Subject: POLITICO Huddle: HAPPY ELECTION DAY! – Hour-by-hour viewer’s guide – $423M IN SENATE ADS – Biden stumps to save House Dems – REID’S FATEFUL NIGHT -- Coming home (early) for Christmas?
From: "POLITICO Huddle" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 04 Nov 2014 07:16:16 -0600

By Seung Min Kim (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked]  or @seungminkim)

IT'S THE BIG DAY - POLITICO's James Hohmann and Alex Isenstadt with the essential viewer's guide for Election Day 2014: "On the Senate side, the states to watch are New Hampshire and North Carolina: If Republicans come out on top in either state - Democratic incumbents are favored in both - the odds of a GOP-controlled Senate will instantly skyrocket. On the House side, if Republicans pick up seats early in the night in blue terrain like Illinois and New York, it could signal bigger-than-expected GOP gains." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737b97e309e333bb8f0c618be60d7e03a77c56022b43366da6c2 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737b97e309e333bb8f0c618be60d7e03a77c56022b43366da6c2 

Some highlights of what to watch for hour-by-hour, per Hohmann and Isenstadt -

-- 7 p.m. - "Rep. John Barrow [of Georgia], the only white Democrat representing a district in the Deep South, has run one of the best campaigns of the year ... If Barrow goes down, it will be an early sign that things are heading in the wrong direction for Democrats."

--7:30 p.m. - "North Carolina - where polls close at half-past seven - is the year's most expensive Senate race. Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan has a slight advantage going into Election Day, driven by her party's perceived strength in early voting."

--8 p.m. - "Republican Scott Brown [in New Hampshire] has tried to nationalize the contest against personally popular Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, and we'll know early if the strategy has worked. If it's a truly bad night for Democrats, watch for Gov. Maggie Hassan to find herself in hot water."

--8:30 p.m. - "Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) will probably be the first incumbent senator to be called a loser Tuesday night, as Republican Senate candidate Tom Cotton opened a stubborn lead in the final days. If it stays close, that means Democrats weren't bluffing when they said they registered more than 100,000 new voters."

--9 p.m. - "Kansas' Pat Roberts is the only truly vulnerable Republican Senate incumbent. For him and Gov. Sam Brownback to hold on, he needs the western reaches of the state to come out big - by a 2-to-1 margin with high turnout ... [And] there may be no state more important to the House GOP's hopes than New York."

--10 p.m. - "A Republican win in the open Iowa Senate race would go a long way toward a GOP majority. We'll find out whether the Des Moines Register poll that showed GOP candidate Joni Ernst up 7 points was an outlier or a harbinger."

--1 a.m. - "If Senate control comes down to Alaska, it could take a while; some precincts in the Aleutians don't close until 1 a.m. There are big batches of absentee, early votes from far-flung areas that won't be counted for days. Both campaigns caution that a chunk of votes may not get counted until next week."

STATS OF THE DAY - From the Washington Post: "The night's big prize is the U.S. Senate. The campaign to control it began last spring, and it built to a monster that has dominated television commercial breaks for months. At last count, an estimated $423 million had been spent to air 878,000 TV spots about Senate races, according to Kantar Media data analyzed by the Wesleyan Media Project." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737b3d59ff6bcf4287e0dcf2c637d0e8558cd506e8c61d9cc79c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737b3d59ff6bcf4287e0dcf2c637d0e8558cd506e8c61d9cc79c 

@rickklein: 47% of ads in #COSEN race referenced abortion, per @CMAGAdFacts and @c_good

--Fresh fundraising numbers out this morning from the NRSC, courtesy of Hohmann: "The National Republican Senatorial Committee brought in just less than $17.1 million during October ... The party committee had about $4.7 million cash on hand as of midnight Friday - but $9 million in debt after taking out a late loan in their play to seize the Senate majority ... The NRSC's number also includes a $4 million transfer from the Republican National Committee." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737bca93563b7af6ded52002c6d044984302265f2fe77434ceff 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737bca93563b7af6ded52002c6d044984302265f2fe77434ceff 

CHEAT SHEET: POLL CLOSING TIMES - 

An excellent graphic from USA Today: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737bfa93053fe1dac8a6495d2d45a40d7b048c5b9f6eac326726 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737bfa93053fe1dac8a6495d2d45a40d7b048c5b9f6eac326726 . And the full list below -- 

--7 p.m. - Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

--7:30 p.m. - North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia

--8 p.m. - Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee

--8:30 p.m. - Arkansas

--9 p.m. - Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

--10 p.m. - Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah

--11 p.m. - California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington

--1 a.m. - Alaska

--Roll Call lists key counties to watch in marquee Senate races: Arapahoe County and Jefferson County in Colorado; Sedgewick County and Johnson County in Kansas; Gwinett, Henry and Douglas Counties in Georgia; Guilford, Wake and Mecklenburg Counties in North Carolina; and Polk County in Iowa: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737b342eb67a5e97995aae254bd3250ecc934d1cf9ef45893097 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737b342eb67a5e97995aae254bd3250ecc934d1cf9ef45893097 

--As of Monday, the White House was still upbeat on the prospects for Democrats hanging on to Senate control. The Wall Street Journal: "The White House isn't conceding any ground ahead of Tuesday's election ... 'I don't agree with the oddsmakers,' Vice President Joe Biden said on CNN. 'I predict we're going to keep the Senate.' White House spokesman Josh Earnest echoed those words, saying, 'I do think that Democrats will retain the majority.'" 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737bef315e2c76564e0cf4fec0a0ad314a43e5ed40dbc5c60efd 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737bef315e2c76564e0cf4fec0a0ad314a43e5ed40dbc5c60efd 

COMING HOME (EARLY) FOR CHRISTMAS? The Washington Post's Lori Montgomery makes the case: "What if the election doesn't end Tuesday? What if control of the Senate is left up in the air pending runoffs in Louisiana (Dec. 6) or Georgia (Jan. 6)? What if Congress has to come back to work next week with no idea who will run the place? Answer: Perhaps the shortest lame-duck session since President Obama was elected."

--"Policymaking has ground to a complete halt in Washington, to a degree that's almost eerie after six years of action-forcing deadlines and economic crises. Ask anybody on Capitol Hill about any major issue - What's up with tax reform? What's the outlook for an immigration bill? What's next for the budget? - and they'll tell you the question can't be answered until they know the outcome of Tuesday's elections. 'It's a jump ball in so many of these races, everyone is doubled down and focused on the campaign,' said one Democratic leadership aide." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737b99926100773fc052d73a9410e53cfcd73fa2e5744eb7fb6f 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737b99926100773fc052d73a9410e53cfcd73fa2e5744eb7fb6f 

BEST ENDORSEMENT OF THE '14 CYCLE - Take it away, New York Daily News: "Desperate times call for desperate measures, and beyond all doubt we are desperate in considering the choice for Congress in the district representing Staten Island and southern Brooklyn. In Domenic Recchia, the Democrats have fielded a candidate so dumb, ill-informed, evasive and inarticulate that voting for a thuggish Republican who could wind up in a prison jumpsuit starts to make rational sense."

--"At least Michael Grimm can string three sentences together in arguing that he deserves the presumption of innocence on federal criminal charges stemming from his past operation of a restaurant." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737be93994ad03c48895a1e743bc410f3b306db99e05336d5da9 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1dd8dce36bcf737be93994ad03c48895a1e743bc410f3b306db99e05336d5da9 

HARRY REID'S FATEFUL NIGHT - From Jon Ralston, the journalist who knows Reid best, writing for POLITICO magazine: "Nobody in politics has had a worse run-up to Nov. 4 than Harry Reid. Polls indicate the Senate majority leader might have a change of title foisted upon him-or, in the fevered dreams of some Republicans, perhaps be left with no title at all as he sees a grim Schumer reaper shadowing him ... Yet, no one has had more funeral notices retracted over the course of a political career than Harry Mason Reid, whose resilience and toughness, forged in the crucible of his hardscrabble childhood, seem serially to have given him new political life when death seemed inevitable."

--"[N]ever have the political headwinds been so strong-thanks in part to the languishing approval numbers of the president he has served as a loyal legislative general, but also because of Reid's Senate stewardship, which has made him an issue in many campaigns and induced senators and candidates he has helped to muse openly about not voting for him as leader. Still, we're talking about Harry Reid here-so I find all of this comical and familiar. None of those senators would dare oppose him, and this kind of chatter happens every cycle about this time, forcing Reidites to swat away the speculation." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe229c5e1666977648ce6185898541ce9bcadf1711a7207a7575 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe229c5e1666977648ce6185898541ce9bcadf1711a7207a7575 

JOE BIDEN, HOUSE DEM SAVIOR - The Los Angeles Times's Michael A. Memoli: "Earlier than expected, there is a Biden-Clinton race underway - between Joe Biden and Bill Clinton, that is. In a year when an unpopular President Obama has been forced to scale back his campaigning to only the bluest states, former President Clinton has been the most visible and in-demand Democratic surrogate ... But the vice president quietly has kept up with - if not surpassed - the other Democratic luminaries, a fact that is all the more striking given the extent to which the party&#39;s candidates have tried to demonstrate independence from the administration."

-- "According to his office&#39;s tally, Biden - who has not said whether he would challenge Hillary Clinton for the 2016 Democratic nomination - has done more than 114 events for 66 different candidates, committees and parties. Biden has taken a personal interest in what might be viewed as a thankless endeavor, emerging as a patron saint of the embattled House Democrat." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22425f2e3826df8fc751fe5c8583cad9b8e6de0b18d4c89b62 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22425f2e3826df8fc751fe5c8583cad9b8e6de0b18d4c89b62 

HAPPY ELECTION DAY, NOV. 4, 2014 and welcome to The Huddle, where we're really, truly ready for all those fundraising and campaign emails to stop. Please continue sending your tips, suggestions, comments, complaints, and corrections to 
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] . If you don&#39;t already, please follow me on Twitter @seungminkim.

My new followers include @MorganKIRO7 and @JoeyKalmin.

AROUND THE HILL - Is there something going on today?

OBAMA, INTERRUPTED - If you've been distracted with the midterms and forgotten about the looming executive action on immigration, activists are making sure you - and Obama - remember what the president has promised. Jennifer Epstein and me: "President Barack Obama can't seem to get through a big public speech without being heckled by immigration reform advocates ... Obama's not the only prominent Democrat getting heckled. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was interrupted multiple times during a Thursday speech in Maryland. First lady Michelle Obama was heckled that same day in Connecticut. Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) cut short a speech last week as protesters refused to relent."

--"A protest against deportations during an Obama speech in San Francisco last November drew national attention, and immigration-related interruptions have become commonplace since. They are aimed not only at pressuring Obama to take sweeping executive actions on immigration, but at making clear to Democrats that they can't take the Latino vote for granted." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe2203d0183473056c92f56077fe3238cbf28ea292f4004fd969 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe2203d0183473056c92f56077fe3238cbf28ea292f4004fd969 

NANCY PELO$I RAKES IN $101M - Or as the San Francisco Chronicle calls it, "101 million reasons why Pelosi's leadership job is safe." Carolyn Lochhead writes: "As of Friday, the San Franciscan had raised $101.3 million for her party this election cycle, bringing her career total to $428.8 million since she entered the Democratic leadership in 2002. No one in her party comes even close, according to her office. Of the total this cycle, $65.2 million went to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of House Democrats. That's more than a third of the committee's fundraising total."

--"In the last two years, according to her office, Pelosi has attended 750 fundraising events in 115 cities. That comes out tomore than an event every day, including holidays." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22303c5ed50a483346701f7de9aade98d6e6d2b36f1d94f6e4 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22303c5ed50a483346701f7de9aade98d6e6d2b36f1d94f6e4 

BOEHNER CASH WATCH: NONE FOR THE TROUBLEMAKERS - Huddle alum Scott Wong, writing for The Hill: "Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) hasn't given a dime this election cycle to the 10 incumbent Republicans who participated in a failed coup attempt against him nearly two years ago ... Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-S.C.), for example, received $20,000 total from Boehner's Freedom Project during the course of the 2010 and 2012 cycles before voting against him for speaker. Rep. Raul Labrador (R-Idaho), who abstained from the speaker vote, received $15,000 during that same period before being shut out in the midterm campaign."

--"Four other dissenters - GOP Reps. Jim Bridenstine (Okla.), Steve Pearce (N.M.), Thomas Massie (Ky.) and Ted Yoho (Fla.) - each received $5,000 from Boehner's leadership PAC in the 2012 cycle but zilch since then ... The speaker has raised more than $100 million in campaign cash this cycle, a personal best." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22c85676fc2bd7ffc90934cfa455e32bad53be2855c09d3640 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22c85676fc2bd7ffc90934cfa455e32bad53be2855c09d3640 

WOMEN BOOST DIVERSITY IN HOUSE -- The Huffington Post's Laura Bassett: "The Democrats have already elected Alma Adams of North Carolina to fill the seat vacated by former Rep. Mel Watt (D) ... The party also expects to add Brenda Lawrence of Michigan, Norma Torres of California and Bonnie Watson Coleman of New Jersey to its ranks in the House. On the Republican side, Mia Love from Utah is likely to become the first black woman ever to join the GOP caucus in the House. Republicans are also hoping to elect Marilinda Garcia of New Hampshire, who is running in a tight race against Rep. Annie Kuster (D)."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22d1f7b61f204aec4d0f30502658005408fb165462796db950 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22d1f7b61f204aec4d0f30502658005408fb165462796db950 

--The New York Post profiles Republican Elise Stefaniak, who at 30 is poised to become the youngest ever woman elected to the House. The lawmaker who's held that title for more than 40 years - former Rep. Elizabeth Holtzman (D-N.Y.) - would check with Congress after every election to see if her record had broken, per the Post: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22758b769e83b573f134c5c58715dad5bf0c0b02a59afab90d 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22758b769e83b573f134c5c58715dad5bf0c0b02a59afab90d 

--But don't be fooled into thinking that 2014 is going to be another "Year of the Woman," writes Nia-Malika Henderson of the Washington Post: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22043eeb492350271c0e1d7db0694bab278d68e448a69e1f7b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22043eeb492350271c0e1d7db0694bab278d68e448a69e1f7b 

SCOTUS REJECTS FILIBUSTER APPEAL - The AP: "The Supreme Court on Monday rejected an appeal from a public interest group and four members of Congress who challenged the Senate filibuster as unconstitutional. The justices let stand a lower court ruling that said Common Cause and the lawmakers did not have legal standing to pursue the case. The plaintiffs argued that Senate rules requiring at least 60 votes to bring legislation to a vote violates the constitutional principle of majority rule. A federal appeals court said the lawsuit was filed against the wrong parties." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22b0a58331e59f04d11f58b2a3689f6d0c809bc6c0d0fd8a17 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22b0a58331e59f04d11f58b2a3689f6d0c809bc6c0d0fd8a17 

MCCAIN STANDS BY SHAHEEN DISS - The Arizona Republic's Dan Nowicki: "U.S. Sen. John McCain is not backing off a hard-hitting critique of a Democratic colleague&#39;s performance on the Armed Services Committee, saying the Democrats who control the chamber can no longer expect traditional 'senatorial courtesy' after they dismantled the filibuster for most presidential nominations ... In Nashua, N.H., McCain said he doesn&#39;t consider Shaheen 'a serious member' of the Armed Services Committee, which has oversight on the Pentagon." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe2248aa037cc0b3f8a75ccecc37f0bc11ec8003845be065cc2b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe2248aa037cc0b3f8a75ccecc37f0bc11ec8003845be065cc2b 

MONDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER - Zilch. So I'm asking it again - see below.

TODAY&#39;S TRIVIA - This Virginian became the only statewide candidate in Virginia's history to be nominated by both political parties for the same office in the same election when he tied for the largest number of write-in votes and then won the tie-breaker in the opposing party&#39;s primary. Name the politician, the position he ran for and the year this occurred. The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in the next day's Huddle. Email 
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] .

GET HUDDLE emailed to your Blackberry, iPhone or other mobile device each morning. Just enter your email address where it says 'Sign Up.' 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe2282a0f28e1bcbfff402f8c4419ead8fdcfce3989155bd8638 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe2282a0f28e1bcbfff402f8c4419ead8fdcfce3989155bd8638 .

Go to POLITICO Huddle Now >> http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22452f2bfacc75f1492b80fc374fc6fe0738f74e5b33971dd7

Go to this edition >> http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe2250fa55374539702b1ae36cde30086c05640029aa192f28d0

=================================

2014 POLITICO, LLC

POLITICO Huddle.

To unsubscribe, http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba427b73e50bfe22a690cb41661274a3ab08c97b1bb3d17e51b4b1f6bddfed89

=================================