Subject: David Hale 2013 Annual Forecast: Have Financial Markets Become Complacent?
From: "David Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2013 10:55:18 -0800 (PST)

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Dear R. Hunter,

The number of potential risks in the global economy has declined 
significantly in the last six months. The financial panic in the 
eurozone is largely over. The US Congress passed a fiscal cliff deal and 
has suspended the debt ceiling until May. Fears of a hard landing in 
China have abated and the leadership transition is proceeding smoothly. 
Despite these positive developments, a possible US government shutdown 
in late March, a lackluster outlook for Europe, and disappointing growth 
in leading emerging market countries provide ample reason for concern. 
You will find attached our 2013 annual forecast, "Have Financial Markets 
Become Complacent?" Key conclusions include: 

US corporate profit growth is likely to disappoint in 2013

US growth will be limited to 2.0-2.5% this year due to fiscal drag 
stemming from the payroll tax cut, but growth will accelerate as the 
year progresses

Many European countries are slashing their 2013 growth forecasts

Shinzo Abe's fiscal and monetary policies should sustain Japanese growth 
in the 1.5% range in 2013 in spite of recent weakness

In China a firming property market, improving consumption, and an uptick 
in infrastructure spending will propel growth to the 8.0-8.5% range in 
2013

The growth outlook for the Asian Tiger countries has improved as a 
result of the U-shaped recovery in China

Br azil is back in the game, but South Africa is lagging behind

I remain positive on gold

As always, we welcome any questions or comments, by either phone or 
email.

With all best wishes,

David Hale 

Chairman

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

546 Lincoln Avenue, 2 nd  Floor

Winnetka, Illinois 60093 USA

847-386-6009 (tel)

847-386-6011 (fax)

[email-masked]

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