Subject: David Hale: The Outlook for the Canadian Economy
From: "David Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 16:00:14 -0700 (PDT)

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Dear R. Hunter,

Attached you will find our latest report on the outlook for the Canadian 
economy during the year ahead. Key conclusions to the report include:

Canadian growth should rebound during the rest of the year following a 
weather-induced downturn during the first quarter

Despite weak growth in full-time employment during the past year, 
Canadian household balance sheets are healthier than they have been in 
years

The Canadian housing market is set to experience a soft landing instead 
of a hard crash based on recent data

The appreciation of the Canadian dollar in recent years has contributed 
to the weakness of manufacturing production and exports, especially in 
autos

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is unlikely to raise interest 
rates in the near future because of the subdued growth and moderate 
inflation outlooks

Additionally, we will be releasing a new report tomorrow that examines 
how the poor quality of job creation during this recovery has negatively 
affected wage and output growth this cycle, and what this could mean for 
the outlooks for GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates going forward 
if these trends are not reversed. Our next global forecast will be 
released next week.

As always, we welcome any questions or comments.

With all best wishes,

David Hale 

Chairman

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

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Winnetka, Illinois 60093 USA

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