Subject: Re: Hello -- Ukraine Parliamentiary Elections
From: "Rob Walker" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Cc: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>, "Katie Dodge" <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 3 Oct 2014 07:29:49 -0400

Thanks, Frank.  Let's look to get together in the coming weeks.  Next week
is bad though. Rob
On Oct 3, 2014 6:56 AM, <[email-masked]> wrote:

>
>  Hello Hunter and Rob
>
> Again, good to meet you both earlier in the week.  Thought you might find
> the below of interest particularly as the various coalitions are attempting
> to shape up (or not, in many cases) and the morphing of the former Regions
> Party.
>
> Rob, would enjoy a follow-up meeting along the lines of what I mentioned
> in my email.  Let me know if a time week after next might work.
>
> All the best,
>
> Frank
>
>
>
> My latest....
>
>
> http://www.brianmefford.net/ukraine-update-october-1-2014-parliamentary-races-watch/
>
> Brian Mefford
>
>   Ukraine Update, October 1, 2014: Polls, Politics & Parliamentary Races
> to Watch
> October 1, 2014 By Brian Mefford
> <http://www.brianmefford.net/author/meffkiev/> Leave a Comment
> <http://www.brianmefford.net/ukraine-update-october-1-2014-parliamentary-races-watch/#respond>
>  • *Poll of Polls:* Despite six polls published over the last 30 days,
> the race appears to be largely unchanged since last week’s update on
> September 22
> <http://www.brianmefford.net/ukraine-update-september-22-2014-polls-parliamentary-composition/>.
> The only major difference is that Strong Ukraine slipped below the 5%
> barrier to 4.9%. This is due to the IFES poll which put them at a mere 1.8%
> nationwide. If that poll is excluded though, then Strong Ukraine’s average
> rating is 5.5%. That 0.5% is the difference between zero and up to 20 seats
> in parliament.
> <http://www.brianmefford.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/polls-october-1.png>
>  Poroshenko’s bloc inches higher to an average of 39.8 up 2.3% from last
> week. This is due to the increasing public awareness of the joint bloc with
> UDAR and familiarity with the party list. The Radical Party levels off a
> point to 13.1% as a possible leading indicator of the public’s decline in
> infatuation its’ with Lyashko. Byut also lost 1.3% down to 7.9% as the
> voters realize that Yatsenyuk, Turchynov, Avakov et al, have left for the
> People’s Front. On the lower end of the polling spectrum, the Opposition
> Bloc doubled to 1.6% and Right Sector jumped 2.6%. We will track whether or
> not these moves are sustainable or statistical aberrations. In all
> likelihood though, the Opposition Bloc increase is legitimate as they begin
> unleashing tens of millions of dollars over the next month to achieve 5%.
>  *• Maneuverings of the Party of Regions & Opposition Bloc:* The decision
> of the Party of Regions to boycott this election is both practical and
> strategic. Practically, the brand name is in need of a major overhaul due
> to Yanukovych and the actions of other party members when in office. The
> party’s presidential candidate in May (Dobkin) received a mere 3% of the
> nationwide vote. For a party that held the presidency and 207 of 450 seats
> in parliament just four months prior, that was a catastrophic disaster and
> a sign that a serious renovation was required. In addition, with the
> Russian annexation of Crimea, and the war in the Donbass disabling voting
> in more than half of the parliamentary districts in the region, the
> traditional base of the Party of Regions is unavailable to vote. Also, with
> chief party financier, Rinat Akhmetov, preoccupied with defending his
> business empire against fellow oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi, an economic
> recession and infrastructure damage to his industries due to the war, his
> excess cash flow is limited. Thus, rather than struggle to pass the 5%
> barrier with “damaged goods”, the Opposition Bloc (led by the rebranded
> version of the Party of Regions: i.e. the Party of Development) was
> created. Akhmetov loyalists like his aunt Tetyana Bakhteyeva and personal
> lawyer Yuri Voropayev received prominent positions on the party list (9 &
> 13 respectively). Other Party of Regions members were left to scramble for
> positions elsewhere and many decided to sit out this election. In Donetsk
> and Luhansk, 21 of 33 current MP’s (almost all of which belonged to the
> Party of Regions factions a year ago) opted not to run for re-election this
> time. In addition almost all current/former Regions MP’s that are
> participating in the election are now running as independents – such as
> Serhiy Klyuyev (whose bank accounts in Switzerland were recently frozen due
> to a corruption investigation) in Donetsk district 46. The strategic factor
> in the Party of Regions decision not to participate in this election is the
> belief that the newly elected parliament will not serve its full five year
> term and that new elections will be necessary within 1-2 years. Because of
> military pressure from Putin, the effects of the economic recession, and
> overall instability in the country, some believe that a new election in a
> year or two will be the compromise solution to keep the country together.
> And of course, if new elections are forced early, then they will be
> conducted in a much less hostile (and possibly even favorable) political
> environment towards the Party of Regions (and pro-Russian politicians) than
> now. In the meantime, Serhiy Tyhypko’s Strong Ukraine Party is the likely
> beneficiary of the Regions party boycott in the near term as they will be
> positioned to pick up eastern and southern voters that previously voted for
> the Party of Regions.
>  *• Svoboda & Poroshenko Deal?* Analysis of candidate registrations in
> districts throughout the country shows that in 11 districts where there are
> incumbent Svoboda MP’s, the Poroshenko bloc does not have a candidate. With
> the exception of Kyiv city district 223, there are no Svoboda candidates in
> single mandate districts this election, although some are running
> independently. In Kyiv district 223, Yuri Levchenko won the 2012 race but
> the courts later invalidated the results. He is running for office again
> and likely to win this time since incumbent Viktor Pilipyshyn is not
> running for re-election. Lviv district 118 has been vacated by MP
> Mykhalchshyn which paves the way for his challenger last time, Bohdan
> Dubnevych to win this time. Dubnevych ran as an independent last time but
> lost 57-28% to Mykhalchshyn. This time he is running as the candidate from
> the Poroshenko bloc. In Ivano Frankivsk district 83 (Deputy Premier Sich’s
> old seat), Oleksandr Shevchenko won the seat in the May 25 special election
> with Svoboda. Now however he is running as the candidate from the
> Poroshenko bloc. All of these instances strongly suggest that Poroshenko
> and Tyahnybok have reached an electoral agreement “non-aggression” pact.
> Since Poroshenko is being “out-hawked” rhetorically by Yatsenyuk and
> Tymoshenko, Tyahnybok’s support in the west can help shore up undecided
> voters in favor of Poroshenko’s candidates. Conversely, Tyahnybok’s future
> hopes lie in Svoboda getting five percent nationwide (currently they are
> averaging 4.6%). A hostile presidential administration could make that more
> difficult. Thus, while the full details are not known, it is safe to say
> that there is a good degree of coordination between Poroshenko and Svoboda
> at this time. Of course, the Machiavellian interpretation of the deal would
> be that Poroshenko persuaded Svoboda not to expand their numbers in the
> districts while knowing that they won’t cross the five percent barrier. In
> other words, he contained them to less than a dozen districts. Time will
> tell which version is true.
>  *• Gas Talks –* surprisingly the tripartite meeting among Ukraine,
> Russia and the EU in Berlin last week produced the first steps towards an
> agreement since the June supply cutoff by the Russians. The though emphasis
> is on “steps” and not “agreement”, it marks a turning point in the
> negotiations. Ukraine’s conservation efforts combined with gas reversal
> from Slovakia have allowed the country to negotiate standing up rather than
> on its knees (as gas talks in previous years often were conducted). Ukraine
> estimates it will need between 5-12 billion cubic meters of gas to get
> through the winter –depending on the severity of the cold. Given that
> Ukraine typical imported 25 billion cubic meters annually, this is a marked
> improvement. The talks in Berlin yielded the verbal agreement from both
> sides that Ukraine would pay $2 billion to Gazprom by the end of October
> and another $1.1 billion by the end of the year. The $2 billion initial
> payment would resume gas supplies to Ukraine. Given that the IMF gave
> Ukraine $1.4 billion in September and will give another $2.2 billion in
> December, this is a financial workable solution (albeit still costly). The
> key element of the Berlin talks though was the verbal agreement that the
> International Court in Stockholm would decide the fair price of Ukraine’s
> gas imports from Russia. If the Stockholm court finds that Ukraine is
> correct and the fair market price of Russian gas is $285/cubic meter then
> Ukraine owes nothing else. If the court rules in Russia’s favor though,
> then Ukraine owes $2 billion more. The temporary solution will give Ukraine
> time to get through the winter without freezing and keep Europe heated as
> well. Now that there is a road map, we will see how many weeks before it is
> finally agreed and implemented. Odds are that the actual agreement will be
> signed after the October 26 election so Russia can avoid giving Ukraine’s
> government anything to brag about beforehand.
>  *• Races to Watch –* With around 200 districts there are far too many to
> provide commentary on in this blog. However, starting this week through the
> election, we will provide highlights on interesting races to watch.
> *Vinnitsya 12 (city), 16 (Yamil) & 18 (Illintsi): *Presidential son
> Oleksiy Poroshenko is running to win his father’s seat in *district 12*.
> A year ago he won a special election for oblast council in Bershad rayon
> and now seeks to build upon his achievement. Odds are highly in his favor.
> Vinnitsya’s second most powerful political family, the Kaletniks face tough
> re-election battles. Wealthy from controlling the Customs Office on the
> Transnistria border, the family’s past association with Yanukovych and the
> Communists (Oksana was a faction member) are a liability this cycle. In *district
> 16 *Oksana faces a rematch from Yuri Makedon who she edged 43-37% last
> time while in *district 18 *Grigory also faces a rematch from Kostantyn
> Yakumenko from Byut (Grigory won 46-33% last time), the Mayor of Nemirov
> Oleksandr Kachur (with Lyashko’s Radical Party) and from Poroshenko backed
> businessman leader Ruslan Demchak.
> *Volyn 20 (Horokhiv):* Independent MP and agri-businessman Serhiy
> Martynyak faces a rematch from Byut backed Roman Karpyuk (former MP) who he
> edged by just 461 votes last time (29.6 to 29.2%). Former MP and oblast
> council chairman Volodymyr Bondar is Poroshenko’s candidate in the race.
> *Donetsk 48 (Kramatorsk): *Few districts in the Donbass are likely to
> hold elections due to the threat from the terrorists. However in
> Kramatorsk, Serhiy Blyzhyuk, son of the former Governor is running as an
> independent. Blyzhyuk remains a member of the Party of Regions and faces 17
> opponents including Poroshenko and Byut backed candidates. Historically,
> Kramatorsk and Mariupol have been the most pro-European oriented
> electorates in Donetsk oblast. Tymoshenko for example, received her largest
> vote percentage in the region here in the 2010 presidential election
> (almost 10% of the vote). Watch this race carefully. If Blyzhyuk wins then
> expect the Donetsk elites to re-emerge emboldened despite the events of the
> last year. If the Poroshenko or Byut backed candidate pulls an upset, then
> the decline of the Donetsk clan will continue for a longer period of time.
> *Zakarpattya 69 (Mukachevo), 71 (Hust), 72 (Tyachiv), & 73 (Vinogradiv): *The
> Poroshenko-Kaletnyk influence in Vinnitsya is minor league when compared to
> the Baloha family dominance of Zakarpattya oblast. With former Yushchenko
> Chief of Staff Victor Baloha breezing to re-election in *district 69*,
> his brother Pavlo is set to hold his seat in *district 71*. The other
> Baloha brother, Ivan is positioned as the front runner in*district 73 *after
> his opponent from 2012 MP Bushko declined to run for re-election. Bushko,
> then the Party of Regions candidate, defeated Ivan Baloha 41-36% in one of
> many dirty elections that cycle. Baloha “best friend” Vasyl Petovka is
> running for re-election in *district 70 *to keep four of six seats in the
> oblast in the family’s hands. It’s no wonder that Zakarpattya is sometimes
> to referred to as “Baloga-stan”.
> *Zaporizhya 82 (Polohi): *Agri-businessman Vadim Kryvohatko wasn’t able
> to campaign very actively in 2012 due to trumped up criminal charges
> against from the local Party of Regions controlled prosecutor. This time he
> is seeking a rematch against incumbent MP Oleksandr Dudka. Dudka remains a
> member of the Party of Regions faction in Parliament but is running as an
> independent this cycle. Byut once again has a candidate in the race which
> will complicate the math for Kryvohatko, despite backing from Poroshenko.
> Last time, the combined votes for Kryvohatko (with UDAR) and Byut were more
> than Dudka’s but negotiations to get the Byut candidate out of the race
> beforehand fell through. Kryvohatko also must overcome a clone “Vadim
> Kryvohatko that has registered as a candidate. This race will be a bell
> weather as if Poroshenko backed candidates are winning in Zaporizhya, it
> will likely signal a clear majority for the Poroshenko bloc in the next
> parliament.
> *Kirovohrad 101 (Holovanivsk): *District 101 features MP Vitaliy
> Hrushevskiy (formerly Party of Regions and now Peace and Stability faction
> in parliament) facing challenge from singer/MP Mykhaylo Poplavskiy (aka the
> Wayne Newton of Ukraine). Poplavskiy was an MP with the People’s Party
> (Lytvyn) in the past and as recently as last December, won a special
> election in Cherkasy (with Party of Regions backing). Poplavskiy’s
> flirtation with the Party of Regions was brief though, as he was one of the
> first MP’s from the majority to break ranks on February 21 to prevent
> martial law and oust Yanukovych the following day. The district includes
> the area of Kirovohrad where the Odesa Highway is located, which gives
> Poplavskiy’s numerous restaurants located there an opportunity to help his
> candidacy by turning out their “50 kinds of varenniki” and cheburyeki.
> Poplavskiy must not only defeat the incumbent Hrushevskiy but also
> candidates from the Poroshenko bloc, Byut, Lyashko and a Poplavskiy clone.
> *Lviv 115 (Sykhivskiy Rayon in the city) & 124 (Sokal): *Former
> Yushchenko Deputy Premier Ivan Vasyunyuk makes a political comeback as the
> front runner in *district 115 *for the vacated seat of former Byut MP
> Mykhaylo Khmil. Vasyunyuk is running from National Front and his brother
> Ivan (elected in 2012 from district 117 in Lviv) is #17 on the party list.
> Lacking the famous family name, Khmil gets the consolation prize of #42 on
> the National Front party list. At the moment, National Front is not likely
> to receive that many seats on the proportional ballot but when a government
> is formed with its members then enough seats could open up for Khmil to
> return to parliament. *In district 124*, longtime Byut MP Stefan Kurpil
> faces an independent challenge from the Minister of Health Oleg Musiy, who
> rose to prominence as a lead doctor for Euromaidan. Former Ternopil
> Governor Yuri Chyzhmar is also in the race.
> *Mykolayiv 127 (Zavodskiy rayon in the city): *Former Prime Minister
> Anatoliy Kinakh (2001-2002) has returned to Mykolayiv to run for the seat
> vacated by Regions MP Nakonechniy. Kinakh served as the elected Governor of
> the region prior to the 1996 Constitution which changed the system from
> elections to presidential appointments. Poroshenko, National Front, Byut,
> Democratic Alliance and Lyashko are all fielding challengers in the race.
> *Odesa 135 (Prymorskiy Rayon in the city), 141 (Bilgorod Dnistovskiy) &
> 143 (Izmayil):*Odesa city *district 135 *has a whopping 47 registered
> candidates (including Darth Vader) competing for the seat currently held by
> MP Serhiy Kivalov. Kivalov is still remembered in infamy for his time as
> Chairman of the Central Election Commission in the 2004 Orange Revolution.
> Even though most of the Odesa business and political elites (that backed
> Yanukovych a year ago) have made peace and sworn allegiance to Poroshenko,
> there is still a sense that a sacrifice must be made. Kivalov has the
> highest profile and appears to be the most easily expendable. Yet Kivalov
> is a savvy politician and will not go down without a fight. As they say,
> “you can’t beat something with nothing”. Thus, until a clear challenger
> emerges from the pack, Kivalov is counting on the confusion to carrying him
> to another term in parliament. *District 141* features incumbent MP
> Vitaliy Barvinenko in a rematch with Serhiy Dubovoy in a race that could be
> renamed “the clone wars”. Both are running as independents and Barvinenko
> prevailed in 2012 by a 42-35% margin. Out of the 39 candidates in the race,
> there are four Barvinenko’s and three Duboviy’s and a Dubovoy. While
> Poroshenko, Tyhypko, and National Front also have candidates in the race,
> the real question is will the Barvinenko or Duboviy clones siphon enough
> votes to make the difference in the race. In *district 143*, son of
> former Odesa Mayor Ruslan Bodelan (independent) is making a second bid to
> win the seat being vacating by his 2012 opponent, MP Yuri Kruk (formerly
> Party of Regions). Kruk won 24-17% last time over Bodelan but chose to run
> on the Strong Ukraine list this time around (#30). Bodelan’s main opponent
> is MP Oleksandr Duboviy (currently in the Byut faction but running
> independently) who is the brother of Serhiy Dubovoy in district 141. Former
> Odesa Governor under Yushchenko, Ivan Plachkov, is also competing in the
> district.
> *Kharkiv 168 (Dzherynskiy rayon in the city): *Regions MP Valeriy
> Pysarenko is one of the few Regions faction members running with the party
> label this cycle. He faces a challenge from fellow Kharkiv MP Vitaliy
> Nemilostiviy (elected #62 on the Byut list in 2012). Nemilostiviy left Byut
> to run as the Poroshenko backed candidate in the race. Ivan Varchenko, who
> is now the Acting Deputy Head of the Kharkiv Governor’s Office, is another
> former Kharkiv Byut leader and is the candidate from National Front. A
> total of 18 candidates are fighting to win the race.
> *Kherson 184 (Nova Kahovka): *Former Regions MP Mykola Dmytruk (now
> independent) faces a rematch with Ivan Vinnik in what was 2012’s closest
> election. Just 22 votes out of 78,000 cast separated Dmytruk from Vinnik.
> This time Vinnik is running with Poroshenko’s backing (last time as an
> independent) but has to overcome a clone candidate (also named Vinnik), his
> own controversial business past relating to a local construction company, a
> dozen opponents and Dmytruk to win.
> *Khmelnytskiy 188 (city): *In another 2012 rematch, Independent MP Serhiy
> Labazyuk faces his top two challengers again. Last time Labazyuk won 28.4%
> to 27.9% (469 vote margin out of 93,000 total) over independent Viktor
> Kolishchak and Byut backed Dmitro Bespalov (who received 20.8%). Kolishchak
> is counting on momentum from being the Poroshenko bloc candidate this time
> as well as the 11% of votes that went to the UDAR candidate last time
> (presumably which will go to the Poroshenko bloc) making the difference in
> the election. Third place finisher Bespalov has also repackaged himself by
> leaving Byut for National Front in this race.
> *Cherkasy 200 (Uman): *Anton Yatsenko defeated a United Center Party
> (Baloha) candidate 30-23% in 2012 when he was the nominee from the Party of
> Regions. This time he is running independently to try to fend off fellow MP
> Vitaliy Chudnovskiy. Chudnovskiy was elected as an independent last time in
> Kyiv district 90 (Bila Tserkva area) which is on the same Odessa highway to
> district Cherkasy 200 (Uman). However Chudnovskiy is aided by being the
> Poroshenko bloc candidate as well as having a Yatsenko clone in the race.
> Former Yushchenko Governor Oleksandr Cherevko is running with Tyhypko’s
> Strong Ukraine Party which makes the race even more interesting.
> *Kyiv 219 (Svytoshyn Rayon in the city): *Volodymyr Bondarenko won this
> seat in 2012 by a comfortable margin (44-30%) then resigned to serve as
> Acting Head of the Kyiv Mayor’s Office. His term as Kyiv Mayor lasted less
> than three months due to the May election which gave Vitaliy Klitchko a
> decisive victory (Bondarenko was a distant second). Bondarenko is now back
> in a bid to win his old seat and faces a challenge from former Yushchenko
> Deputy Chief of Staff Oleksandr Tretyakov. Tretyakov lost to MP Volodymyr
> Aryev with Byut in Kyiv district 218 in 2012 (39-26%), in one of the most
> expensive elections that year. Ironically, Aryev left Byut to run as the
> Poroshenko bloc candidate in district 218 with and now Tretyakov is the
> Poroshenko bloc candidate in district 219. Given Tretyakov’s past baggage,
> a victory in district 218 against Byut loyalist Bondarenko would signal a
> long and disappointing night for Tymoshenko and company.
>  *Dates to Watch:*
>  *• October 7 – Special Parliamentary Session to pass anti-corruption
> laws.* This special session is both the result of the IMF’s demands to
> tackle the problem as well as political expediency as polls show support
> for an independent anti-corruption bureau at well over 70%. Ukraine is
> dependent on IMF funding to get through the economic crisis inherited from
> the Yanukovych government and worsened by the war. With the honeymoon with
> the IMF bankers coming to end, Ukraine is required to demonstrate a higher
> level of commitment to reducing corruption which has been epidemic for
> decades. Passage of the laws will also give the pro-European politicians
> some additional momentum less than three weeks before the election.
> *• October 14 – The Last Parliamentary Session Scheduled.* This is the
> last scheduled meeting of the current parliament before the election.
> Expect high rhetoric in this final meeting just 12 days before the election
> with an abundance of charges and allegations from politicians seeking to up
> their poll numbers. As for substance, wait for the next parliament to be
> seated in November. This meeting with be 80% theater.
> *• October 26 – Election Day.*
>
>