKS BOEHNER: Former South Carolina First Lady Jenny Sanford said Monday she won't run in the special election to fill Tim Scott's Charleston-area House seat. "The idea of killing myself to run for a seat for the privilege of serving in a dysfunctional body under John Boehner when I have an eighth-grader at home just really doesn't make sense to me," she said, per the AP. As for her ex-husband, former Gov. Mark Sanford - who's widely expected to announce he'll run for the seat - she said he "did a good job as congressman" in that district and that she hasn't decided who she'd support. The filing period for the race begins Friday. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126e96d8e3d74235e59d173e477c957a5d8672f329372bb4666 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126e96d8e3d74235e59d173e477c957a5d8672f329372bb4666 

NEW SABATO BOOK OUT TODAY - "Barack Obama and the New America: The 2012 Election and the Changing Face of Politics," edited by Larry Sabato. Contributors include Robert Costa, Alan Abramowitz and Rhodes Cook. On Amazon: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1263e11f8b9c687ed1b52e3433dd90a490e43545601b77285b8 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1263e11f8b9c687ed1b52e3433dd90a490e43545601b77285b8 .

EXCERPT-THE MIDTERM ELECTORATE IS CHANGING: "It is hard to say if or when minorities might begin to participate in midterm elections at higher rates," New Republic staff writer Nate Cohn writes. "Even so, demographic changes are already diminishing the white share of the midterm electorate, which declined from 81 percent in 2002, to 79 percent in 2006 and 77 percent in 2010. At that pace, the GOP will face a midterm electorate reminiscent of 2008 in 2014 and more like 2012 by 2018. Of course, geography and redistricting combine to ensure that even a 2008-esque electorate and result might still maintain the GOP's House majority."

THE ELECTORAL MAP - PRIEBUS BACKS IDEA OF PROPORTIONAL VOTES: RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said over the weekend that he'd support the idea of Wisconsin and other swing states changing their rules to award electoral votes proportionally, joining Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in expressing his interest in the idea. "I think it's something that a lot of states that have been consistently blue that are fully controlled red ought to be looking at," he said, per the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, saying that allocation "gives more local control" to the states. Thus far, only two states - Nebraska and Maine - don't use a winner-take-all electoral vote allocation. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126721944cf434971fd877b11230c0522e9b207bbb9eb3d3af8 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126721944cf434971fd877b11230c0522e9b207bbb9eb3d3af8 

DNC BEATS RNC BEFORE SUPREME COURT: "The Supreme Court has refused to lift a 30-year consent decree that bars the Republican National Committee from targeting racial and ethnic minorities in its efforts to end fraudulent voting," the Los Angeles Times reports. "The justices without comment turned down an appeal from RNC lawyers who said the decree has become 'antiquated' and is 'increasingly used as political weapon' by Democrats during national campaigns. For their part, lawyers for the Democratic National Committee had argued that recent campaigns show the 'consent degree remains necessary today.' The court's action is a victory for the DNC, and it comes after an election year in which
 the two parties regularly exchanged charges over 'voter fraud' and 'voter intimidation.'" 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1260e6f5ea7b2833c1397759a0d4bdbbc60b5af9bb720adfc98 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1260e6f5ea7b2833c1397759a0d4bdbbc60b5af9bb720adfc98 

2014 NEWS-

IN THE LONE STAR STATE, GEORGE P. BUSH PREPARES: George P. Bush, the attorney and son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, told the AP in an interview about his political future that he is "for sure" running for statewide office in Texas in 2014. "We for sure are running, the question is the office," he said. The office most mentioned as a potential fit for Bush, who filed paperwork to run for office last November, is Land Commissioner, which is seen as a stepping stone to higher office within Texas. Bush said his decision on which position he'll run for depends in large part on what other Texas pols decide to do - and that he won't mount a primary campaign against people like Gov. Rick Perry
 or Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst if they decide to run again. "We've said that we want to be team players in the party, providing a younger, fresher vision for our values," he said. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1266cb87177eea24d2b6129e85789460c8ba23906c6975bcd89 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1266cb87177eea24d2b6129e85789460c8ba23906c6975bcd89 

BOOKER SIGNALS INTENTION TO CHALLENGE LAUTENBERG: Newark Mayor Cory Booker is pressing on with his intention to run for Senate against incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg next year, despite the fact that his public statements on the issue have rankled Lautenberg's advisers. Booker filed paperwork with the state last week. "That&#39;s my intention, but it&#39;s over a year away,' he said when asked on NBC's 'Meet the Press' if he&#39;s going to run. 'A lot could change between now and then.' 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126290e60425df7829d29f187265b140fef2baa583eb35efbda 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126290e60425df7829d29f187265b140fef2baa583eb35efbda 

2016 WATCH-

RUBIO BEGINS IMMIGRATION PUSH: Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who's been outspoken on the Republican Party's need to address its rhetoric on immigration, outlined his plan on the issue in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. Per the WSJ: "His wholesale fix tries to square-triangulate, if you will-the liberal fringe that seeks broad amnesty for illegal immigrants and the hard right&#39;s obsession with closing the door. Mr. Rubio would ease the way for skilled engineers and seasonal farm workers while strengthening border enforcement and immigration laws. As for the undocumented migrants in America today-eight to 12 million or so-he proposes to let them 'earn' a working permit and, one day,
 citizenship." Given the GOP's huge loss among Hispanic voters around the country, including in Rubio's home state, the way other members of his party respond to the plan will be one signal of how seriously the GOP takes its demographic problems going forward. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12626ab4b422b5b2f60dfe4a3da1208980f486da97c179df70c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12626ab4b422b5b2f60dfe4a3da1208980f486da97c179df70c 

MORE - RYAN GETS ON BOARD: Rep. Paul Ryan signaled his support for the Rubio immigration plan Monday, posting a statement on his Facebook page. "Senator Rubio is exactly right on the need to fix our broken immigration system," he wrote. "I support the principles he's outlined: modernization of our immigration laws; stronger security to curb illegal immigration; and respect for the rule of law in addressing the complex challenge of the undocumented population."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1268a264d48010552296446b15e26a0f527f55fb3a654a50256 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1268a264d48010552296446b15e26a0f527f55fb3a654a50256 

RICK SANTORUM will speak at and participate in the March for Life on Jan. 25, joining protesters in their march to the Supreme Court.

HILLARY CLINTON will testify at House Foreign Affairs on Benghazi January 23rd.

JAY NIXON, the Missouri governor who easily won reelection in November, should be higher on your list of potential Democratic contenders for the nomination. He started his second term yesterday, amid press reports that he's about to become bolder: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126c638ed1107c1791c1fbde65926eebb52551d84798cf10e4b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126c638ed1107c1791c1fbde65926eebb52551d84798cf10e4b .

OUT IN AMERICA-

KENTUCKY: "Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway told The Associated Press that he&#39;s taking 'a very, very serious look' at running in the 2015 election, a move that could ward off some potential challengers for his party&#39;s nomination to replace Gov. Steve Beshear." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12603fa024bd06ad03b16cea7e498674e9fd07b0700fa0eef65 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12603fa024bd06ad03b16cea7e498674e9fd07b0700fa0eef65 

MICHIGAN: The Detroit News says "Chrysler to build Jeeps in China." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126319a22738d820d01a0936afbcfd2453b53382b8f5cb0112a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126319a22738d820d01a0936afbcfd2453b53382b8f5cb0112a 

INDIANA: Mike Pence was sworn in as governor yesterday. The Indianapolis Star has video of his inaugural address: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12690a653c625fdd86b96bdf5952aa3539549c23babbb4a54bd 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12690a653c625fdd86b96bdf5952aa3539549c23babbb4a54bd . Outgoing Gov. Mitch Daniels, meanwhile, started as president of Purdue University: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12685d19786d196c96ebe24cf9a5e6224dc24128c13c6a5c1a9 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12685d19786d196c96ebe24cf9a5e6224dc24128c13c6a5c1a9 .

NEW HAMPSHIRE: "Former New Hampshire Republican Party Chairman Fergus Cullen is spearheading the launch of a new bipartisan advocacy group he says will promote immigration reform from a 'center-right' perspective," the Union Leader reports. "With immigration expected to move to center stage in Washington this year, Cullen has founded a 501(c)4 non-profit called Americans-By-Choice, which he hopes to develop into a leading national voice promoting a 'pragmatic' approach to reform." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1265f131d9ae5d018e1a505f61cf7ddf61d6484192d8ecc5e1a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b1265f131d9ae5d018e1a505f61cf7ddf61d6484192d8ecc5e1a 

RON PAUL delivers the first speech of his "2013 College Tour" tonight at 7 p.m. at Washington and Lee University: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126b4860949437f72e959946d125976bd1b1dd68e28d428343c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126b4860949437f72e959946d125976bd1b1dd68e28d428343c .

LIGHTER CLICKS-

ANN ROMNEY reportedly turned down a spot on "Dancing With the Stars." (No word on whether Rafalca is available for the show.) 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126c845c7e848d029723404d5970e764e1303fdef847135b018 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126c845c7e848d029723404d5970e764e1303fdef847135b018 

OBAMA's HALF BROTHER is running for office in Kenya. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126b6ff7692a123fa0fd4fe60b8ae3d4229d51475511c34bcf3 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126b6ff7692a123fa0fd4fe60b8ae3d4229d51475511c34bcf3 

BILL CLINTON made a surprise appearance at the Golden Globes Sunday night to introduce 'Lincoln.' 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126a327e3d38a18a0df72701da4e583aae93715536fa277f75e 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126a327e3d38a18a0df72701da4e583aae93715536fa277f75e 

NEWT GINGRICH crashes a bachelor party on 'Parks and Recreation.' 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12639309a87dceca24ff2b7232541a1e682d39f7dedea7d0211 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b12639309a87dceca24ff2b7232541a1e682d39f7dedea7d0211 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I like a good party." -President Obama, speaking to reporters in a news conference at the White House Monday. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31d085a7d301b126f2f5c6cee13b5cdac6017f0a3aac4f17d04af4617e4abb4f 
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