Subject: Election Update / Guesstimate
From: "Scott Bates" <[email-masked]>
To: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 3 Nov 2014 08:54:46 -0500

My best guess based on data, rumors and my gut:

*US Senate*
         The core races essentially settled start us at
          Republicans 48
          Democrats   46

This leaves six races in play, all within the margin of error. Those are:
         Alaska
         Georgia
         Iowa
         Kansas
         North Carolina
         Colorado

For Dems to get to 51 will be like pulling an inside straight.  To get to
50 (my prediction of long standing), will require luck and prayer..but it's
possible.

The real problem is that in each of these states the President is around 40
approval- so our candidates have to run far ahead of him. Exceedingly hard
to do especially in a mid-term.

*The Good News*
We have a good shot at winning the Governors Mansions in Pennsylvania and
Florida- which means a lot for future redistricting- think the need to
re-take the US House.  The US Senate terrain also looks very favorable for
2016.

*Early Trends to Watch*
Kentucky comes in early. If McConnell has a close one that is a positive
trend.  Also New Hampshire reports in pretty quickly- Mike Breen and our
team have been on this one for a while.  If we lose New Hampshire , the
bottom is falling out of the tub.  It's a must win for any Dem win
scenario..but not guaranteed to be sure.

*The Republicans will likely take control of Congress for the next two
years and accomplish nothing- thus creating the potential for a Democratic
comeback.*

*What does this mean for our organization?*
With the President at 40% favorable and Congress in the hands of the
Republicans, there will be a great need and tremendous opportunity
to re-cast the Democratic Party in terms of the ideas and voices needed to
connect with the American people. After two more years of gridlock- people
will be looking for new ideas and voices which will resonate with
authenticity on how we can deliver prosperity and security for Americans in
a rapidly changing world.  We've been building infrastructure to provide
some of those voices and ideas via our 2016 Project.  Caveat- and of course
we hope right thinking Republicans will join us in this effort as
well...all in the hope of helping our great nation be well positioned for
the great global changes that we are already breaking on our shores.

PS-  I think leadership that connects with the working class will be a
pre-requisite for the Democratic Comeback in 2016