Subject: Re: FAO response to NY Times
From: "Rick Leach" <[email-masked]>
To: "Randy Russell" <[email-masked]>, "Dan Glickman" <[email-masked]>, "Samuel \"Sandy\" Berger" <[email-masked]>, "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Cc: "Allan Jury" <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 2 Oct 2014 21:58:02 +0000

Randy - following is our resident expert, Allan Jury, comments/response:

*       FAO's response to the New York Times did not provide the details, but the actual 2012 FAO State of Food Insecurity (SOFI) report did in a technical annex explain in great detail the changes in methodology that led to the significant changes in hunger baseline numbers criticized in the original New York times op-ed.   FAO is constantly improving its counting methods each year based on the best available evidence and statistical methods, including input from WFP technical experts.   The dilemma FAO faces is that, if they apply the new best evidence to the current year's numbers, they must also apply it retroactively to baseline numbers or you end up comparing "apples to oranges."  The result can be the changes in numbers that produce the kind of criticism you get from the NYT op-ed.

*        Conclusion - There is no perfect method for counting the hungry and the FAO method has its limitations. The quality of national survey data varies greatly country by country, which affects the reliability of statistics at the country level.  The FAO  methodology is, however, clearly explained in their annual technical annexes and its limitations are thus transparently open to legitimate statistical debate.   This weakens the argument that the data is being secretly manipulated for political purposes.

Regards, Allan

From: Randy Russell [mailto:[email-masked]]
Sent: Thursday, October 02, 2014 3:49 PM
To: Rick Leach; Glickman, Dan ([email-masked]<mailto:[email-masked]>); Hunter Biden; Samuel "Sandy" Berger
Subject: RE: FAO response to NY Times

With all due respect to the FAO-this is a very weak response. If the strength of your argument is relying on individual country data-there truly is a problem. There is no explanation for the changing methodology. Overall, reading this, I am unconvinced. Randy

From: Rick Leach [mailto:[email-masked]]
Sent: Thursday, October 02, 2014 3:38 PM
To: Glickman, Dan ([email-masked]<mailto:[email-masked]>); Randy Russell; Hunter Biden; Samuel "Sandy" Berger
Subject: FAO response to NY Times

FYI, the response from FAO to the piece in Sunday's NY Times on the global hunger numbers:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/02/opinion/world-hunger-numbers-and-solutions.html?_r=1

Richard Leach
President & CEO

World Food Program USA
1725 Eye Street NW, Suite 510
Washington, DC 20006
T 202.627.3737
F 202.530.1698
[email-masked]<mailto:[email-masked]>