Subject: 5 Nuggets from Today's NY Siena Poll
From: "Ryan Karben" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 25 Feb 2014 10:14:47 -0500 (EST)

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 Hunter

From today's Karben Copy [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyziu3ShuhUzi1zn1GWU6F5Vs4r4qN3c21Py2YhlygZlbA-2Cz684ydlW0zag6I0O11drusM-yg4412F85f34E9KzLBdabQkVRjpVDemfQMFAY4vIweXW30hjZg31AiHhMetbXVPP_q1WDZCZBWiJsUIBFTdY6qa5WSWJRabq3UoNG_b3NroM1lpgf]:

Siena College released a poll of New York voters this morning [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyzitkIxYXwamEXJE-Zl8xMeq3-IL7_62gYmEh1_KcP88cWJTjP1UGrfFqRNMEY6ggydezp2nFjEsbQfY9T95WxSuFBefGfQSKU3Ytb4thRSnB-SE5rdG5oMkdK90TGkCXPVeRvg4MQnOJN0CTMdjacqiexPKaAM1yAfs5vEdRB2Esbg==],
just as Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino is warming up [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyzivTDeQVlW_bw6rckjh5bNS9VY4kwjDRDrLUFR86PDfyb_bn4GcHHst0Bk0OB3vGfrulW2B_c0sCKfgfaabRfMVVNNdCSKd3EUtTdQRwXRE0YnYgdOPGs7E0pROvdPQbBy2xXyoms9hFgS-Fj9YW181oY6mHfKJDLt_vtXDZR3qnlhSBU85q_Bf6PEEgZCFVUMfijL43C-gjfQ==]
his very underdog campaign against popular Governor Andrew Cuomo.
Here's what I found interesting:
1. Ghost of Mario- Andrew Cuomo
has fully exorcised the ghost of Mario and shaken the political baggage with moderate
voters that could come with being the son of one of the county's most     impassioned
a [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyzisjFdlNzxphmxWfe6MnBZCbUgJYcfTAGhBS0vTROdWS15EDF4VT-M49i3-elAtLZg0K0LR2rSIAjxvOrFUA3RfDyPX0FBXtf83x-P0WnytO_qqO5nKNDihgUd2niL5SNfxRRP3S_Dw1fqylELf4OTspNq22zqWywncr8kweQ_xM_j_nhb1P9t1O-tuGK4ExgJN4E4ZnGUNMMoRVEo47d4WEds7Kw2SLjPj5EckOvmGdJmqKhUUJa3T56PO5sZfL1jXOwuZl_AUkjSANaStLX6SM7Gci9h7lYDE=]nd
eloquent liberal voices [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyzisjFdlNzxphmxWfe6MnBZCbUgJYcfTAGhBS0vTROdWS15EDF4VT-M49i3-elAtLZg0K0LR2rSIAjxvOrFUA3RfDyPX0FBXtf83x-P0WnytO_qqO5nKNDihgUd2niL5SNfxRRP3S_Dw1fqylELf4OTspNq22zqWywncr8kweQ_xM_j_nhb1P9t1O-tuGK4ExgJN4E4ZnGUNMMoRVEo47d4WEds7Kw2SLjPj5EckOvmGdJmqKhUUJa3T56PO5sZfL1jXOwuZl_AUkjSANaStLX6SM7Gci9h7lYDE=].
 61% of all New York voters call Cuomo a moderate or conservative.  But avoiding
 the caricature of a big government progressive carries a price with some elements
of the Democratic base- 13% of Democrats call Andrew Cuomo a conservative, including
24% of African-American voters.  But a primary from the left against Cuomo is a 
fool's errand [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyziviOwpcV1YI2fjFq4yDEj0CHMZULLGm_WtbM5ZywDdmek4cpyeMJBpCm0rIW86UedEmtuaRZxDNIF1uxMht8Gj1Px1jhKg9k8RokXHzqV3Z255e6jm2PSpYSOeqY0lpMFc0E9nk6fZ_Kt1FIv72dzfcDxb-ajsxaB2OuHQqgblrbTYXwqjc8_XvG4UnCJ8k4CAJal7UprC4CR6Heo3kstm7],
Astorino is taking hard right positions on social issues [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyziuSs8yBX4E-Es1AzKURQCIv2ZwQfBkZV9KFCZO9seL_XO3PaNoJnbLL-y8p11VSQgjvx0ElhPULSWLMWmp_qRW1Gq4SOGJI54UlVPcKSy2Ia9R0ApctK-n-7803yQwyJROQcC-s_-gVXNy0Bex0beuHwEBqA_gedtoFIUD63Vk5w4l0JJHvbPj2nMTMp7wklAs=]
and left-of-center voters will stick with the pro-choice, pro-gun control incumbent.
 Cuomo has deftly kept himself popular and in the center, maximizing his leverage
with Democratic interest groups in Albany while remaining a palatable moderate with
whom Republican voters permit their senators to do business.
2. Nobama- But Cuomo's relationship with moderate and conservative voters could 
go south quickly if he bear hugs President Obama.  Obama is a massive political 
liability upstate, where voters disapprove of him by a 58% to 39%.  Even in the 
suburbs- which Obama won handily in 2012 [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyzitibzvz-qV46WttWrKG8jX0aaHUfpye6Fe11bl6REaCmMNufijBz3KNPuMo6iF29_pfJIgZsR0PzUgFVUEBIbmJVix8VEylT06jsagII_WtKXiwtKhEtusUO72BfwmJ41rRp9_hLwL3c5G3i0ARxb2jbNukUQMspg4Niye5rf7bvS3QPLDPAErDBZZq-RBQ6aAQr4cvE4_FLZ-2l6LsqaeDlwsPfH73VWrHlm8mxcoFp4Pby_f5c9bs3rcC_C2up2MG6YPlgken-Lu6Al5_MrRoDU23DNdwj-U=]-
voters are evenly divided on the President's performance, with 48% rating Obama 
unfavorably compared with 47% viewing him favorably. Expect Astorino and NY Senate
Republicans to try to nationalize their campaigns with messages blasting Obamacare,
while Cuomo and state Democrats try to keep the conversation about New York.  Cuomo,
by virtue of being a governor, will win this argument, but it spells trouble for
 Democrats running for Congress (see #3).

3. House of Bad Cards- Democrats need to hold congressional seats like the one Rep.
Sean Patrick Maloney [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyziuM82yG2l_pWLqyeicUNLdraeM5VSDGaAwgKIa_h5jG4knoNcci6hO59GI2q9-GDLn56iFZdGnKGvV_HtFQ2dQwXNtyIQkXphsXNyxqxPYRp7b4GyuEIKkY]
wrested from Hudson Valley Republican Nan Hayworth [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyziupJ3DFgYQoZX03hEiYIg4Ftsj2uPXrYTJi_C2lK9wOv3dj8B8FVPwmm7KdAHqwsOjeG51iKEvU44sLQLR47OmYCSkvANAKuQDgSC3IfUSSq_-IA5KVP14_fdkBO8W1AUYV0jUoJA4Ojb4BTu7ues6W1G2_Z6PMo-ujOUP6kgkrQQ==]
in 2012.  This poll is a clear warning sign for Maloney, an obstacle for Sean Eldridge
[http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyziurxKpm_nCXyhxs_KGYB7yW2YB27kRTzeJ9D_8C4_l4cqEvzZ7TzCXU8q4vQlETmrMNwDmNlcOsNzSnWoNSdsjscYzmybxhvE7wi6pbL9chJw==]'s
attempt to knock of Rep. Chris Gibson and cause for pause by Congresswoman Nita 
Lowey.  This poll unequivocally demonstrates the bloom is off the Obama rose in 
the Hudson Valley.  Maloney will need to distance himself from the President to 
get re-elected while raising records amount of cash from uber-liberal donors. Expect
Hayworth to plaster the northern portions of this district with pictures of Maloney
and the President.

Eldridge, whose Facebook-founder husband Chris Hughes ran Obama's digital campaign
in 2008, already faced an uphill battle to knock off Rep. Chris Gibson [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyziu9JHFV0nYjvQCQT_OgC7f_UaqNRJw94twNQfqNiNwfsHmpiGUeiA_xkfMdPkrSgmMei1Tpsz0JEGGr4CFfaCh9bUx-5ulsOR3BKVr3q0hiUQ==],
who has styled himself as moderate in the radical GOP house and tended to the local
concerns of his sprawling 11-county district.  Eldridge's bio makes no mention of
his partisan leanings [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyziuRBkWdFVzGFx0OzlENsDJ-SrsfPKSogVNOfUnC8eyrzvQY2hyQfNcAHy93HsLDyjGavy3qYsvTX9Z8-RC7PCxHVGTtXy92o67R-txAUzzx1yRfY52qx22MAKDZap3_UTY=]
and refers to him as an "independent." Lowey is facing an ideologically charged 
challenge from Chris Day [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyzis7sh6X89sa84rrgamW71_tdQwdmpWRczps3hUaB9kB_ij_7GKZl3KHwgSwNf7PjJIBFrjxhzUuPa66eOZib0ckny-qM8kpxa3sAc0ooCqmImo1MYaX4zt2_jxnJRrNXgKth3Am477N5M0OpbdFDPU1tC3SqvoMYlQFmoNTF_IuRsDwfpQvOu7PX2i0jmhs-oM=],
an Army vet whose father was just elected the Rockland County Executive.  Day will
also link Lowey to the damaged-Obama brand, coupled with a harsh critique of the
 President's Israel policy that can resonate with this district's hawkishly pro-Israel
voters.  Lowey needs to gird for battle; her campaign website hasn't been updated
since August 2013 [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyzitGUj9nd5pYXEV2e-x7-RuCWI3Z9VYV1_h2Xx6UZrSBy21kiZhsj_LZqhthVHsbeYTkJ15vPY4bM9dhslHvkso2Y9S1a0eRUQovJv8tZ7zMeGE1jMSGUyEF].
4. Maybe I Inhaled too Deeply- Last week, I looked at Quinnipiac College poll that
showed NY Democrat favoring legal marijuana by a 65 to 31 [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyzivlpKH_lXgQ1z0NySB7c_AzKCy2o2BxUmzS-lRo-pG57mxcQl0GHe0EXldVrEdpbRwbY6Dx7vy4rbRFdF_Ja-GpQo_MOfU-M6gt0vfVGmoEWayz2g_yTn9hGvsWILlQh1dZJnqeySS7fr2TtHoPEznmy-9YQT6seZaJmoAHPuOzLcBSeeK6HfsqkWiO1SP9yOA3qXII3TwGlmCut7dEoyc_wje42N5Jy7LINHfEqsoQDw==]
margin and predicted legalization by 2016 [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyziu-bWAX-NPEo8NC7O1ocHczKfS15F8vxeejBoP--krxPSalObF1tABYUCvs599nuOWjCy5WDnFQEE0lX1HMk1-hsh_R2cDU-x0vlOsDhfGuL4dsAEdLzbca1xP8axvhUwInMKAmYVmdN61-x44LVIquldtofCAFF2I=].
 Today's poll shows Democrats opposed 49 to 46.  I think that is mostly because 
of the way the questions were worded; last week's poll referred to legalizing "small
amounts" of weed while today's poll put no limit on the quantity.  Today's poll 
shows independent voters favor legal weed by 10 points.  Nonetheless, the mixed 
data on the topic demonstrates why Cuomo and other state leaders are reluctant to
enter the haze [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyzitD6M22QxpvHJ2HPaMCW0pZO9OMBfprL4-o4kfjZqPHGn00KD-iPxUngM7KoaoOXx-P_japu-HZ0-OfqfRsJg8cMnTcRKSv6H08HQQ14oTV1nwbsFrd0voRXoZDUPGPvzTTG2TuQXwd1IulNLVS1wefGdLMc6z7rVxTFJvzUPD7m76Ja3zZZACfBVCnmYh_LQngp13qn3f4Zg==]
on the issue.  Maybe Hillary doesn't need to light a pipe [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyzisJbn3VrNPgstQVam8aK67QkTZOa7woTgIpqzFbOv1obMumYDVStcmFJpgAN1-jFit6Qb05O-hIn95aSvhMGZFX0698JmTbkUHqwkyndKWn6quadnuN0YtisviJwJRwa9yEuWjin7SMAN36QdHGO4ig8_fguReuRI8uL5FlCGTANA==]
after all.
5. Downballot Democratic Blues- Eric Schneiderman [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyzivazVk9m4rvwKB_e0_JZ1XPUW8mnJAVRLyI6hc38FeaajTHYAzs7NYX3ICN4Sm2YDVy4by9ZvxmNClk90UeS-PjGCkju66gVOcL5taq49Qn8w==]
has landed multiple front-pages as New York's attorney general, leading the national
conversation [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyzivuFq6XV0kj146izYN4CQGfAMSeeKErRh7Uj9-6Um8mKjjRAtAGqm852NE1HYvwc7YN6ThFjoSvfYpJCh5ulMTRimpsXT6DNNVYGLHGNQHPsIecepWTSqHIHjXCeyWDqYmKTxbQI6B199bfwsiulzWFMgFAEIcr7nyloikNUlwxRaJGBy5nShWDpuoiNvf9U8kuexL4lgy7T5mC4EWYk64aK_8kITQzFvLNfmSz4A_V9ditxsPOmFqYkcBHLMPEVqA=]
on foreclosure settlements and presided over high-profile drug busts, but he remains
a total unknown to many voters, including 63% of voters in the politically crucial
suburbs.  Both Schneiderman and Comptroller Tom Dinapoli [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyziv_Z5BbCNGnzFR4zOL4NZs9DNLjlGF5uzxtFAbbKQGtpwYEMSxrSQuQgZCoENQ5qO-Kj1Lbk1mostlQzT9aNebAtA4_xreCzGEauHLtrTzX_bpQvz6Uf54C],
the other statewide official seeking re-election this year, received favorable ratings
only in the high-20s.  The New York Times's recently profiled Schneiderman's clash
with Cuomo [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyziv0m8m20AgJmr2GhyDiO7JMrRlZJ3OM9EX6C8NPwT2qVhm4PJ1tYS5FrG1pxWmx4qin-nNHgw-HcepfkSqS4rC7OfFwm_J8jvxxgbf4YQCEKnOyi-rGoupEH-sFwFLG1cfD6_MRv3OlHu_fvXFcYDgQq9tnfXqkQBwt4j_x0BGDNenn1s8KfmOt]
and DiNapoli and the governor have tangled as well [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyziuYl5PoRS5Qly80Iah58Gy6HUiHaXaTF_PoFxswjaKtBTwZspOSC3r1GZ_XzoYf6z5CQmOHIfcXY6-MlCRClB0S7ykxkmBheLk1DK4zHKvZUkTV-GEdZ5TV4BJD9rQaS4SAl-6EUVdCg_v_S4fXjI5Tq5v-M1B3YfmtcLh70DLo5T0skMfiNnh70O8DKAT_fJ8=].
 But neither official appears able to stand on their own as a statewide candidate
in a year with ear-ringing political noise and both will swallow their pride and
 hoist hands with Cuomo to smooth their way to victory.

Read the entire article [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001pMZOuuJyziu3ShuhUzi1zn1GWU6F5Vs4r4qN3c21Py2YhlygZlbA-2Cz684ydlW0zag6I0O11drusM-yg4412F85f34E9KzLBdabQkVRjpVDemfQMFAY4vIweXW30hjZg31AiHhMetbXVPP_q1WDZCZBWiJsUIBFTdY6qa5WSWJRabq3UoNG_b3NroM1lpgf].

Ryan

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