Subject: David Hale Global Forecast: Will Strong Growth Set the Stage for the End of Unconventional Monetary Policy?
From: "David Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 23 Jan 2014 13:45:16 -0800 (PST)

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Dear R. Hunter,

Growth will accelerate across the world in 2014 following a year that 
saw the pace of the recovery stall due to both advanced and developing 
economies undertaking important structural reforms. Nearly every region 
will see stronger growth this year than last. Despite this relatively 
benign macroeconomic outlook, many political risks remain throughout the 
world. Attached you will find our latest forecast, "Will Strong Growth 
Set the Stage for the End of Unconventional Monetary Policy?"

Key conclusions to the forecast include:

The US economy should grow by 3% or more in 2014 due to waning fiscal 
drag, a strong housing market, and a recovering consumer

The Federal Reserve may tighten policy sooner than expected at the end 
of this year if certain developments occur

The Eurozone is expected to grow around 1% this year as certain 
countries begin to reap the gains from recent reforms

Japanese growth will cool in 2014 because of the upcoming VAT increase, 
but the positive inflation trend is likely to persist

Chinese growth should be bolstered by trade this year

While exports will spur Asian growth in 2014, significant political 
risks are present throughout the region

As always, we welcome any questions or comments.

With all best wishes,

David Hale 

Chairman

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

546 Lincoln Avenue, 2 nd  Floor

Winnetka, Illinois 60093 USA

847-386-6009 (tel)

847-386-6011 (fax)

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