Subject: 6 Days: Senate Election Outlook
From: "John Isaacs" <[email-masked]>
To: "John Isaacs" <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 29 Oct 2014 18:29:14 +0000

6 Days: Senate Election Outlook<http://blog.livableworld.org/story/2014/10/29/135418/61>
Oct 29, 2014 | Posted by John Isaacs<http://blog.livableworld.org/user/John%20Isaacs>
[http://blog.livableworld.org/images/user/6/mcconnell_as_darth_vadar_240.jpg]<http://blog.livableworld.org/images/user/6/mcconnell_as_darth_vadar.jpg>Republicans continue to have an edge in the contest for control of the Senate, but there are still too many close contests to pull a Romney (A Romney: bring his major supporters to Boston in 2012 for a victory party). Mitt was 47% correct.

Cook Political Report still lists ten toss-ups: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

Real Clear Politics agrees on that list.

Nate Silver's 538 still gives a slight edge to the Republicans, with a 62% chance of winning the Senate.

But at the same time, Silver debunks <http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-the-momentum-mirage/> the "momentum toward Republicans" meme outlined in The Washington Post <http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-midterm-momentum-belongs-to-gop/2014/10/27/6cb63a74-5e0d-11e4-9f3a-7e28799e0549_story.html> and elsewhere, which he labeled "The Momentum Mirage."

Silver argues: "When the FiveThirtyEight model launched Sept. 2, it gave Republicans a 64 percent chance of winning Senate control. In our latest forecast, their chances are 62 percent. They've never been higher than 66 percent or lower than 53 percent."

He added that while the Post generic ballot test gave Republicans a 6 percentage point advantage, a similar Fox News test suggested Democrats were up by one point. If this is to be a wave election toward the Republicans, it does not show up in any polling.

Not much has changed since our most recent analysis a week ago.

In Michigan, Peters (D) has built a strong lead over Land (R).This is one contest that can be taken out of the contested category.

In South Dakota, the latest polls give Rounds (R) a strong advantage.

A number of states have contradictory polls.

In Alaska, Begich (D) is either 6 points ahead or 4 points behind Sullivan (R), depending on which poll you consult.

In New Hampshire, Shaheen (D) is either 5 points ahead or 1 point behind.

In Iowa, Ernst (R) is either 4 points ahead or 1 point behind.

Not only do the polls disagree, but many voters are immune to further persuasion, if for no other reason than that they have already cast their votes: half a million in Georgia and 660,000 in Colorado.

So on election night, sharpen your pencils, hold on to your hats, and let the better team win (we all know who that is).

Before then, don't forget about our bi-annual election contest. Free to enter; predictions due by midnight eastern standard time on November 3rd, the night before the elections. Top three participants win a cash prize!

Click here to enter.<http://livableworld.org/elections/2014/rules_and_resources_2014/>

The latest polling last updated October 29 (check here<http://livableworld.org/elections/2014/senate_election_2014_roundup/> for the latest polling. for the daily update):

John Isaacs
Senior Fellow
Council for a Livable World & Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
322 4th Street, NE
Washington, D.C. 20002-5824
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