Subject: David Hale Global Forecast: Will the Stock Market Rally Bring an Economic Upturn?
From: "David Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 17 Mar 2013 16:48:35 -0700 (PDT)

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Dear R. Hunter,

Aside from the mild uncertainty caused by the Italian election's 
inconclusive result, recent global economic news has been largely 
benign. The US economy has proven to be resilient in the face of an 
increase in the payroll tax and other fiscal drag, fears of currency 
wars have subsided after the positive outcome from the recent G-20 
meeting, and incoming leaders in China and Japan are set to implement 
policies that should help China become more consumer-centric and revive 
Japanese domestic demand and exports, respectively.

Attached you will find our latest global forecast, "Will the Stock 
Market Rally Bring an Economic Upturn?" Key conclusions include:

Despite the payroll tax hike that has hit most US households, 
non-consumption US indicators have displayed strength so far at the 
start of the year

A curtailment of QE3 is unlikely to occur until the unemployment rate 
approaches 7.0% during 2014

The Italian election could lead to bond yields rising 150-200 basis 
points if a functioning government cannot be formed and a new election 
has to be held later this year

The Japanese economy is showing signs of strength and optimism is 
widespread as a new governor of the Bank of Japan is set to take over 
and ease monetary policy further

The Chinese government is transitioning to new leaders at a time when it 
is concerned about the rapid growth in total social financing and a 
resurgence of property inflation

As always, we welcome any questions or comments.

With all best wishes,

David Hale 

Chairman

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

546 Lincoln Avenue, 2 nd  Floor

Winnetka, Illinois 60093 USA

847-386-6009 (tel)

847-386-6011 (fax)

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