Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Katz Radio Group: Cantor loses in shocking VA-07 upset - Lindsey Graham avoids a runoff in S.C.
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 11 Jun 2014 08:03:25 -0600

By Emily Schultheis (
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[email-masked] ; Twitter: @emilyrs) and Jose DelReal (
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[email-masked] ; Twitter: @jdelreal)

With help from Elizabeth Titus

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro&#39;s Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day&#39;s most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (
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TUESDAY NIGHT STUNNER - CANTOR LOSES PRIMARY: What was expected to be a fairly low-key, predictable primary night took a turn for the historic when House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his GOP primary to a little-known professor named Dave Brat. It's an unprecedented result in modern American politics - Cantor is the first House majority leader to fail to earn renomination - and will have big implications both on the rest of the primary season and on Congress as a whole.

FIVE TAKEAWAYS FROM CANTOR'S LOSS, via Campaign Pro's James Hohmann: "Immigration reform is dead: Cantor was accused by tea party challenger Brat of supporting "amnesty," though the congressman denied it. ... The tea party is alive and well: The &#39;establishment strikes back&#39; narrative that has dominated since Sen. John Cornyn crushed Steve Stockman in the Texas GOP Senate primary this March needs to be readjusted. ... Cantor was overconfident: It's not that he did nothing. ... But Cantor's team downplayed the danger and convinced themselves the race could be close but there was no way he could lose. ... It creates a power vacuum in the Virginia GOP: In one of the most important
 presidential battlegrounds, there is no longer a clear Republican leader. ... Cantor was the nominal leader of the party after Bob McDonnell's term as governor ended. ... Never trust internal polls: House races are notoriously difficult to poll, but both of these surveys [Cantor&#39;s internal poll and a Vox Populi poll] were embarrassingly wrong." 
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HOW DAVID BRAT WON: POLITICO's Jake Sherman and Alex Isenstadt report, with a Glen Allen, Virginia, dateline:"In interviews here with Brat's allies, Cantor and Brat himself, a sketch of the insurgent's winning strategy emerges - and it runs completely counter to the conventional wisdom of this election cycle. This year was branded as one where the establishment strikes back. In some places, it has - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) toppled his tea party challenger by running an aggressive campaign. But people in Cantor and Brat's camps say that the majority leader struck back too hard. Cantor's aides take pride in running a strong race against any candidate - Democrat or
 Republican. But the $2 million Cantor spent to brand Brat as a liberal professor may have had the reverse effect, people close to him and Brat say. It showed voters there was an alternative to Cantor -and that was exactly what many voters wanted. ... Brat also got a bit lucky. At the same time he was emerging, Cantor and his political team were angering conservatives by trying to tighten their grip on the Virginia Republican Party. ... That widespread discontent became evident Tuesday evening. Cantor lost six of the 10 counties in his district, including Henrico County, his longtime political base." 
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BUT WAS IT IMMIGRATION? NEW DEMOCRATIC POLL: A PPP Election-Day survey 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=234f6601472f1629c4b51460a724714ea658f04638e42bc0eca27a189113e289 
commissioned by Americans United for Change  calls into question the idea that Cantor's position on immigration reform dealt a serious blow to his reelection bid. The poll, which was conducted in Cantor's district last night, shows that 72 percent of voters in VA-07 support bipartisan immigration reform, while only 23 percent oppose it. And that includes majorities of Republicans. But the poll also shows Cantor's approval rating upside-down among Republicans: 43 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove. And if Cantor was thinking of running as a write-in, take note: His overall approval rating is even worse: 30 percent approve, and a whopping 63 percent disapprove. (The survey of 488
 registered voters in VA-07 was conducted June 10 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.) 
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HOW BIG MONEY FAILED TO RESCUE ERIC CANTOR: POLITICO'S Byron Tau and Campaign Pro's Tarini Parti report: "The darling of big Wall Street donors, the K Street business types and the Republican establishment went down in flames Tuesday, all the while crushing his no-name opponent with a 26-to-1 cash advantage in the money race. ...The Brat campaign had just two paid staffers, according to its last campaign finance report. Cantor, meanwhile, had 23 paid staff in the same time period, as well as several consulting firms. Brat spent $75,000 in April and May. Cantor spent just over $1 million. Instead, Brat's victory was driven by conservative talk radio and the grassroots opposition to
 immigration reform that was the talk of both conservative and mainstream media. ... [Cantor's] defeat is also raising concerns about potential impact on fundraising for House Republicans overall. Cantor, a prolific fundraiser, spent a considerable amount of time traveling the country to raise money on behalf of the party. But in the age of outside money, he could be even more useful after he leaves Congress. Cantor is already affiliated with the YG Network, a politically-active nonprofit that also has a super PAC arm." 
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FINAL RESULTS (100% of precincts reporting): Brat 36,110 (55.5 percent), Cantor 28,898 (44.5 percent)

WHO IS THIS GUY? POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt offers a primer: "Brat, a Michigan native, is 49 years old. He's spent the last 18 years working as an economics professor at Randolph Macon College, a school of around 1,200 students located in Ashland, Va. According to news reports, he also spent time working as an economist in the Army and at the accounting firm Arthur Andersen. He earned his bachelors degree from Hope College, a small liberal arts college in Holland, Mich. He would go on to get a doctorate in economics from American University. Brat, who is Catholic, got his masters from Princeton Theological Seminary." 
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FOR JEWISH REPUBLICANS: OY VEH: POLITICO's Alexander Burns reports: "The dream of a Jewish Republican speaker of the House is no more. With House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's startling ouster in a primary election this week, the man who was on a track to be the highest-ranking Jewish official in American history now appears consigned to the status of a 'Jeopardy' answer. His defeat has left Jewish organizations in both parties reeling, especially the GOP's long-suffering Jewish coalition groups. Cantor was - and for now, remains - the No. 2 Republican in a conference of 233 lawmakers. But for Jewish Republicans, Cantor is a singular figure, the only Jewish member of the House majority and
 the lone Jewish leader in a party that has strenuously courted the community in recent presidential elections, to little avail.' 
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As Cantor's stunning loss reverberates throughout Washington, the DGA goes back on air in Michigan, and the ad war in Mississippi picks up again, here&#39;s POLITICO&#39;s Morning Score: your daily guide to the 2014 midterms.

DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION: 146.

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to the abridged version of POLITICO Campaign Pro's Morning Score. As always, send your tips, thoughts, and suggestions to 
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MORE RESULTS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT'S PRIMARIES:

-South Carolina Senate (99% reporting): GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham fought off his primary challengers and easily cleared the 50-percent mark, avoiding a June 24 runoff. He took 56 percent; his closest challenger was state Sen. Lee Bright with 15 percent.

-Maine's 2nd District (79% reporting): Democratic state Sen. Emily Cain and Republican former state treasurer Bruce Poliquin won their respective primaries. Cain defeated state Sen. Troy Jackson 72 percent to 28 percent, while Poliquin bested former state Senate President Kevin Raye 56 percent to 44 percent.

-Virginia's 8th District (100% reporting): Former Lt. Gov. Don Beyer won an easy victory over the crowded Democratic field in the race to replace retiring Rep. Jim Moran. Beyer took 46 percent of the vote, followed by state Del. Patrick Hope at 18 percent, state Sen. Adam Ebbin at 14 percent, Alexandria Mayor Bill Euille at 8 percent, radio host Mark Levine at 7 percent, former nonprofit CEO Lavern Chatman at 5 percent and professor Derek Hyra at 1 percent.

-Nevada LG (100% reporting): Sandoval-backed Mark Hutchison won the GOP primary with 54 percent to Sue Lowden&#39;s 36 percent. On the Democratic side, Reid-supported Lucy Flores took 72 percent versus Harley Kulkin&#39;s 13 percent.

-Nevada's 3rd District (99% reporting): Erin Bilbray easily won the Democratic primary, defeating the lesser-known Zachary Campbell 86 percent to 14 percent.

** Katz Radio Group is your one-stop media partner. No other company can match the massive reach, local targeting abilities and effectiveness of Katz Radio Group. Timing is everything in an election. Let Katz Radio Group give you the reach and speed you need to effectively deliver your message. Contact: 
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FIRST IN SCORE - DGA LAUNCHES NEW AD BUY IN MICHIGAN: The Democratic Governors Association is going back on the air in Michigan with a new ad featuring Democratic candidate Mark Schauer speaking direct-to-camera. "I'm Mark Schauer, and there's a lot we can do to make Michigan's economy better," he says, as the camera zooms out and he's shown speaking on the computer screens of children in a classroom and in a warehouse. Schauer calls for the reversal of Snyder's "billion dollars in education cuts," says the state should stop "rewarding" companies that outsource jobs, and invest in "high-tech research" to bring new jobs to the state. "Tell Governor Snyder ... his economic policies work for
 the wealthy, but not the rest of Michigan," Schauer concludes. The buy is for seven figures, and this is the fourth ad the DGA has run in MIchigan so far this cycle. This ad is on top of the $6 million the committee has already reserved for the state in the fall, underscoring how confident the DGA is that Michigan can and will be competitive. Watch: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=234f6601472f1629876732cdb42fbe8052e1da5c5aeac661b05dc63684db22cf 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=234f6601472f1629876732cdb42fbe8052e1da5c5aeac661b05dc63684db22cf 

MORE ON THE GOVERNORS FRONT-The Republican Governors Association, which launched its first ad hitting Iowa Democrat Jack Hatch last week, is out with a new ad calling on Hatch to release his tax returns and suggesting he's "hiding" things from voters. Watch: 
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FIRST IN SCORE - COTTON AD TIES PRYOR TO OBAMA: In a departure from his other recent ads, all of which have been biographical spots, Arkansas GOP Rep. Tom Cotton uses a new ad to go after Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor for voting in lockstep with President Obama. "They call it &#39;toeing the line.&#39; In Washington, that&#39;s how they do business. Senators are expected to do exactly what their political party wants, even when it&#39;s wrong," Cotton says direct-to-camera in the ad. "That&#39;s what Senator Pryor did on Obamacare. And it passed by just one vote - his vote. Senator Pryor votes with his party and Obama 90% of the time.' Cotton also says he'll stand up to his own party when he
 has to- "That's the only way to make things right," he concludes. This ad, like Cotton's others, was produced by OnMessage Inc. Watch the ad, which is running statewide with a six-figure buy: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=234f6601472f1629cbd1fc35dc6ab2955e9c3ce6541fe47a615547f84df3df09 
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GOP POLL SHOWS COTTON LEADING PRYOR, via Campaign Pro's James Hohmann: "An internal poll conducted for a conservative super PAC that has spent more than $1 million helping ... Cotton found that he leads Sen. Mark Pryor by 9 percentage points. The survey of 600 likely voters conducted June 3-5 by Fabrizio, Lee and Associates has Cotton leading 51 percent to 43 percent, with 5 percent undecided. In a memo to The Government Integrity Fund, which has been running pro-Cotton ads, pollsters Tony Fabrizio and David Lee note that the Republican does best among those who say they are likeliest to vote and leads by 29 percent, 60-31, among independents." 
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PREVIEW - GENERATION OPPORTUNITY GOES UP IN NC-SEN: Generation Opportunity, a conservative-leaning youth organization with ties to the billionaire Koch brothers, is going up with its first-ever TV ad in North Carolina, hitting Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan for 'spending our generation&#39;s future.' The 30-second TV spot is backed by a six-figure buy of about $700,000 and will run on major broadcast stations and cable networks. 'Senator Hagan once enjoyed the overwhelming support of young people, and she&#39;s repaid that faith by votingagainst our economic interests at every turn," said Generation Opportunity President Evan Feinberg in a written statement. "GenOpp is excited to educate young
 North Carolinians on how Senator Hagan&#39;s voting record has been harmful to their futures." 
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QUICK HITS ACROSS THE MAP - 

-IA-Sen, NH-Sen new this morning: Americans for Prosperity released new ads hitting Iowa Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley for his "farmer" comments (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=234f6601472f16297931e8eeef1ceaba5ac1235af8ee58846f79d771018e045e 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=234f6601472f16297931e8eeef1ceaba5ac1235af8ee58846f79d771018e045e ) and New Hampshire Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen over health care (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=234f6601472f16295468eddc03973c695b817bd45bf33014884a3530d5cdbbba 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=234f6601472f16295468eddc03973c695b817bd45bf33014884a3530d5cdbbba ). The New Hampshire ad is a $730,000 buy, and the Iowa one is for about $350,000.

-VA-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Warner released a positive 30-second TV ad touting his work on 'insourcing' jobs to the state. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=234f6601472f16292a0fe49489d175041ec8942e367579892ca9f4df48e7983f 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=234f6601472f16292a0fe49489d175041ec8942e367579892ca9f4df48e7983f 

-DCCC: President Obama will attend a Silicon Valley fundraiser for the DCCC on July 23, according to the AP. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=234f6601472f1629bb0ff2c5bd8756d2a7c30924fe39bbdf726ffd217aea6860 
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-MD-Gov: Democrat Anthony Brown has a huge lead over his primary rivals, according to a Washington Post poll. He carries 46 percent support versus Doug Gansler&#39;s 23 percent and Heather Mizeur&#39;s 16 percent. On the GOP side, Larry Hogan takes 35 percent to second-place candidate David Craig&#39;s 19 percent. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=234f6601472f1629ff7003daebe969bd98b4f39dd204a3e055e67a5323345341 
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-RI-Gov: GOP gubernatorial candidate Ken Block released an ad hitting primary rival Allan Fung on an attack ad released by his campaign that Politifact rated "Pants on Fire."

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I need a drink ..." -GOP strategist Chris LaCivita, who worked for Virginia gubernatorial nominee Ken Cuccinelli last year, on Twitter just as the Cantor-Brat race was called Tuesday night 
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