Subject: POLITICO’s Morning Score: Dems contemplate abandoning the House to save the Senate—Crist leads Scott by 8 in new Quinnipiac Fla. poll—Santorum PAC endorses Schultz in IA-03—Grimm’s threats make his reelection bid tougher—Could Peterson retire in MN-07?—Sarvis to run in Va. Senate race
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 30 Jan 2014 05:08:58 -0600

By Emily Schultheis (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] ; Twitter: @emilyrs)

BREAKING THIS MORNING-CRIST LEADS SCOTT BY 8: A new, just-released Quinnipiac poll finds Democrat Charlie Crist leading Florida GOP Gov. Rick Scott by 8 points, 46 percent to 38 percent. That&#39;s fairly similar to the margins in Quinnipiac&#39;s last poll of the race, when Crist led by 7. A big part of Crist&#39;s lead is his advantage among independents: the Democrat has a 16-point lead among independent voters (48%-32%), the poll finds. He also leads among women by 16 points (50%-34%) and among Hispanic voters by 26 points (52%-26%). Full results: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db25e92bdda6cd74e4a646361992066da7838a4a8776243b5ed81a5f3570f8a6 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db25e92bdda6cd74e4a646361992066da7838a4a8776243b5ed81a5f3570f8a6 

THE BIG PICTURE-FORGET ABOUT THE HOUSE, SAVE THE SENATE: POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "With only so much money to go around in an election year that is tilting the GOP's way, Democrats need to concentrate resources on preserving the chamber they have now. Losing the Senate, they know, could doom whatever hopes Barack Obama has of salvaging the final years of his presidency. ... The shift comes as House Democrats are raking in big money for the midterms, outperforming both Senate Democrats and their House GOP counterparts. Buoyed by the tea party-led government shutdown and an energetic push from Pelosi, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee brought in more than $70 million through
 the end of November, compared with $48 million for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Despite being in the minority, the DCCC has outraised the National Republican Congressional Committee by $15 million. And House Majority PAC, a leading Democratic outside group that invests in congressional races, raised $7.5 million in 2013, nearly double the amount it took in during the first year of the 2012 election cycle." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db25e92bdda6cd74e49c853561a3af957b59480d1645aa9c4b7376cae7eee6b0 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db25e92bdda6cd74e49c853561a3af957b59480d1645aa9c4b7376cae7eee6b0 

FIRST IN SCORE-SANTORUM ENDORSES SCHULTZ IN IA-03: Rick Santorum and his Patriot Voices PAC will endorse Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz today in the race for the state's open 3rd district seat. "As Iowa's Secretary of State, Matt has led the fight for voter integrity and insuring each vote counts. I have no doubt that Matt will bring this same leadership to the Halls of Congress on issues like fiscal responsibility and job creation for working families," Santorum says in a statement. "My wife Karen and I are both proud to wholeheartedly endorse Matt's candidacy.I look forward to joining Matt on the campaign trail soon." Schultz is in the midst of a crowded GOP primary to replace
 retiring GOP Rep. Tom Latham that also includes former Chuck Grassley aide David Young, state Sen. Brad Zaun, and others. Schultz and Santorum go way back: the Iowa pol endorsed Santorum's 2012 presidential bid, and Santorum had endorsed Schultz for his statewide run in 2010.

GRIMM REELECTION PROSPECTS: Isenstadt reports on what's next for New York Rep. Michael Grimm: "Grimm was already facing a tough reelection. His post-State of the Union blowup could make it even tougher. A moderate Republican who represents a swing Staten Island district, Grimm has been atop Democratic target lists for months. National Democratic strategists have been talking up the idea of spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to unseat the second-term congressman. They want to hit the airwaves with TV ads casting him as a tea party figure who's too conservative for his district. ... Some Republicans worried that the memorable images would provide Democrats with more fodder for attacks
 this fall. &#39;It's going to have an impact on the race...He's been very angry and very aggressive. It's the State of the Union. It's a solemn event,&#39; said Leticia Remauro, a former Staten Island Republican Party chairwoman. &#39;People are going to ask, 'What's going on here?'&#39;' 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db25e92bdda6cd7466fd2ec4ef0aa49d258057174d2041499d866c4a4e4f700b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db25e92bdda6cd7466fd2ec4ef0aa49d258057174d2041499d866c4a4e4f700b 

As Collin Peterson looks toward March 1st, Charlie Crist reportedly gets a new campaign head and the SOTU press releases finally die down, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the 2014 midterms.

DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION: 278.

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Morning Score. As always, send your tips, thoughts, and suggestions to 
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked]  or tweet them to @emilyrs.

RATINGS CHANGES THIS WEEK: Sabato shifts VA-10 (retiring Rep. Frank Wolf's seat) from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Republican." Also, Crystal Ball tests out ratings for a handful of Senate primaries: HI-Sen is "Leans Schatz," KS-Sen is "Likely Roberts," KY-Sen is "Likely McConnell," MS-Sen is "Leans Cochran," SC-Sen is "Leans Graham," TN-Sen is "Likely Alexander," TX-Sen is "Safe Cornyn" (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db25e92bdda6cd74b8c662a31bdc34a92070b53735b0c4f6f45d8c6d1c74a263 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db25e92bdda6cd74b8c662a31bdc34a92070b53735b0c4f6f45d8c6d1c74a263 ).

RETIREMENT WATCH-PETERSON DELAYS DECISION: Minnesota Rep. Collin Peterson is high on national Republicans' list of Democratic House targets this year-and he's giving signals that he may be the next incumbent Democrat in a tough district to retire. In an interview with The Hill Wednesday, Peterson certainly didn't sound like an enthusiastic candidate: he said that after being in "farm bill hell," he'll take a few weeks to think and make a decision by March 1. "Then I have to do my regular process: get the campaign together, figure out what I am going to run on, all the different things that need to be done,' he said. 'Probably by the first of March I&#39;ll know. At this point I am raising
 money. I&#39;m doing all that but I&#39;m going to do a gut check.' If Peterson decided not to run, he'd join a list of fellow retiring Democrats in red districts such as Rep. Jim Matheson (UT-04) and Rep. Mike McIntyre (NC-07). It would be tough for Democrats to win Peterson's district with another candidate. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db25e92bdda6cd74cdebf55fcfd395794fddfc5a25a7302824c4a0ff125075a5 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db25e92bdda6cd74cdebf55fcfd395794fddfc5a25a7302824c4a0ff125075a5 

2013 DEJA VU? SARVIS ANNOUNCES SENATE BID: Robert Sarvis, the libertarian candidate who won 6.5 percent of the vote in Virginia's gubernatorial election last year, will be back on the statewide ballot again this year. Sarvis told the Richmond Times-Dispatch on Wednesday that he plans to challenge Democratic Sen. Mark Warner in the midterm election. "I finally got the go-ahead from my wife and told the Libertarian Party folks that I am going to run," he said. It won&#39;t be easy, with a presumably well-funded Warner and GOP candidate Ed Gillespie making this a high-profile race-but Sarvis did better than many observers expected last fall, and he's banking on that same trend again this year. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7fa4162e27a0fe73f33d14d609bdd1245ad5260b39217304db 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7fa4162e27a0fe73f33d14d609bdd1245ad5260b39217304db 

LOTS OF NEW 2016 NUMBERS-

-Washington Post/ABC: Clinton 53%, Christie 41%; Clinton leads Democratic primary with 73%, compared with 12% for Joe Biden and 8% for Elizabeth Warren; Paul Ryan leads GOP primary with 20%, compared with 18% for Jeb Bush, 13% for Christie, 12% for Ted Cruz, 11% for Rand Paul and 10% for Marco Rubio. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7ff4bdb711611ebe36a3593d8665d44608a0c93d5b20ce94ce 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7ff4bdb711611ebe36a3593d8665d44608a0c93d5b20ce94ce 

-WMUR Granite State poll: Democratic primary: Clinton 74%, Biden 10%, Andrew Cuomo 2%, Mark Warner 1%. Republican primary: Paul 16%, Kelly Ayotte 13%, Scott Brown 11%, Christie 9%, Ryan 6%, Rubio 6%, Donald Trump 4%, Bush 3%, Cruz 3%, Scott Walker 2%, Rick Perry 2%. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f295ff653afe915550c63dfc3bc35bd7602641de8551ec8a8 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f295ff653afe915550c63dfc3bc35bd7602641de8551ec8a8 

-PPP: GOP primary: Mike Huckabee 16%, Bush 14%, Christie 13%, Paul 11%, Cruz 8%, Rubio 8%, Ryan 8%, Walker 6%, Jindal 5%. Clinton leads all GOP candidates by small margins: she bests Christie 45-43, Bush 45-43, Ryan 46-44, Huckabee and Paul 46-43, Cruz 47-41. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f571ff060b94d36fea845f2f3b0a3349eb4043f98c5a32b78 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f571ff060b94d36fea845f2f3b0a3349eb4043f98c5a32b78 

2016 SIREN-Jeb Bush says he'll think about it: "I'm going to think about it later [a run for president]. I don't wake up each day saying, 'What am I going to do today to make this decision?' I'm deferring the decision to the right time which is later this year and the decision will be based on, can I do it joyfully, because I think we need to have candidates lift our spirits. It's a pretty pessimistic country right now; and, is it right for my family? So I don't even want to think about that till it's the right time and that's later on." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7fffea1ad1ee4a46a518a9d560aafa9ff8c77e01116058ec32 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7fffea1ad1ee4a46a518a9d560aafa9ff8c77e01116058ec32 

SOTU EMAIL OVERLOAD-For those of you who were just as drowned in press releases Tuesday night as your Score correspondent, POLITICO Magazine's Elizabeth Ralph looks at the art of the State of the Union press release: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f976aaa0dc6d17645b44a5132f080a17906a70f68a8606ff9 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f976aaa0dc6d17645b44a5132f080a17906a70f68a8606ff9 

ACROSS THE MAP-Here are Score's top quick takes from races around the country:

SENATE-

-KY-Sen: A Public Policy Polling/Americans United for Change poll found Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leading Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes by just 1 point, 45 percent to 44 percent: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f14f3af0b85fcc5b98f758eb30e74da90fc992a27bbe85355 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f14f3af0b85fcc5b98f758eb30e74da90fc992a27bbe85355 

-GA-Sen: PPP/AUC also did a poll in Georgia, which finds Democratic candidate Michelle Nunn with small leads over four of her potential GOP opponents: Rep. Paul Broun (42-41), Rep. Phil Gingrey (45-41), former Secretary of State Karen Handel (44-40) and Rep. Jack Kingston (44-42). 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f04a1081c53e3f4895b6b5fa1979612841e593f589a98b154 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f04a1081c53e3f4895b6b5fa1979612841e593f589a98b154 

-OK-Sen: GOP Rep. Jim Bridenstine won't run for retiring Sen. Tom Coburn's seat: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f0077143207923bf0dd23cd22fbd335dcd2099cb4f606086b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f0077143207923bf0dd23cd22fbd335dcd2099cb4f606086b 

HOUSE-

-CO-06: Democrat Andrew Romanoff outraised incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Coffman in the 4th quarter: Romanoff brought in $458,943, compared with $405,000 for Coffman. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7ffe506df062f55dda21b988e8ead86328d821c83e04b18467 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7ffe506df062f55dda21b988e8ead86328d821c83e04b18467 

-NJ-03: Evesham Mayor Randy Brown, a Republican, says he won't run for retiring GOP Rep. Jon Runyan's seat. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7fb993f875745634171e63ec8924ce8f9ddfc8445f2a11efe1 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7fb993f875745634171e63ec8924ce8f9ddfc8445f2a11efe1 

-MA-06: Former state Sen. Richard Tisei raised $435,000 in the 4th quarter of 2013 for his rematch against incumbent Democratic Rep. John Tierney. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f3907efc9c867e96c0741c6c9bc46cf8e52333f0593c4a286 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f3907efc9c867e96c0741c6c9bc46cf8e52333f0593c4a286 

-CA-11: Retiring Rep. George Miller endorses Democratic state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier as his successor. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7fa381fa3469612387210b304424b87e9db5af13200835f864 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7fa381fa3469612387210b304424b87e9db5af13200835f864 

GOVERNORS-

-OH-Gov: Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune seems serious about his decision to challenge Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald for the Democratic nomination in Ohio: he's reportedly talking to former Toledo Mayor Jack Ford as a potential running mate. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f276d10876e5191eea7a9efdf6e208cfeca0ca29bcc85d548 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f276d10876e5191eea7a9efdf6e208cfeca0ca29bcc85d548 

-WI-Gov: GOP Gov. Scott Walker will greet President Obama when he arrives in Wisconsin today. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f6fe52bf9c18c97dea85dd92983759e26d34e76de83d9f067 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f6fe52bf9c18c97dea85dd92983759e26d34e76de83d9f067 

-FL-Gov: Democrat Charlie Crist reportedly finds his new campaign manager. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7fc017be6df6daea2b50908361b37a669a840950d5529abdc8 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7fc017be6df6daea2b50908361b37a669a840950d5529abdc8 

CODA-QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Ten-ten is no nine-nine-nine." -Herman Cain, re-upping his famous 2012 tax plan when asked about the minimum wage increase for federal workers 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f245fd32f626f22e7596a037dbec8f91b54bbfc0252632fb8 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35dfcc8d32cd4a7f245fd32f626f22e7596a037dbec8f91b54bbfc0252632fb8 

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