Subject: POLITICO’s Morning Score, presented by POWERJobs: American Crossroads polls in seven states show GOP’s Senate chances increasing—Walsh to be appointed in Montana?—McConnell super PAC video says Grimes, Beshear statements don’t add up—Grimes leads McConnell in new poll—Friday standings—Dems huddle on how to counter AFP
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Feb 2014 04:49:01 -0600

By Emily Schultheis (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] ; Twitter: @emilyrs)

With Jose DelReal

FIRST IN SCORE-CROSSROADS POLLS SHOW GOP AHEAD IN FIVE SENATE RACES: A series of Senate polls in seven states, commissioned by the Republican group American Crossroads, find the GOP leading in five of them (including the two-way head-to-head in Louisiana) and tied in a sixth. The polls, conducted by the GOP firm Harper Polling, find Democratic candidates trailing at least one GOP opponent in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Michigan and Montana; Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan ties one Republican in North Carolina but leads the others, and Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads in New Hampshire. Compared with the last round of Crossroads polling back in October (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4ad0e53317b24bc77861c9c5be4850ff29cc608d1478152d5fc20af6c550b28b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4ad0e53317b24bc77861c9c5be4850ff29cc608d1478152d5fc20af6c550b28b ), Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana all look better for Republicans today than they did then (and the other states weren't polled at the time). The Arkansas poll was conducted by live telephone and the other states were automated.

-Alaska: Democratic Sen. Mark Begich 41, Republican Mead Treadwell 47; Begich 41, Republican Dan Sullivan 47; Begich 51, Republican Joe Miller 32. Begich job approval: 41 percent approve, 47 percent disapprove. President Obama job approval: 31 percent approve, 61 percent disapprove. Margin of error: +/- 3.76 percent. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a2e702265bc5bd4fa4997aee717dadf5f184d4db1b17f17bcbbc8d72fa78981d 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a2e702265bc5bd4fa4997aee717dadf5f184d4db1b17f17bcbbc8d72fa78981d 

-Arkansas: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor 36, Republican Tom Cotton 42. Pryor job approval: 37 percent approve, 40 percent disapprove. Cotton favorability: 38 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable, 38 percent not sure. Obama job approval: 31 percent approve, 64 percent disapprove. Margin of error: +/- 4.24 percent. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d73a6d8bb3f3ed3fbaeb3b86fed8a0b70be8fd962fbc2fa98259fef3b6c7f7f9 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d73a6d8bb3f3ed3fbaeb3b86fed8a0b70be8fd962fbc2fa98259fef3b6c7f7f9 

-Louisiana: Four-way race: Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu 42, Republican Bill Cassidy 29, Republican Rob Maness 4, Republican Paul Hollis 4. Two-way race: Landrieu 44, Cassidy 45. Landrieu job approval: 40 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove. Obama job approval: 40 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove. Margin of error: +/- 3.11 percent. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4f63ff709c1ee5aa84110289d7d7e180370b27e5fd938642cb8bb07dfefb5e00 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4f63ff709c1ee5aa84110289d7d7e180370b27e5fd938642cb8bb07dfefb5e00 

-Michigan: Democrat Gary Peters 37, Republican Terri Lynn Land 42. Peters favorability: 18 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable, 59 percent not sure. Land favorability: 32 percent favorable, 22 percent unfavorable, 46 percent not sure. Obama job approval: 38 percent approve, 52 percent disapprove. Margin of error: +/- 3.58 percent. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5d98bf20e08f7e39dcf4ec030472ea9be7328476886fa55a43190562342cc14a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5d98bf20e08f7e39dcf4ec030472ea9be7328476886fa55a43190562342cc14a 

-Montana: Republican Steve Daines 43, Democrat John Walsh 29; Daines 43, Democrat John Bohlinger 32; Daines 44, Democrat Dirk Adams 20. Daines favorability: 40 percent favorable, 26 percent unfavorable, 34 percent not sure. Walsh favorability: 25 percent favorable, 13 percent unfavorable, 63 percent not sure. Bohlinger favorability: 33 percent favorable, 20 percent unfavorable, 47 percent not sure. Obama job approval: 36 percent approve, 56 percent disapprove. (Margin of error: +/- 4.3 percent.) Democratic primary vote: Walsh 23, Bohlinger 23, Adams 2; 52 percent weren't sure. Margin of error: +/- 4.84 percent. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d8066fe69bf392589684de340918eedfcd4b05331accef923c3e4de79c543e0 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d8066fe69bf392589684de340918eedfcd4b05331accef923c3e4de79c543e0  (general election) and 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a7c726a49f9e89fba8c72fd150a5d599e082eb40c99005c1e64b9551c8c63763 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a7c726a49f9e89fba8c72fd150a5d599e082eb40c99005c1e64b9551c8c63763  (primary).

-New Hampshire: Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen 40, Republican Scott Brown 35. Shaheen job approval: 46 percent approve, 31 percent disapprove. Brown favorability: 33 percent favorable, 26 percent unfavorable, 41 percent not sure. Obama job approval: 35 percent approve, 57 percent disapprove. Margin of error: +/- 4.33 percent. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a169e94e7a8f3669d4b7e65a997c680e6c9da60285c811172953317a2f01b0eb 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a169e94e7a8f3669d4b7e65a997c680e6c9da60285c811172953317a2f01b0eb 

-North Carolina: Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan 44, Republican Thom Tillis 44; Hagan 44, Republican Mark Harris 40. Hagan job approval: 36 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove. Obama job approval: 43 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b50d7b6a00d1a11487b261b05e374b1b4af009ba4a0407bc7466d49765e828cf 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b50d7b6a00d1a11487b261b05e374b1b4af009ba4a0407bc7466d49765e828cf 

BUT-KENTUCKY POLL HAS GOOD NEWS FOR DEMS: A SurveyUSA/Courier-Journal/WHAS-TV poll of the Kentucky Senate race finds Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes leading Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell by 4 points. Just 27 percent of voters view McConnell favorably, compared with 50 percent who view him unfavorably. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e746ec8d0064bed61cb1ea518d44150c6565c5f062ccc1ad872cda970ce060b1 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e746ec8d0064bed61cb1ea518d44150c6565c5f062ccc1ad872cda970ce060b1 

HAPPENING THIS MORNING-WALSH APPOINTMENT? Now that Montana Sen. Max Baucus has been confirmed to his post in China, all eyes turn to Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, who will announce his pick for Baucus's seat this morning. He is widely expected to appoint Democratic Lt. Gov. John Walsh, who's also national Democrats' preferred candidate in the race. The Missoulian, a Montana newspaper, reports that Walsh is the expected pick but that Bullock's office has been noncommittal thus far in its public comments. "I guess we'll have to see tomorrow," Kevin O'Brien, a deputy chief of staff to Bullock, told the paper when asked about Walsh. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=33d9bd768dc3d9511dd2b9c6d57715dfc8e6e4b5bed0dfe5a306e35515381b53 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=33d9bd768dc3d9511dd2b9c6d57715dfc8e6e4b5bed0dfe5a306e35515381b53 

As Dems work to counter AFP, Republican operatives assess the 2016 field and Joe Biden laments the state of American airports, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the 2014 midterms.

DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION: 270.

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Good Friday morning and welcome to Morning Score. As always, send your tips, thoughts, and suggestions to [email-masked] or tweet them to @emilyrs.

FRIDAY STANDINGS-It's been a busy first week of February. Here&#39;s Morning Score&#39;s weekly take on how some of the most important candidates, campaigns and political players should answer the question: Are you better off now than you were a week ago?

YES: (1) Americans for Prosperity, the conservative group that's gone in big in half a dozen races this week and gotten a lot of attention for it;(2) Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, who's back up with decent leads over all his GOP challengers in a new Quinnipiac poll this week after other recent polling had shown him perilously close to his opponents; and (3) Republican gubernatorial candidate Neel Kashkari, who's raised almost $1 million in just two weeks of his bid to defeat California Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=811c64ad7b2e4a24f5643bb4d7c349d3da9471b1c16bb53c5cb9a3a2405ff387 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=811c64ad7b2e4a24f5643bb4d7c349d3da9471b1c16bb53c5cb9a3a2405ff387 ).

NO: (1) Democrat Alex Sink, who's getting bombarded this week in FL-13 by negative ads from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Action Network, not to mention Republican David Jolly's campaign and the NRCC; (2) New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who saw his Bridgegate scandal flare up again; and (3) Mitch McConnell, who's trailing his Democratic opponent in the most recent poll of his race.

SCORE PREVIEW-MCCONNELL SUPER PAC ASKS, GRIMES OR BESHEAR? Following Democratic Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes's big jobs speech last night, the pro-Mitch McConnell super PAC Kentuckians for Strong Leadership is contrasting her statements on Kentucky job loss with what Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear has said on the issue. In a new web video, the group juxtaposes Grimes talking about the dismal job outlook-"we have lost over 118,000 jobs"-with Beshear saying things are good in the state ("roughly than 47,000 jobs were created"). "Who do you believe? Alison Grimes or the governor?" the video asks. Watch: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f3ace68bc1cc35c81de78cd7bc92208b9323ed24853dc8207c5887046dc80969 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f3ace68bc1cc35c81de78cd7bc92208b9323ed24853dc8207c5887046dc80969 

DEMS WORK TO COUNTER AFP'S BIG-DOLLAR BUYS: POLITICO's Alex Burns on Democrats sounding the alarm over how to counter the big recent ad buys by AFP: "The nonprofit Patriot Majority USA will begin airing TV ads over the next week in North Carolina and Arkansas, home to two highly competitive Senate contests that have seen considerable outside spending on the right. In a third race, the Alaska-based super PAC Put Alaska First will air ads defending Democratic Sen. Mark Begich from an ad campaign initiated by AFP. Two other Democratic groups - Senate Majority PAC and the League of Conservation Voters - are already on the air in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively. Democratic anxiety about the
 2014 midterm campaign has climbed in recent weeks, as polls have shown a growing list of incumbent senators facing difficult reelection fights amid a coast-to-coast spending blitz from AFP." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba48f550db5ca15d3182b36264c7cfe9c034fa03ffc890119fe9acb06a58481c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba48f550db5ca15d3182b36264c7cfe9c034fa03ffc890119fe9acb06a58481c 

SPEAKING OF-AFP IS AT IT AGAIN: In addition to AFP's earlier round of buys this week, the group is also putting $145,000 behind ads attacking California Rep. Scott Peters (CA-52) (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8c13801e4b8ebef63f1f3eac0555aed615b88fde936a0f7a1a599d6af3bbefcd 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8c13801e4b8ebef63f1f3eac0555aed615b88fde936a0f7a1a599d6af3bbefcd ), as well as another $400,000 against two Florida House members: Rep. Alan Grayson (FL-08) and Rep. Joe Garcia (FL-26): 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b522417ca558f25f9dbc05e01c106c969c8640c983dca3a3c64495c6fa7a1b31 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b522417ca558f25f9dbc05e01c106c969c8640c983dca3a3c64495c6fa7a1b31 

2016 BUZZ-POLITICO Magazine asked leading conservatives to weigh in on the post-Bridgegate 2016 field: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d99aaf0f99f88fdbd9bad1f643c22511ac3cfc7c9d5e138afc07a71f330653b7 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d99aaf0f99f88fdbd9bad1f643c22511ac3cfc7c9d5e138afc07a71f330653b7 

LIGHTER CLICK: There's a guy running for Congress in four separate states. (And people call Scott Brown a carpetbagger!) 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa218a1789999468bb0ebd76771d66d8f05fff5ead2fec2fd5fabd4e58429c75 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa218a1789999468bb0ebd76771d66d8f05fff5ead2fec2fd5fabd4e58429c75 

ACROSS THE MAP-Here are Score's top quick takes from races around the country:

SENATE-

-AR-Sen: Mark Pryor says he opposes the minimum wage increase. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=392e3d07aaaf5af0bfa1e0327addf9595056697f33336226db63c302fae3a0e1 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=392e3d07aaaf5af0bfa1e0327addf9595056697f33336226db63c302fae3a0e1 

-CO-Sen: A new Quinnipiac poll released Thursday has Democratic Sen. Mark Udall with only slight leads over his GOP opponents. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=37de4ff0dc41ed58fd6b5ba865d8d1963fcce7a0e124d88f4825938c64695d0d 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=37de4ff0dc41ed58fd6b5ba865d8d1963fcce7a0e124d88f4825938c64695d0d 

-MT-Sen: GOP Rep. Steve Daines has released his first ad, emphasizing his business experience rather than his time in Congress. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ded7ea5aa0cf1df810a781117e2a2d8a9c8149a4a499f8cc4ad581e716483bef 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ded7ea5aa0cf1df810a781117e2a2d8a9c8149a4a499f8cc4ad581e716483bef 

-SC-Sen: Sen. Lindsey Graham has a healthy lead against primary challengers according to two new polls: an internal poll from Graham's campaign finds him getting 50 percent and avoiding a runoff, while one from state Sen. Lee Bright&#39;s campaign says Graham won't hit 50 percent. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fd49af46732e4f22cd6de044bb0c34e06dbfedde7da70268a3564bf8f53b8505 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fd49af46732e4f22cd6de044bb0c34e06dbfedde7da70268a3564bf8f53b8505 

HOUSE-

-CA-33: California Attorney General Kamala Harris endorsed former Los Angeles Controller Wendy Greuel in the Democratic race for retiring Rep. Henry Waxman's seat. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c2dfb804c1a57bb9e389398c811a0215bfbbeb96470f4c3f252853511a09aeeb 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c2dfb804c1a57bb9e389398c811a0215bfbbeb96470f4c3f252853511a09aeeb 

-NC-06: GOP candidate Phil Berger Jr. is releasing an ad Friday in the race for retiring Rep. Howard Coble's seat. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=655c28287b7a9052c6768a7987fadc9fa8a6ffe1333079788d5bded93016168b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=655c28287b7a9052c6768a7987fadc9fa8a6ffe1333079788d5bded93016168b 

-TX-32: Rep. Pete Sessions, who is facing a primary challenge from Tea Party favorite Katrina Pierson, has released a new ad. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4f6ea31491a696a813b8394b3a087957727fddc418609a15388935952e75d385 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4f6ea31491a696a813b8394b3a087957727fddc418609a15388935952e75d385 

GOVERNORS-

-AZ-Gov: A new poll shows 72 percent of Democrats and 69 percent of Republicans are still undecided over who they support to succeed GOP Gov. Jan Brewer. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=bbeb3d1cae34213126adbba036ff1cd23a747083769db6c1b0fbc8add09ff0ee 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=bbeb3d1cae34213126adbba036ff1cd23a747083769db6c1b0fbc8add09ff0ee 

-TX-Gov: Democratic state Sen. Wendy Davis is joining her GOP rival Greg Abbott in saying she supports an 'open carry' law for gun owners with concealed handgun licenses. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4c5bf581ed19b62b6c6fd67d6bd758ea3a83e7db7af09905144c9a9816ccd354 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4c5bf581ed19b62b6c6fd67d6bd758ea3a83e7db7af09905144c9a9816ccd354 

-OH-Gov: Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, the Democrat challenging GOP Gov. John Kasich, wants Kasich to pledge that he'll serve out his term if elected and won't run for president in 2016. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f1e52b3c43820649f09f4d80aa098a0491e278d8627110b237194f19a7d7a6c9 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f1e52b3c43820649f09f4d80aa098a0491e278d8627110b237194f19a7d7a6c9 

CODA-QUOTE OF THE DAY: "If I took him blindfolded and took you to LaGuardia Airport in New York, you must think, 'I must be in some Third World country.' I'm not joking!" -Vice President Joe Biden, ever eloquent on the state of the United States' airport infrastructure 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2a9721850f2c88986a352a87c58f381d5c4db4e0ed82a0afaf29e9155b1f4700 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2a9721850f2c88986a352a87c58f381d5c4db4e0ed82a0afaf29e9155b1f4700 

TODAY: POLITICO Facebook Q & A with Dylan Byers on the future of media: What do the recent moves by Nate Silver, Ezra Klein, James Carville and other names mean? Ask your questions about this, the media's Olympics coverage, new digital journalism ventures, the shifting world of cable news and more at 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ad0540181172b4b0cf68e0fb46fd935e7df5379d57886e5ddaae100cef513e35 
www.facebook.com/politico , beginning at noon today. Byers will answer questions live at 4 p.m. ET.

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