Subject: David Hale: Second Half Predictions and Second Quarter Review
From: "David Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 27 Jun 2014 14:40:42 -0700 (PDT)

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To download [Predictions for the Second Half of 2014.pdf], click on the following link:
http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-00f1-1406/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000WTlZIAW-3a66/l-sf-cl-701C0000000WTlZIAW-3a66:1/ct8_2/1

Dear R. Hunter,

With the second half of the year rapidly approaching, we wanted to 
provide you with a bulletin detailing our major predictions concerning 
the global economy for the next six months, which is attached above, a 
review of our most important non-consensus calls made during the second 
quarter, and our second quarter reports in one location. Key predictions 
we are making for the remainder of the year include:

The US economy will grow by 3%+, and declining unemployment and rising 
inflation will raise the specter of interest rate hikes occurring 
earlier than is currently anticipated

Among G-7 central banks, the Bank of England will be the first to hike 
interest rates

A disappointing, but positive, growth outlook will force the ECB to 
engage in quantitative easing

A subdued recovery in Japan will result in the BOJ easing monetary 
policy further this fall

Strong export gains and a mini-stimulus program will sustain Chinese 
growth at around 7.5% during the next two quarters

The crises in Iraq and Syria will remain unresolved through year end

Additionally, in case you missed any of our reports this quarter, you 
will find them attached below. The non-consensus predictions we made 
during this quarter in our reports are as follows:

The US expansion this cycle will last for a much longer period of time 
than the five-year average seen since World War II

The housing sector rebound in the US will be stronger than expected

The Fed could be much more decisive in raising rates than people 
anticipate as a result of Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer's presence if 
wage inflation starts accelerating;  we will be closely watching fuel 
and food prices

Trends in the US labor force and household wealth have resulted in an 
under-45 population whose future consumption will be constrained in ways 
previous generations were not

Whether the BOJ eases monetary policy further depends on the true size 
of Japan's output gap and if weakness resulting from the first VAT hike 
puts at risk the implementation of the planned 2%-point VAT increase 
next year

African growth is being powered by increased commodity output, improved 
political governance, and a rising middle class

Jacob Zuma could be forced out of leadership in the next two years if 
support for the ANC continues to decline

Dilma Rousseff could lose the Brazilian election as a result of power 
shortages, the weak economy, and a poor showing as World Cup host

We look forward to working with you this upcoming quarter. As always, we 
welcome any questions or comments.

To download [Global Forecast-June-The US Will Have a V-Shaped Recovery during the Second Quarter.pdf], click on the following link:
http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-00f1-1406/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000WTlZIAW-3a66/l-sf-cl-701C0000000WTlZIAW-3a66:1/ct1_2/1

To download [Special Report-The Transformation of the US Labor Force and Its Implications for Consumption.pdf], click on the following link:
http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-00f1-1406/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000WTlZIAW-3a66/l-sf-cl-701C0000000WTlZIAW-3a66:1/ct2_2/1

To download [Can Africa's Economic Takeoff Be Sustained.pdf], click on the following link:
http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-00f1-1406/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000WTlZIAW-3a66/l-sf-cl-701C0000000WTlZIAW-3a66:1/ct3_2/1

To download [Global Forecast-April-US & Europe Recover, but Asian Risks Linger.pdf], click on the following link:
http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-00f1-1406/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000WTlZIAW-3a66/l-sf-cl-701C0000000WTlZIAW-3a66:1/ct4_2/1

With all best wishes,

David Hale 

Chairman

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

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Winnetka, Illinois 60093 USA

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