Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: POLITICO Poll finds trouble for Dems — Poll finds Shaheen leading Brown by 12 in N.H. — DSCC raises $6.3 million in April
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 19 May 2014 08:03:09 -0600

By Emily Schultheis (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] ; Twitter: @emilyrs) and Jose DelReal (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] ; Twitter: @jdelreal)

With help from Elizabeth Titus, Tarini Parti, James Hohmann, Maggie Haberman and Steven Shepard (reporting from Anaheim, Calif.)

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro&#39;s Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day&#39;s most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa999df3e7c4d2746e07956ef1ceb72152e57abe3e2b363e8a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6faf9b9f5244dea0a551f49f53ae2961bd29cfb65bee679291d )

POLITICO POLL - TROUBLE FOR DEMS IN KEY STATES/DISTRICTS: POLITICO's Alex Burns looks at the big picture from the first POLITICO poll of the 2014 cycle: "In the congressional districts and states where the 2014 elections will actually be decided, likely voters said they would prefer to vote for a Republican over a Democrat by 7 percentage points, 41 percent to 34 percent. A quarter of voters said they were unsure of their preference. Among these critical voters, Obama's job approval is a perilous 40 percent, and nearly half say they favor outright repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Sixty percent say they believe the debate over the law is not over compared with 39 percent who echo the
 president's position and say the ACA debate has effectively concluded. Both Obama's job approval and the partisan ballot matchup are markedly more negative for Democrats in this poll than other national surveys - a reflection of the political reality that the midterm campaign is being fought on turf that is more challenging for Democrats than the nation as a whole." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fac15938e9c330cc4e6c8d24e76d9446206aa4c9518d5a7c51 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fac15938e9c330cc4e6c8d24e76d9446206aa4c9518d5a7c51 

OTHER KEY TAKEAWAYS: POLITICO's Katie Glueck has more from the poll on gay marriage and marijuana (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa57652058301ba31cdf816797c3ad39158a162bb763e16d02 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa57652058301ba31cdf816797c3ad39158a162bb763e16d02 ), background checks for gun purchases (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fae6bdcc2205e460aefd277dc698f1b5e471cce13358cda55b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fae6bdcc2205e460aefd277dc698f1b5e471cce13358cda55b ), immigration reform (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fae4fe543e41e11c6cbe3765e0cee057c1ac3cd46f1154e927 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fae4fe543e41e11c6cbe3765e0cee057c1ac3cd46f1154e927 ) and political scandals (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6faa2d6a7c9f8c8290716d27873d680d3e5e38403ae90c32c3c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6faa2d6a7c9f8c8290716d27873d680d3e5e38403ae90c32c3c ).

THE POLL, conducted by SocialSphere Inc. of Cambridge, Massachusetts, surveyed 867 likely voters in the states and districts with the most competitive Senate and House races this year. More on the methodology: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa6df440ee14e9aeec72c9fce9de7b2d9619979b9f15f1f2ca 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa6df440ee14e9aeec72c9fce9de7b2d9619979b9f15f1f2ca 

SEE FULL RESULTS and toplines on our new POLITICO Poll homepage: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa984d60f1a1e95a931578e81d975b7961e996f5faefa261a5 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa984d60f1a1e95a931578e81d975b7961e996f5faefa261a5 

FIRST LOOK - VOX POPULI HAS BROWN UP 25 IN PRIMARY, DOWN 12 TO SHAHEEN: Vox Populi, the GOP polling firm that launched last month, finds former Sen. Scott Brown leading the GOP primary field September 9 in New Hampshire with 38 percent (and 28 percent undecided). Trailing behind is former Sen. Bob Smith with 13 percent, largely because of enduring name ID, former state Sen. Jim Rubens with 9 percent and activist Karen Testerman with 8 percent. In the general election, incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads Brown, 47-35. The pollster notes that Brown's deficit can partly be explained by 10.5 percent of Republicans calling themselves undecided, compared to 5 percent of Democrats. The IVR poll of
 707 active voters was conducted May 14-15, with an MOE of 3.6 percent for the general and 5.2 percent for the primaries. From the crosstabs: Republicans are way more enthusiastic. Toplines: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa4860d6b8cc2ab0f9de1b034b58bd3bd2d33f5e2c16a4f635 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa4860d6b8cc2ab0f9de1b034b58bd3bd2d33f5e2c16a4f635 

As Democratic committees bring in the cash, Mike Simpson looks poised to fight off the tea party and Ro Khanna goes on the attack, here&#39;s POLITICO&#39;s Morning Score: your daily guide to the 2014 midterms.

DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION: 169.

Good Monday morning and welcome to the abridged version of POLITICO Campaign Pro's Morning Score. As always, send your tips, thoughts, and suggestions to 
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked]  or tweet them to @emilyrs. You can also get your Campaign Pro news at @politicopro and @promorningscore.

TODAY ON CAMPAIGN PRO-

http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa25ddbf7321b3bc05746d877707e161967baeeb70f3dc4558 
How Mike Simpson took on the Club for Growth 

http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa1d074f1c8e0f7abeae6f8199eeaf7dafa83dfdab9e45f294 
Pollsters discuss 2014 elections 

http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa96fa8dc0a7d8d0b3938c753f54df89fe69f4a5313937b38f 
Georgia's GOP Senate primary: 6 things to watch in home stretch 

FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD-It's perhaps the biggest primary week we'll have in 2014: voters in Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania head to the polls tomorrow. Here are the top things Score is watching in this week's primary night returns:

1) Who makes it into the top two in Georgia's GOP Senate primary?

2) Is Tom Wolf's margin in Pennsylvania as big as recent polls have shown it to be?

3) Does Mike Simpson pull out a victory over his primary challenger in ID-02?

4) How big is Mitch McConnell's victory over primary challenger Matt Bevin?

5) Will Clinton in-law Marjorie Margolies make it to the general election?

BREAKING THIS MORNING - DSCC OUTRAISES NRSC IN APRIL: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced this morning that it raised $6.3 million in April, bringing the cycle-to-date total to $80.4 million. The committee has $25 million on hand with zero debt. Its April haul is slightly higher than the NRSC's $6.04 million; the NRSC has $21.9 million on hand and no debt.

MORE MONEY NEWS - DCCC BRINGS IN $7.1 MILLION: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had its best-ever April, raising $7.1 million and bringing the cycle total to $106.5 million. The committee has $43.5 million on hand and no debt. The NRCC has yet to release its April figures; in March, the DCCC slightly outraised the NRCC, raising $10.3 million to the NRCC's $9.9 million.

POLICE CONSIDERING 'CONSPIRACY' IN VIDEO OF COCHRAN'S WIFE: The big news out of Mississippi this weekend: A man had snuck into the nursing home where GOP Sen. Thad Cochran's wife Rose lives in order to film her - and the Jackson Clarion-Ledger reports that local police are considering a "conspiracy" angle to the case. The police department said they're hoping to talk to other individuals "who might have been part of a conspiracy" to film Cochran's wife. Clayton Kelly, the man arrested for filming her, was a self-professed supporter of Cochran's primary challenger, state Sen. Chris McDaniel, a point Cochran allies have been quick to point out; the McDaniel campaign has categorically denied
 any advance knowledge of or involvement in Kelly's actions. "This criminal act is deeply offensive and my team and I categorically reject any such appalling behavior," McDaniel said in a statement Saturday. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fabd6e81b7d8a9158f902d8eef3305a23fe90c75352a188e5b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fabd6e81b7d8a9158f902d8eef3305a23fe90c75352a188e5b 

SATURDAY FIGHT NIGHT IN GEORGIA - GOP CANDIDATES PILE ON PERDUE: The AP has the details from Saturday night's final debate in the Georgia GOP Senate race, where businessman David Perdue's frontrunner status made him the main target for attacks: "Former Dollar General CEO David Perdue says his chief rivals in the GOP race for Georgia&#39;s open Senate seat are falsely accusing him of being the worst kind of Republican - one who wants to raise taxes. 'Of all the deceitful and false accusations that have been coming my way, this is absolutely the most outrageous,' Perdue said Saturday during the final debate before Tuesday&#39;s primary. While Perdue offered a previous pledge not to increase
 taxes as evidence of his standing on the issue, Rep. Jack Kingston said it wasn&#39;t enough. Kingston and others have accused Perdue of supporting higher taxes after Perdue, who is leading in polls, said a few days ago that increasing revenue as well as cutting spending is needed to address the country&#39;s fiscal problems." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa50f259912d264a81d3ef02f002adb05fcbdcaf94a16875e1 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa50f259912d264a81d3ef02f002adb05fcbdcaf94a16875e1 

GEORGIA AD WATCH: Perdue released a TV ad portraying Kingston as a baby and hitting him on 'Washington big spending.' 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fabbbc2c70c4c9c8d99197fe47fb89624b3d91aac731a9574a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fabbbc2c70c4c9c8d99197fe47fb89624b3d91aac731a9574a 

GALLUP UNVEILS PHASE TWO OF 2012 REVIEW: Campaign Pro's Steven Shepard: "Eighteen months after the Gallup Organization incorrectly showed Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama on the eve of the 2012 presidential election, the legendary but embattled polling firm unveiled additional research aimed at fine-tuning their methodology before the 2016 campaign. ... But Gallup's research fell short of addressing these issues for some in attendance." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6faa1938d5561e658eb6d2599588f48b673425fe74a689b9d5c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6faa1938d5561e658eb6d2599588f48b673425fe74a689b9d5c 

QUICK HITS ACROSS THE MAP -

-IA-Sen: The Des Moines Register endorsed Joni Ernst in the crowded GOP field ahead of the June 3 primary. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fad197f177158cb1388f4638be5424c6b38ee20c1cff3ef34f 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fad197f177158cb1388f4638be5424c6b38ee20c1cff3ef34f 

-KY-Sen: GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell has a huge lead over primary rival Matt Bevin, 55 percent to 35 percent, according to a new SurveyUSA poll. However, he trails Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes by 1 point. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa40032ed7a3d3e2ed23552853ff9de689f3f435c8a5e31992 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa40032ed7a3d3e2ed23552853ff9de689f3f435c8a5e31992 

-WV-03 sneak peek: House Majority PAC is out with its latest spot hitting GOP candidate Evan Jenkins and tying him to the Koch brothers. The ad is backed by $90,000. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa41976f8345f26f0a4b8e93bcbea61eebb1132f17d5f9f5ef 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa41976f8345f26f0a4b8e93bcbea61eebb1132f17d5f9f5ef 

-CT-Gov: The Connecticut Republican party endorsed Tom Foley&#39;s bid for governor. Foley will face two challengers in the primary, Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton and state Sen. Minority Leader John McKinney. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa180f44aace02c4cffcd4ff640f7e0139f981dee3f186101b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa180f44aace02c4cffcd4ff640f7e0139f981dee3f186101b 

-FL-Gov: GOP Gov. Rick Scott released a TV ad featuring his grandson. The 30-second spot is backed by $1 million. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6faccebe4d189b913b967e296434cec3e9d4748d5df82c28081 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6faccebe4d189b913b967e296434cec3e9d4748d5df82c28081 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'Given the month she just had, I actually doubt very much whether she actually will run for president in 2016." -RNC Chairman Reince Priebus on Hillary Clinton's presidential hopes 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa4ef7a3e334186c32a26fd668ec1fe185545bc384b22588fc 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f00abbc1ddb9b6fa4ef7a3e334186c32a26fd668ec1fe185545bc384b22588fc 

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