Subject: POLITICO’s Morning Score: Landrieu, McConnell both under 50 percent in new polls —EMILY’s List targets six GOP House members—McConnell, Braley, Udall bring in seven-figure hauls in 1st quarter—NRCC, DCCC outline theory of the case in SC-01—Schwartz files paperwork for Pa. gov race
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 09 Apr 2013 04:01:55 -0600

By Emily Schultheis (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] ; Twitter: @emilyrs)

EXCLUSIVE-LANDRIEU LEADS, BUT STAYS UNDER 50 IN HARPER POLL: A new poll out from the GOP firm Harper Polling today shows Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu with modest leads over two potential GOP challengers, but also finds voters in the state are generally more inclined to back a Republican candidate in the race. Landrieu would beat Rep. Bill Cassidy by 5 points, 46-41, and Chas Roemer by 13 points, 46-33. Still, Landrieu sits under the 50-percent mark, an indication that she's vulnerable next year. Part of the problem for the GOP candidates is likely due to lack of name ID: 56 percent of those surveyed didn't have an opinion of Cassidy and 64 percent didn't have an opinion of Roemer. On a
 generic ballot test, though, the GOP did better: 46 percent of those surveyed said they'd prefer the Republican candidate, compared with 40 percent who said they'd prefer the Democrat. Full results: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=066970020038fe357e973a5fd4e0af2dcdb35f7948f915f7ee30d2a3bb69047d 
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ALSO IN LOUISIANA-LANDRY LAUNCHES CONSERVATIVE PAC: Former Louisiana Rep. Jeff Landry is launching a PAC to support conservative candidates going forward, he told POLITICO. From the story, by Alex Burns: "Former Rep. Jeff Landry, who lost his bid for reelection last year, will helm a group dubbed Restore Our Republic. The goal of the super PAC, he told POLITICO, is to give conservatives aligned with the GOP's activist base the same outside support that establishment-side Republicans get from independent expenditure groups. ... Landry, who has been viewed as a possible Louisiana Senate candidate in 2014, said launching Restore Our Republic doesn't necessarily close other doors for his
 political future. But he emphasized that the super PAC is a long-term project, which most likely lowers the odds of a challenge next year to Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu." 
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PREVIEW-DSCC HITS GOP CANDIDATES ON EQUAL PAY: In honor of Equal Pay Day today, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will go on the attack against Republican candidates and incumbents in eight different Senate races. States and races on the list: Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, West Virginia, Kentucky and Texas. "Ending gender based pay discrimination and making sure women are given equal pay for equal work is critically important for all women and middle class families," DSCC press secretary Regan Page says in the release set for this morning. "Equal Pay Day provides a grim reminder of [these GOP candidates&#39;] extreme and out of touch records on equal pay and
 workplace discrimination."

FIRST IN SCORE-KINGSTON RAISES $841K IN GEORGIA: Preparing for a likely Senate bid, Georgia GOP Rep. Jack Kingston will announce that he's raised $841,000 in the first quarter of 2013, bringing him to a total $1.75 million on hand. Kingston has reportedly hired a polling firm and plans a mid-April announcement of his decision in the race. His first-quarter fundraising, especially compared with the same period in 2011, when he raised $90,000, is another sign the congressman is planning to announce he'll run. He'd join fellow GOP Reps. Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey, both of whom have officially entered the race.

SNEAK PEEK-MCCONNELL APPROVAL DROPS IN PPP POLL: In the first poll of the Kentucky Senate race since Ashley Judd announced she won't run, Public Policy Polling finds Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leading all potential Democratic challengers but with underwater approval ratings in his home state. McConnell holds modest leads over secretary of state Alison Lundergan Grimes (45-41) and former Rep. Ben Chandler (46-41), and a double-digit lead over contractor Ed Marksberry (46-35). That said, McConnell still doesn't hit the 50-percent mark in any matchup, and his approval rating is low: just 36 percent approve of his job performance, compared with 54 percent who disapprove. Also, the
 poll finds Judd may have made the right choice in bowing out: just 34 percent of those surveyed have a favorable opinion of her, compared with 41 percent who view her unfavorably. Grimes, Democrats' most likely candidate at this point, said recently she hasn't made up her mind about the race.

BREAKING TODAY-EMILY's LIST TARGETS SIX GOP REPS: The pro-Democratic women's group EMILY's List is out today with its second round of targeted candidates for the 2014 cycle, placing them "on notice." On the list this time: Reps. Joe Heck (NV-03), John Kline (MN-02), Tom Latham (IA-03), Tom Reed (NY-23), Scott Tipton (CO-03) and David Valadao (CA-21). The group is targeting these members because of their "anti-woman, anti-family records." "Whether they opposed equal pay, voted to end Medicare as we know it, or to allow hospitals to let women die rather than provide lifesaving abortion care, it's clear they have the wrong priorities," EMILY's List President Stephanie Schriock says in a
 statement. See the full list of "On Notice" candidates: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ea08b469d3e408a5f45f40a0debbcd37da35280862ac87f6c585adaddf795fc2

FUNDRAISING TICKER-More notable first-quarter fundraising numbers so far: Republican Mitch McConnell (KY-Sen): $1.8 million; Democrat Mark Udall (CO-Sen): $1.5 million; Republican Shelley Moore Capito, (WV-Sen): $915,000; Democrat Bruce Braley (IA-Sen): $1 million; Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia (FL-26): $550,000; Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy (FL-18): $550,000; Republican Rep. Mike Coffman (CO-O6): $510,000; Democrat Andrew Romanoff (CO-06): $500,000.

FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD-

1) Which Senate incumbent up for reelection in 2014 posts the biggest first-quarter fundraising totals?

2) Will President Obama get any momentum on gun control after his Connecticut speech?

3) Does Terry McAuliffe explain more about why he left the board of GreenTech, his electric car company? 
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4) Will Congress make any progress on immigration this week?

5) Which 2016 Democratic hopefuls start scheduling early-state appearances?

As big-name Dems step in for Elizabeth Colbert Busch, Allyson Schwartz makes it official and 2016 prospects head for Manchester and Des Moines, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your guide to the permanent campaign.

SOUTH CAROLINA SPECIAL-BIG-NAME DEMS RAISE CASH FOR COLBERT BUSCH: Now that the general election in South Carolina's 1st district is underway, a handful of national Democrats are teaming up to raise money for Democratic candidate Elizabeth Colbert Busch. Alex Burns: "Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar are among the several dozen Democratic lawmakers listed as hosts for an upcoming fundraiser in Washington. All three are viewed as potential contenders for national office. The April 15 event is the cornerstone of national Democratic efforts to rally financial support for Colbert Busch, who is locked in a competitive race with
 former Republican Gov. Mark Sanford for an open Charleston-area House seat." 
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PARTY COMMITTEE MINDMELDS: Now that the candidates are set for the May 7 general election in South Carolina's 1st, the NRCC and DCCC outline the state of the race:

NRCC: "Elizabeth Colbert Busch has become a real celebrity. For obvious reasons, her candidacy has captured the intrigue of Hollywood and the Beltway. But while she fills her campaign coffers in Manhattan and D.C., back in South Carolina, voters don't particularly share her embrace of President Obama's agenda. Thus, the Democrats' strategy is pretty clear: Keep Colbert Busch from saying anything about the issues, otherwise South Carolinians will vote against her. South Carolinians deserve to know that her campaign is being actively supported and funded by the same unions that fought to keep Boeing from creating jobs in South Carolina. In contrast, Mark Sanford has a solid pro-growth, small
 government record. Democrats don't want a race about the issues, because they know they'll lose that fight."

DCCC: "While Republicans continue to confront tough questions about their ability to win women voters, they&#39;re now stuck with disgraced former Governor Mark Sanford as their public face. This is an overwhelmingly Republican district that Mitt Romney won by 18 points but the potential competitiveness has forced Republicans to worry and potentially spend money. There are 119 Republican-held seats that are more Democratic than this one. Democrats have nominated a tough, independent-minded businesswoman in Elizabeth Colbert Busch who has a job-creating profile that fits with this district. Just like the problem that plagued Senate Republicans with candidates such as Sharon Angle and Todd
 Akin, in 2014 House Republicans will face a primary electorate that picks tough-to-elect nominees like Mark Sanford."

DRIVING THE WEEK IN VIRGINIA-There are two big stories in Virginia's gubernatorial race right now: Democrat Terry McAuliffe's record at the electric car company GreenTech and his previously unreported departure from the company; and Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli's ties to Star Scientific, a company under investigation by Cuccinelli's office. Both sides have been hammering these issues home for days; both are stories that are likely to be ongoing in the race between now and November. Republicans were already painting McAuliffe's tenure at GreenTech as problematic, even before the news of his departure came out; for Democrats, Star Scientific is evidence that Cuccinelli has a
 conflict of interest at his day job. Not surprisingly, this is what both campaigns will be focusing on this week:

Cuccinelli's campaign will release a 3-minute video this morning outlining concerns about McAuliffe and his departure from GreenTech. The video rounds up video clips and coverage of McAuliffe's GreenTech departure. Watch: 
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 McAuliffe's campaign and the Virginia Democrats will continue to push Cuccinelli to answer more questions about Star Scientific. On a conference call this morning, three Democratic leaders-Senate Democratic Caucus Chair Donald McEachin, House Democratic Leader David Toscano and Democratic Party of Virginia chairwoman Charniele Herring will call on Cuccinelli to resign as attorney general.

OFA PUSHES SENATORS IN GUN CONTROL ADS: Organizing for Action, the Obama advocacy arm, is running online ads against 11 Republican Senators over their position on gun control legislation. Included in the ads: Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, Georgia Sens. Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson, Indiana Sen. Dan Coats, Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, Maine Sen. Susan Collins, Nevada Sen. Dean Heller, New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich, Ohio Sen. Rob Portman and Texas Sen Ted Cruz. "Tell Congress: Act now!" says the text of the ads, which are running on Facebook and in search engines. "Too many Americans are dying from gun violence & Congress needs to act. Call Sen. Collins!"

MASSACHUSETTS SENATE SIREN-Outside spending in the special Senate election has already topped $1.25 million, per the AP. The biggest recipient: Democratic Rep. Ed Markey, who's received more than $545,000 in help from the League of Conservation Voters. 
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NEW YORK MAYOR-OUTSIDE GROUP SPENDS BIG AGAINST QUINN: The New York Times reports on an outside group that's pledging big money to defeat New York City mayoral candidate Christine Quinn. From the story: "The organizers have pledged more than $1 million to the campaign and are spending $250,000 for the initial television advertising, said Scott Levenson, president of the Advance Group, which produced the spot. Another commercial is to be released this week, followed by several mailers and radio ads. ... The coalition opposing Ms. Quinn is called NYC Is Not for Sale 2013 and appears to be a successor to a group that actively opposed Mr. Bloomberg's 2009 re-election bid. It also includes an
 animal-rights group, NYClass, that has long fought with Ms. Quinn over horse-drawn carriages and other issues. But the coalition also includes Democrats who had previously been major donors to Ms. Quinn." 
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2014 NEWS-

IOWA SENATE-KING 'CLOSE' TO A DECISION: Iowa Rep. Steve King, who's been publicly mulling a bid for Senate in the Hawkeye State since Tom Harkin announced his retirement, said this weekend that he's "close" to making his decision after polling in the race and holding strategy meetings. "Now, I can tell you that I can see a path to victory that I couldn't see a week or a little more ago," he said. King's not the only Republican pol looking closely at his options in the race: there's also Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds, who'd get the backing of Gov. Terry Branstad and most establishment Republicans in the race if she gets in, and secretary of agriculture Bill Northey is another top prospect who would
 likely run if Reynolds doesn't. 
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MICHIGAN SENATE-DINGELL MULLING A BID: Debbie Dingell, wife of Rep. John Dingell, is reportedly thinking about launching a bid for Senate in Michigan. Alex Burns reported late last week that she met with national Democratic groups to discuss her prospects: "Dingell, a former General Motors executive and the wife of Democratic Rep. John Dingell, has met with a range of labor groups in Michigan and Washington D.C., as well as the influential Democratic women's group EMILY's List, sources said. She has also had conversations with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which has not weighed in publicly on a potential Senate primary." So far, no other candidates have announced their
 intention to run, though a handful of state pols on both sides of the aisle are considering it. 
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PENNSYLVANIA GOVERNOR-SCHWARTZ MAKES IT OFFICIAL: After months of baby steps toward launching a gubernatorial challenge to Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania, Democratic Rep. Allyson Schwartz made it official Monday when she filed paperwork to establish a state campaign committee. The step means Schwartz - who's known for her fundraising prowess at the DCCC - can start fundraising. Her staffers told the Philly Inquirer that she has $3.1 million in her congressional campaign account that will be transferred over to her gubernatorial campaign - a sizable sum to start with. Schwartz starts off as the first top-tier candidate in the Democratic primary, but she may not be the only one: state treasurer
 Rob McCord is taking active steps toward a bid and a handful of other Keystone State Dems are mulling their prospects as well. The Schwartz-McCord sparks have already started flying, so his entrance into the race could make for a particularly nasty primary. 
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LOUISIANA SENATE-LANDRIEU CLARIFIES ON SAME-SEX MARRIAGE: Sen. Mary Landrieu is one of just three Democratic Senators who hasn't endorsed same-sex marriage - and despite her apparent personal beliefs she's sticking to that position. Landrieu she believes that 'people should love who they love and marry who they want to marry," but that her political position on the issue will continue to reflect the views of her constituents. "My state has a very strong constitutional amendment not only against gay marriage but against gay partnerships. So I&#39;m looking at the people of Louisiana trying to represent their interests,' she said. The only other Democrat up for reelection in 2014 who hasn't
 endorsed same-sex marriage is Mark Pryor of Arkansas (who's also running in a red state). Per the Harper poll mentioned above, 60 percent of the state's voters oppose legalizing same-sex marriage (compared with 21 percent in favor), so if Landrieu is basing her position on the views of her constituents it's not likely to change any time soon. 
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ILLINOIS GOVERNOR-MADIGAN OUTRAISES QUINN: If Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan wants to take on sitting Gov. Pat Quinn in the Democratic primary, it looks like she'll have the cash to do it. Madigan raised just over $750,000 in the first quarter of 2013 - considerably more than Quinn's $550,000. Madigan hasn't made her plans for 2014 known yet, though she'd be considered a strong challenger to Quinn if she chooses to get in the race-and her fundraising numbers show she'd be well positioned to do just that. Still, Quinn's fundraising haul suggests that he's making an effort too - which, despite confirmation from him on this front, is a sign he's planning to run again. 
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NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE-SENATOR SCOTT BROWN? Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown has been saying since his loss in November that he's not done with politics, which most people assumed meant he was setting his sights either on another Senate run or a campaign for governor in 2014. But could he run in the Granite State instead? Asked after a GOP dinner last week in Nashua, N.H., whether he'd be open to challenging sitting New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in 2014, Brown told reporters that he's "not going to rule anything out right now." He said New Hampshire is "like a second home" for him, noting that he owns a house there and has paid taxes there for 20 years. Is it likely that Brown would
 run (and get elected) in a state other than the one he represented in the Senate? Probably not. But it's an interesting, and unexpected, prospect nonetheless. 
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GEORGIA HOUSE/SENATE-NRCC RUNS MASTERS ADS AGAINST BARROW: Democratic Rep. John Barrow may not have made up his mind yet about running for the open Senate seat in Georgia, but national Republicans are already going after him in his reelection race for the state's GOP-leaning 12th district. The NRCC is going on air during the Masters golf tournament, which takes place in Barrow's district, hitting him for his record on spending. Barrow is a perennial top target for House Republicans, so the focus on him this early isn't surprising; still, all the attention he's getting from the NRCC might give him even more reason to consider the open Senate seat next year instead of running for reelection
 in his House district. 
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2016 WATCH-

EARLY-STATE DAYBOOK: It's April 2013, which apparently is the prime time for all 2016 hopefuls to start flocking to early states. Here's a rundown of who's going to be where in the next few weeks: April 15: Rick Santorum speaks to Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition in Urbandale. May 3: Ted Cruz speaks at South Carolina GOP Silver Elephant Dinner in Columbia, S.C. May 10: Rand Paul keynotes Iowa GOP Lincoln Day dinner. May 20: Paul speaks at New Hampshire GOP's Liberty Dinner. May 23: Scott Walker headlines Polk County GOP fundraiser in West Des Moines, Iowa.

HILLARY'S RETURN TO THE PUBLIC STAGE: It's been a big week for the Hillary Clinton will-she-or-won't-she guessing game: the former Secretary of State made her first two public appearances since she left Foggy Bottom and also signed a book deal for next year. Supporters of a potential Clinton presidential bid are already lining up to make their preference known: outside an awards ceremony at the Kennedy Center in D.C. last Tuesday, where Clinton delivered a short speech in honor of one award recipient, over 200 supporters gathered with signs that said "Ready for Hillary!" What Clinton will ultimately decide to do isn't clear yet, and probably won't be for some time - but her return to the
 public eye, coupled with the book deal and her announcement about same-sex marriage a few weeks ago, are certainly a sign she's not pulling back anytime soon. 
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JINDAL SCRAPS TAX PLAN: Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal told the state legislature Monday that he's throwing out his controversial plan to eliminate the state income tax. 'I realize that some of you think I haven&#39;t been listening. But you&#39;ll be surprised to learn I have been,' he said, per prepared remarks. 'And here is what I&#39;ve heard from you and from the people of Louisiana - yes, we do want to get rid of the income tax, but governor you&#39;re moving too fast and we aren&#39;t sure that your plan is the best way to do it." The plan, Jindal's stated policy focus for the year, had hit roadblocks in the state legislature and received criticism from lawmakers and the business
 community. 
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RICK PERRY said he's "indeed" open to running for president again in 2016, and that he'll start thinking about the prospect once Texas's legislative session is over. 
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LIGHTER CLICKS-

SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE took on Obama's comments about Kamala Harris's appearance. 
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CHELSEA CLINTON says she's open to running for office someday. 
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LADY GAGA turned down a $1 million offer to perform at the Republican convention last year. 
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CUBA GOODING JR. starred in a 2009 made-for-TV movie about Ben Carson. 
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CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I ran for god damn Congress!" -Former Rhode Island congressional candidate Michael G. Riley, in what might be one of the most creative attempts to get out of an arrest for drunk driving. 
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