Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by CIT: Radio a hit among swing voters — Pro-choice advocates going after GOP governors — Tisei internal shows tight race
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 29 Sep 2014 08:06:01 -0600

By Kyle Cheney

With Tarini Parti and James Hohmann

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro&#39;s Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day&#39;s most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62269ec3bd02ab9864c26376dab679663119ea737437a618a75a0b7e47b827d1 
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FIRST IN SCORE - Maine Forward, the DGA-backed coalition of interests backing Democrat Michael Michaud for governor, is up with a new spot targeting GOP Gov. Paul LePage as "embarrassing" and "divisive," highlighting the state's unemployment stats and seeking to weaken his standing among seniors. The ad is airing statewide and is supported by a six-figure buy. It comes as a new polling memo released by Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner showed Michaud up 44 percent to 38 percent, just within the survey's margin of error. Independent Eliot Cutler comes at 15 percent. The survey of 605 likely voters, taken from Sept. 21 to Sept. 23, carries a 4 percentage point margin of error. A
 separate poll for the Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday telegram poll found Michaud and LePage locked in a virtual tie. The ad: 
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 - Duke Aiona, the Republican nominee for governor in Hawaii, is going up with his first ad of the general election today - a warm, positive spot with straight-to-the-camera promises for affordable housing and a better quality of life for residents of the islands. "Staying on the path we're on now, that's just not an option," Aiona says. The ad is supported by a six-figure buy and will air on radio and TV networks across Hawaii. 
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POLITICO EXCLUSIVE - "Tillis ad slams Hagan on ISIL," by Campaign Pro's James Hohmann: "North Carolina Republican Senate candidate Thom Tillis will go on the air Monday with the hardest-hitting television ad yet about the crisis in the Middle East. The 30-second ad, 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62269ec3bd02ab989379e8d01415ad3fb86028d58aa520c1c6b6f3a55273c49d 
shared first with POLITICO , links Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan's absence from Armed Service Committee hearings with America's failure to more aggressively tackle the Islamic State. 'While ISIS grew, Obama kept waiting, and Kay Hagan kept quiet,' a male narrator says ominously. 'The price for their failure is danger. To change direction, we have to change our senator.'" 
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 - Peters will hit Land on auto rescue all week: Democratic Senate candidate Gary Peters will accuse his Republican opponent Terri Lynn Land of flip-flopping on the auto rescue ahead of Mitt Romney's trip to Michigan to campaign with her this week. Land defended Romney's position on the auto bailout as a surrogate for his 2012 campaign. Previously Land's campaign has said "she thought that there were other solutions that could have also been explored...but at the time was not convinced on the specific plan that was proposed." Then late last week, a Land spokeswoman told local press that "Terri would have supported the auto rescue." Peters, a congressman in an area dependent on the auto
 makers, was a vocal supporter going back. Romney is coming to Livonia Thursday morning at 11:30 a.m.

MAIL WARS - NARAL Pro-Choice America will be stuffing mailboxes in Wisconsin, Florida and Kansas, where the group hopes to further weaken endangered Republican governors. The group is launching a six-figure campaign of direct mail, digital advertising and robocalls to argue that Govs. Scott Walker, Rick Scott and Sam Brownback chose to restrict women's health options at the expense of their states' overall economy. The mail pieces feature close-up side profiles of the governors with a cartoon drawing of a brain indicating that each seems to be thinking about abortion much more than other serious issues. NARAL says teh campaign is similar to an effort launched in 2013 against Virginia
 Republican Ken Cuccinelli. Kansas: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62269ec3bd02ab9872bd0fc82dfe58d3ab5479fee3359a74cc376e593948ea56 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62269ec3bd02ab98a3af022479f3d74dfe0ec565744a28dd2e679621a7bba9c2 ; Wisconsin: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62269ec3bd02ab98e53db5159fd3b0d67345121cddee33851e6635f95551704c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62269ec3bd02ab98e53db5159fd3b0d67345121cddee33851e6635f95551704c ; Florida: 
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Exclusive: Who said radio was dead? A new Katz Media/Vox Populi national survey suggests swing voters are listeners, and they're more apt to heed a political pitch on the AM/FM airwaves than they are online. A survey memo, shared with Score, suggests 81 percent of swing voters listen to AM/FM stations "on a regular basis," and three in five think it's a good way for candidates to communicate. Registered voters said radio ads were more believable than digital ads by a 56-35 margin. The poll of 1,059 "active voters" was taken from Sept. 8-9 and carries a three percentage point margin of error. The survey included responses taken from automated phone interviews and digital surveys. The poll
 also found that swing voters and low-turnout voters are regular listeners of music stations, suggesting they might make good ad targets on FM stations.

IT'S A DATE: Wednesday is Oct. 1: the start of the fourth quarter. Filings covering third-quarter fundraising and expenditures are due mid-month.

As both parties battle for a technological edge and operatives rethink their ad buys, here&#39;s POLITICO&#39;s Morning Score: your daily guide to the 2014 midterms.

Days until the election: 36

Thanks for joining us. We're eager for your news and feedback. Email us at 
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kyledcheney .

TOUCHING BASE - Roberts continues to shore up right flank: Sen. Pat Roberts touted the endorsement of right-wing radio host Laura Ingraham over the weekend, days after hosting Sarah Palin to inject conservative momentum into his reelection bid. It's a sign of how damaged Roberts is among his party's base: he's still working to unite conservatives who sought to unseat him in an August primary, even as his independent challenger, Greg Orman, plays to the middle. To be sure, Roberts is also trumpeting the endorsement of moderate GOPers, like Sen. John McCain and Jeb Bush, who's hosting a fundraiser for Roberts today in Wichita. But his emphasis on conservative endorsements comes as his old
 primary nemesis, Milton Wolf, flirted with endorsing Orman. A meeting between Orman and Wolf was called off, however, after POLITICO reported that it was about to happen. ICYMI, 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62269ec3bd02ab98b5e5d91c739a36c96ff19e36854a1747bb7ef37ec92bdb9c 
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...While Moulton tames the left: Seth Moulton, who's hoping to keep Massachusetts's Sixth Congressional District in the Democratic column, basked in a weekend endorsement from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who initially supported Moulton's primary rival John Tierney, the district's nine-term congressman. Since Moulton ousted Tierney earlier this month, he's continued to work to prove to his own party that he's a true-blue Democrat - perhaps a nod to Tierney's late-campaign ads that sought to paint Moulton as a closet Republican. Moulton's critics point out that he takes pains to highlight his Democratic ties and allegiance, even at a point in the race when it might make more sense to move to the
 middle against moderate Republican Richard Tisei.

POLL POSITION - Score exclusive: Tisei internal shows a dead heat - A poll by the Tarrance Group for the Tisei camp and the NRCC puts Tisei and Moulton in a statistical tie barely five weeks from Election Day. The telephone survey of 400 likely voters comes with a 4.9 percentage point margin of error and was conducted from Sept. 23-25. The poll shows 9 percent of voters would choose an independent candidate and another 10 percent are undecided. Both candidates have positive image ratings, and the district is heavily supportive of Republican Charlie Baker, the GOP nominee for governor, who also ran in 2010 with Tisei on the ticket.

 - Republican Lee Zeldin has crept into a tie with Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) in the battle for an eastern Long Island House seat, according to a Harper Polling survey of the race shared with POLITICO over the weekend. The poll of 568 likely voters, conducted from Sept. 21-22, found the candidates locked in a 44-44 tie and voters feeling slightly more inclined to support Republicans than Democrats this year. Both candidates score high favorability ratings, but Bishop enjoys much higher name-ID. The poll carries a 4.1 percentage point margin of error and was conducted with a mix of live and automated interviews.

 - "Senate polls good news for GOP hopes," By POLITICO's James Hohmann: "New public polls this weekend show Republicans well positioned in three of the key states that could decide control of the Senate. CNN/ORC polls released Sunday have the GOP candidate narrowly ahead in a Louisiana runoff and within the margin of error in North Carolina...

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NOW ON POLITICO: "The battle for digital supremacy," By Darren Samuelsohn: "Control of the Senate isn't the only big prize for the November midterms. Bragging rights are also up for grabs in the deeply partisan arms race over who has the edge with political technologies."

"[B]oth parties are blasting out carefully-crafted emails to potential donors. Both maintain they're running pitch-perfect online ads that targets the undecideds not watching live TV. And both say they will be monitoring and responding to real-time data on early voting totals in the most critical battleground states ... Asked if the Democrats' historic technology edge could give him a one to two-point bump in his voter turnout - figures which the GOP say they are factoring into election models - Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor replied, 'I think it definitely could be. There's no doubt about that.'" 
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CASH RACE - "Democratic House Candidates Are Walloping Republicans in the Small-Money Game," by National Journal's Shane Goldmacher: An analysis by NJ shows that Democrats are, on average, bringing in $100,000 more from small contributors than their Republican rivals. " In those, the average Democrat has collected $179,300 in donations under $200; the average Republican has brought in only $78,535." 
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http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62269ec3bd02ab9824ce93b1b98a80ab26b03e5c7cb8d0c3b492b6629b5ca641 

YOUNG CANCELS MORE TV TIME: Iowa Republican David Young has canceled his $107,000 ad buy in the Omaha market through Election Day, according to a source tracking the IA-03 ad buys. Young has also been off the air in the Des Moines market. The National Republican Congressional Committee started airing ads on his behalf earlier this month. Young is facing Democrat Staci Appel for retiring GOP Rep. Tom Latham&#39;s seat.

 - The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is scrapping $230,000 worth of cable airtime and redirecting its resources toward a broadcast buy in Arizona&#39;s 9th District, where Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is looking fairly safe. Sinema has cut a moderate profile in the House, and the GOP nominee, retired Air Force pilot Wendy Rogers, has struggled to raise funds. Democrats are still on defense in two other Arizona districts: Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick&#39;s 1st District and Rep. Ron Barber&#39;s 2nd District.

Gardner still fighting 'personhood' claims: American Bridge 21st Century is out with the latest in its series of online ads targeting GOP Senate candidates, the newest animated installment slamming Rep. Cory Gardner for his views on women's health and the minimum wage. The ad features an appearance from cartoon versions of the Koch brothers as well. The spot: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62269ec3bd02ab983d7b906798f88666629aadc6ca860e5c5f810460dc50d797 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62269ec3bd02ab983d7b906798f88666629aadc6ca860e5c5f810460dc50d797 

 - Gardner also sat down with KDVR, a local Fox affiliate, and insisted repeatedly that there's no federal bill supporting personhood, despite Democratic claims he's supporting one and the existence of the "Life Begins at Conception Act" described by supporters as a personhood measure: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62269ec3bd02ab98f8129ebf8de4099f48304486a579530df3c5019e41c1cf8a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62269ec3bd02ab98f8129ebf8de4099f48304486a579530df3c5019e41c1cf8a 

DAYBOOK: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will be in Wisconsin today to support Republican Gov. Scott Walker's reelection bid. The two will meet at Empire Bucket this morning, followed by a visit to the Hudson, Wisc., GOP field office.

THE UNDERCARD - Battle for Ariz. secretary of state becoming front in gay rights fight: Democrat Terry Goddard is going up with an ad today intended to reignite a fierce battle - one that subsumed all of the state's leadership last year - over a bill that critics said would permit Arizona business owners to deny services to gay people. Although Gov. Jan Brewer ultimately vetoed and killed the bill, the fight left raw divisions. The ad, supported by a $100,000 to $200,000 buy and produced by Goddard's campaign team, features a lesbian couple speaking to the camera alongside their two children. The pair - Melanie Puskar-Blakely and Tonya Blakely - rip Republican secretary of state nominee
 Michele Reagan, for supporting the measure as a state senator and say it should disqualify her for higher office. Goddard campaign aides say they hope the ad revives the issue for voters heading into the final weeks of campaign season. The ad is running statewide on cable and broadcast. 
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POLITICO LAUNCHES 'LESSONS FROM LEADERS' SERIES - New series convenes leaders from public and private sectors to examine the challenges of successful leadership, featuring live events, video interviews and feature-length stories: 
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CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "[I would not use them] to clean out my birdcage" - Ohio Democratic chair on the firm that vetted the party's gubernatorial nominee Ed Fitzgerald. The comment came in an interview with The New York Times: 
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