Subject: David Hale Global Forecast: US & Europe Recover, but Asian Risks Linger
From: "David Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 11 Apr 2014 08:55:11 -0700 (PDT)

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Dear R. Hunter,

After a winter of extreme weather, the US is poised to return to 3% 
growth during the remainder of 2014. Europe continues to surprise on the 
upside, and Chinese growth should recover after a weak first quarter. 
Elsewhere in Asia, Japanese growth is set to plunge with the increase in 
the VAT rate, while many countries in the region will conduct key 
elections this year that will impact their growth outlooks for the next 
decade.  Attached you will find our latest global forecast, "US & Europe 
Recover, but Asian Risks Linger".

  Key conclusions include:

After a weak first quarter, pent-up demand, wealthier consumers, and an 
ongoing oil and gas boom should enable the US to achieve 3% growth 
during the rest of 2014

Strong employment reports ensure that the Fed's tapering process will 
end by the fourth quarter barring a major shock

European sentiment continues to improve, and both the core and the 
periphery should grow at a stronger-than-expected rate in 2014

Weakness resulting from the VAT hike and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko 
Kuroda's resolve to eradicate deflation increase the likelihood of 
further BOJ easing later this year

China's liberalization of deposit rates will help the country gradually 
transition to consumption-led growth during the remainder of this decade

  As always, we welcome any questions or comments.

With all best wishes,

David Hale 

Chairman

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

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Winnetka, Illinois 60093 USA

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