Subject: POLITICO’s Morning Score, presented by POWERJobs: Pryor ads hit Cotton on Medicare—Sabato’s top six overrated races of 2014—EMILY’s List goes on offense against McConnell—AFP buys big in four races this week—Paul, Huckabee to N.H.
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 05 Feb 2014 04:43:51 -0600

By Emily Schultheis (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] ; Twitter: @emilyrs)

FIRST IN SCORE-PRYOR ADS HIT COTTON ON MEDICARE: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor's campaign is out with two new ads in Arkansas today, both featuring women criticizing GOP Rep. Tom Cotton on Medicare. The ads are part of a six-figure buy and will run statewide on broadcast television. The first ad, "Linda," features an older woman: "Retirement is just around the corner for us. That's why I was so concerned when I read Congressman Cotton voted to change Medicare into a voucher system," she says. The second, "Courtney," has a younger woman talking about the effect of Medicare reform on her parents and grandparents: "It says here that Cotton voted in Congress to change Medicare into a voucher
 system that will increase out of pocket expenses for every senior in Arkansas, thousands of dollars every year," she says. "My grandma and grandpa can't afford that, and neither can my parents." Pryor is perhaps national Republicans' #1 target this year-and he's already been the target of a slew of outside ads in the race. Watch both ads: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b34062235edfeb23239d9ee9ae181d7cc31247e2d9d00e3e2 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b34062235edfeb23239d9ee9ae181d7cc31247e2d9d00e3e2  and 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896ba2ad5c79e8333152fe9e8fe8b80dfb5f7b12638cbac46afd 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896ba2ad5c79e8333152fe9e8fe8b80dfb5f7b12638cbac46afd 

THE SIX MOST OVERRATED RACES, via Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik: "1. Kentucky Senate: The odds of McConnell, even with his weak approval ratings, losing either the primary or general election are not impressive. ... 2. Texas Governor: Davis's chances of winning are the same now as they were a couple months ago-tiny. In our Crystal Ball election ratings, we call this race "Safe Republican" ... by November, we'll guess many will wonder what all the fuss was about. ... 3. New York Governor: The Democrat, incumbent Andrew Cuomo, seems just about invincible ... 4. Virginia Senate: If Virginia bordered, say, Montana, as opposed to the District of Columbia, we suspect we'd be hearing less about it.
 ... 5 and 6. Ohio and Wisconsin Governor: Govs. John Kasich and Scott Walker ... both have excellent chances of winning reelection in 2014, contrary to what might be reported elsewhere. We suspect polls will remain somewhat close in these races until the end, but it's hard to see their Democratic opponents, Ed FitzGerald (Ohio) and Mary Burke (Wisconsin), getting to the statehouse." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b88c46b671d7a8fcfb812ae3514e3d3174caf2f14cd5ec896 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b88c46b671d7a8fcfb812ae3514e3d3174caf2f14cd5ec896 

SCORE PREVIEW-EMILY's LIST GOES ON OFFENSE AGAINST MCCONNELL: On the 21st anniversary of the Family Medical Leave Act, the pro-Democratic women's group EMILY's List is using the issue to hit Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The group is launching an online effort to hit McConnell over his opposition to the law when it first passed. "When Mitch McConnell voted against the Family Medical Leave Act, he voted against ... taking maternity leave, parents caring for sick children, caring for aging parents," one online display ad says. EMILY's List has endorsed McConnell's Democratic challenger, Alison Lundergan Grimes, in Kentucky's Senate race.

As another congressman announces he's leaving, AFP spends big and Mark Warner talks Bieber, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the 2014 midterms.

DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION: 272.

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Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Morning Score. As always, send your tips, thoughts, and suggestions to 
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked]  or tweet them to @emilyrs.

AS CHRISTIE FALLS, WALKER RISES: POLITICO's Anna Palmer looks at one person in particular who gains from New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's ongoing Bridgegate troubles: "Republican strategists say no one is in a better position to get a boost from the Christie Bridgegate scandal than Walker, who stepped into the national spotlight ... when he won a [2012] union-fueled recall election in Wisconsin. In conversations about the 2016 field with Republican strategists, operatives and donors in the weeks since the scandal first gripped the Christie administration, many volunteered Walker as the potential candidate they plan to watch and, unprompted, said he is getting renewed attention in
 conservative circles. ... Walker's reputation is as a conservative's conservative who can still win over moderates. That's an attractive combination for party insiders who need a candidate who can survive a GOP primary and still pivot to the national stage with broad appeal." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b703292e26e01800fcfa6df8d7703bc9518513e43c1a9be76 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b703292e26e01800fcfa6df8d7703bc9518513e43c1a9be76 

AFP GOES BIG IN SENATE, HOUSE RACES: The conservative group Americans for Prosperity has had an expensive week-and it's only Wednesday. The group is going in big against four incumbent Democrats: it's launching a three-week Obamacare-related buy against Mark Pryor in Arkansas (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b6a3c9e6ca33759c1de3e310ee0880598f97c0caa7d2886e2 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b6a3c9e6ca33759c1de3e310ee0880598f97c0caa7d2886e2 ), dropped $1.4 million on anti-Kay Hagan ads in North Carolina (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896bb5d8741fd437da8a4a22996df3205075614f265961ea53d2 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896bb5d8741fd437da8a4a22996df3205075614f265961ea53d2 ), began running an ad against West Virginia Rep. Nick Rahall (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b2539e4a2dd791551f3820321771e33a98ea79a94c0e839ef 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b2539e4a2dd791551f3820321771e33a98ea79a94c0e839ef ) and today will launch a $150,000, three-week buy in GOP Rep. Steve Southerland's Florida district (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896bfb251fca683d012c638136443ba1111913caf96838e52f55 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896bfb251fca683d012c638136443ba1111913caf96838e52f55 ). AFP will release the details of its Florida ad later this morning, so stay tuned for that. The group has already proven itself to be one of the biggest outside GOP players of 2014-and unlike several of the other big-spending GOP groups, it's setting its sights on hitting Democrats rather than incumbent GOP members, making it a potent part of the early general-election landscape.

RETIREMENT DU JOUR-ANDREWS RESIGNS, PAVES WAY FOR NORCROSS: New Jersey Democratic Rep. Rob Andrews is resigning from Congress to take a job with a law firm in Philadelphia, he announced Tuesday, opening up the district he's held for more than two decades. State Sen. Donald Norcross quickly announced his candidacy after Andrews's announcement, and is already getting the backing of much of New Jersey's Democratic establishment. Senate President Stephen Sweeney, Assembly Majority Leader Louis Greenwald and state Sen. Fred Madden, the Gloucester County Democratic chairman, have all backed Norcross for the reliably blue district. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b3049547b0d46f14ea84b06e4bdc66d7c53fff843cb0de9a1 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b3049547b0d46f14ea84b06e4bdc66d7c53fff843cb0de9a1 

GRANITE STATE ALERT-Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee will speak at a Citizens United/Americans for Prosperity event in Manchester on April 12. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b7e6c1a3ffd79de5b1170173002e13b8143f9cc46ed55e362 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b7e6c1a3ffd79de5b1170173002e13b8143f9cc46ed55e362 

LIGHTER CLICK-In honor of Jay Leno's final days on "The Tonight Show," the Center for Media and Public Affairs at George Mason University rounded up his top 20 political joke targets of all time. Topping the list: former Presidents Bill Clinton (4,607 jokes) and George W. Bush (3,239 jokes): 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896bdc60f2c67b1bd8ca95fd4c6d991c1d825fc4fad6e3ac397d 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896bdc60f2c67b1bd8ca95fd4c6d991c1d825fc4fad6e3ac397d 

ACROSS THE MAP-Here are Score's top quick takes from races around the country:

SENATE-

-NH-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters is launching a $220,000 TV ad campaign in New Hampshire against former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b158b4a624ad57c4a0c7aeafdf1dad7f94dc9ae9f39cfe95f 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b158b4a624ad57c4a0c7aeafdf1dad7f94dc9ae9f39cfe95f 

-IA-Sen: GOP Senate candidate Mark Jacobs revealed a third statewide radio buy on Tuesday in his primary bid for retiring Sen. Tom Harkin&#39;s seat. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896bbd043c4d7fbcbef8a6045a3e0c5399d75eeb1f2029090fae 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896bbd043c4d7fbcbef8a6045a3e0c5399d75eeb1f2029090fae 

-GA-Sen: Citizens United's Political Victory Fund is out with a poll in which its endorsed candidate, GOP Rep. Paul Broun, comes in third in the primary matchups: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b81be666bb7d20fb4081bcad0398f69347fb2992ca06137ef 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b81be666bb7d20fb4081bcad0398f69347fb2992ca06137ef 

-SC-Sen: Det Bowers, a Columbia pastor, became the latest GOP primary challenger to Sen. Lindsey Graham: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b9bf7d4edcc83c6aed3e37b210f2e365d91c470a7ccb8e2d7 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b9bf7d4edcc83c6aed3e37b210f2e365d91c470a7ccb8e2d7 

-AK-Sen: An Alaska-based super PAC is out with a new ad backing Republican Dan Sullivan, one of the candidates vying for the chance to take on Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b20285616837f2c37b9a5ac23adb4e65381a33060264b71f5 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b20285616837f2c37b9a5ac23adb4e65381a33060264b71f5 

HOUSE-

-CA-33: Activist Sandra Fluke has filed candidate paperwork with the California Democratic Party, saying she's keeping her options open for a potential run to fill retiring Rep. Henry Waxman&#39;s seat. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b51889b209e1570d61d127c1c584786a977981dbd90b67f87 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b51889b209e1570d61d127c1c584786a977981dbd90b67f87 

-NH-01, NH-02: A new WMUR Granite State poll shows GOP candidate Frank Guinta leading Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in NH-01 and Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster leading both GOP opponents in NH-02. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896bd2a70d7d9056e72458a8d39fb9bb51ac0e32721d1366a738 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896bd2a70d7d9056e72458a8d39fb9bb51ac0e32721d1366a738 

-NY-21: Scott Murphy, a venture capitalist and former upstate congressman, won't run for retiring Rep. Bill Owens's seat. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b8d4cde95daa85369cd85b30f5fa31cacf227e790aac6ef65 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b8d4cde95daa85369cd85b30f5fa31cacf227e790aac6ef65 

-VA-10: Conservative state Del. Bob Marshall is considering jumping into the race for retiring Rep. Frank Wolf's seat, where he'd face fellow Republican state Del. Barbara Comstock. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896be2fad2695de62ab2f131c7a2825247eb981d65b17e9c91b2 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896be2fad2695de62ab2f131c7a2825247eb981d65b17e9c91b2 

GOVERNORS-

-MA-Gov: Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley leads Republican Charlie Baker by 13 points in a new Suffolk-Boston Herald poll. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b34f740c6af834e79543eb0318cd371b544559260936d411e 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b34f740c6af834e79543eb0318cd371b544559260936d411e 

-MN-Gov: Gov. Mark Dayton chose his chief of staff, Tina Smith, as his running mate for this year: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896babdb18ab67257c6f684a653e48500fab56f6131fd4699d0d 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896babdb18ab67257c6f684a653e48500fab56f6131fd4699d0d 

-TX-Gov: Former Dallas Cowboys running back and NFL MVP Emmitt Smith donated $10,000 to Democratic state Sen. Wendy Davis's campaign. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896ba2e5bbcb714bb64cde7c97f40b0a95626a38e267a869fb37 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896ba2e5bbcb714bb64cde7c97f40b0a95626a38e267a869fb37 

-OK-Gov: Democratic state Rep. Joe Dorman announced he'll challenge GOP Gov. Mary Fallin. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b27385a80ac9d3cd8c55def8dd8d31e92e2bbda792ff873a2 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b27385a80ac9d3cd8c55def8dd8d31e92e2bbda792ff873a2 

CODA-QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It&#39;s true: I&#39;m not a Belieber." -Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, who said on a local radio show Tuesday that he'd sign a petition to deport Justin Bieber back to Canada 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b4fdd4fe9d40d124402c5efac5d95f42bc6ef9f1e6d263082 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=242ee8bbb9b4896b4fdd4fe9d40d124402c5efac5d95f42bc6ef9f1e6d263082 

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