Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Good news for Dems in House nail-biters -- Club for Growth picks six for ’16 -- Heller’s designs on the NRSC chairmanship
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 13 Nov 2014 09:02:20 -0600

By Kyle Cheney

With James Hohmann

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro&#39;s Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day&#39;s most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (
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UNFINISHED BUSINESS - Latest updates from the uncalled races:

-- Slaughter wins in NY-25: Republican Mark Assini has conceded to veteran Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter after a final vote count Wednesday afternoon, the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle reports. A final tally had Slaughter leading Assini by 869 votes, 96,800 to 95,931. Assini called Slaughter to concede around 3:45 p.m., a Slaughter spokesman told the paper. Slaughter, who has won a 15th term in Congress, had been expected to cruise to reelection over the little-known Republican. 
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-- Brownley prevails in CA-26: Democrat Julia Brownley claimed victory Wednesday after an updated vote count showed her ahead of Republican Jeff Gorell by 2,370 votes, more than double her previous lead. The totals were updated after a second update of votes in Ventura County.
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-- Costa pulls ahead in CA-16: But the race is still too close to call. Democratic Rep. Jim Costa surged into the lead in the latest round of counting in this Fresno-area House district. Republican Johnny Tacherra led by about 700 votes after the previous tally, but with Wednesday's Count in Fresno - which Costa carried nearly two to one - Costa took an 86-vote lead, according to the Fresno Bee. Tacherra was already in Washington for freshman orientation, according to the report. The Bee reports that Wednesday's count reflects the last 10,300 mail-in ballots in Fresno County. But there are thousands of provisional ballots to count as well, including 10,100 in Fresno, 1,505 in Merced County
 and 722 in Madera County. 
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-- Bera takes the lead in CA-7: He trailed by 3,000 votes on Election Day, but Democratic Rep. Ami Bera has taken a 711-vote lead in the contest with Republican Doug Ose in the latest count, the Sacramento Bee reports. There are still 10,000 mailed ballots and 9,000 provisional ballots to examine, a prospect the Bee reports could keep the race in limbo for another week. The next count is set for Friday. 
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-- Barber preps for recount in AZ-02: Democratic Rep. Ron Barber outlined the recount process Wednesday, as his campaign prepped for a brand new count in the contest he has trailed narrowly to this point. The final margin in his contest against Republican Martha McSally was less than 200 votes, under the 0.1 percent threshold that triggers an automatic recount under state law. "The law is written this way because every election includes some human error, and with an election as close as this one, it is important that we ensure the integrity of the results," Barber's camp said in a statement. The statement came on the same day that Pima County officials said they had foudn 200 extra ballots
 in the race, Arizona Public Media reports: 
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-- Although a recount is a certainty, McSally's camp insisted Wednesday night it had defeated Barber by 161 votes. "While we still have a recount to go, we expect similar results and will provide the necessary oversight to ensure accurate results," McSally said in a statement.

-- AK-Gov: Parnell won't concede: Alaska independent gubernatorial candidate Bill Walker, narrowly ahead in the ballot counting over incumbent Republican Sean Parnell, is forging ahead with a transition team, the Alaska Dispatch News reports. But Parnell is not conceding. 
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-- AK-Sen: And neither will Begich: Democratic Sen. Mark Begich has not conceded, but Republican challenger Dan Sullivan was at the Capitol in Washington for new-member orientation yesterday. The Associated Press said it has stopped counting ballots in the state. The wire service called the Senate race for Sullivan Tuesday night but has not made a call in the governor's race. Walker currently leads Parnell by 4,004 votes, or 1.6 percentage points. Sullivan leads Begich by 7,911 votes, according to the latest tally.

With liberals ducking Clinton and jockeying for 2016 campaign committee leadership accelerates, here&#39;s POLITICO&#39;s Morning Score: your daily guide to the 2014 midterms.

Days until the 2016 election: 726

Thanks for joining us. We're eager for your news and feedback. Email us at 
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TODAY ON CAMPAIGN PRO - Club for Growth PAC backs six for Senate reelection: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd583d72463b6e09f4eef2103ba6498716c997456afab0694d 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd583d72463b6e09f4eef2103ba6498716c997456afab0694d 

-- "Kirk staffer moving to campaign side": 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cddc2ab1943c100aebd69924b841acb0600e218029693873d74 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cddc2ab1943c100aebd69924b841acb0600e218029693873d74 

2016 WATCH - "Clinton left out in cold by liberal donor club," By Kenneth P. Vogel: "Vice President Joe Biden will join Sen. Elizabeth Warren and other leading progressives in addressing a closed-door gathering of elite liberal donors - a roster of speakers that notably doesn't include Hillary Clinton. The annual winter meeting of the Democracy Alliance, a group of funders of liberal causes, isn't a presidential cattle call. But speculation about the 2016 Democratic presidential race looms over the four-day gathering, which started Wednesday at Washington's Mandarin Oriental hotel. Last year's meeting was a lovefest for Warren, whose speech fired up the crowd. This year's program, reviewed
 by POLITICO, includes sessions on numerous progressive causes - including fighting climate change, reducing the role of money in politics and more rigorously regulating Wall Street - on which Warren is seen as more liberal than Clinton." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd21ff86f1403f8c72755d9a7bad4f1d3c31a3433aa16de141 
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-- Giuliani offers an anti-Clinton strategy: Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani stopped by the POLITICO newsroom Wednesday and suggested that Republicans would do well to avoid being personal with the former secretary of state. Instead, he said, they should focus on her policy record and the results of her tenure at state, as a senator and as first lady. He also talked about Chris Christie's strengths and flaw, and why he's obsessed with Charlie Crist (not in a good way): 
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BATTLE BORN - "Heller pressed Sandoval into Reid race," by Manu Raju: Nevada Sen. Dean Heller and fellow Senate Republicans are beginning to press GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval to jump into the 2016 race against Sen. Harry Reid. Heller, who is running for chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Wednesday that 'of course' he reached out to Sandoval and urged him to consider a bid against Reid, the outgoing majority leader who plans to remain as Democratic leader in the Senate minority. Other Senate Republicans have also begun the outreach, Heller and GOP aides said. ... If he runs the committee, which would lead the charge to protect the GOP's new majority, Heller said his
 top political adviser, Mike Slanker, would remain in Nevada and not run the day-to-day operations. While he would 'lean on' Nevada GOP operatives for advice, Heller said staffing decisions would be made in consultation with McConnell." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd54549b134bd188286e266cbaefd7d0ae5e85ed76156f224c 
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-- "Tester is Dems&#39; likely pick to run Senate 2016 effort," by Manu Raju and John Bresnahan: "Senate Democratic leaders are likely to name Montana Sen. Jon Tester to run the party's campaign arm in the 2016 election cycle, a key position central to the party's efforts to retake the majority, according to two sources familiar with the deliberations ... In an interview Wednesday, Tester, a farmer who won his second Senate term in 2012, seemed open to the job of running the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in the next election cycle. 'If it were offered, I would absolutely take a look at it and see if we can make it work,' said Tester after leaving a morning meeting with Senate
 Majority Leader Harry Reid. 'It would allow me to get in our leadership meetings, which is very important to me. Raising money is never fun, but that's part of the job too. So I guess you take the good with the bad.'" 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd23c3c1b9ecc3ab31545174b11202aeac5fe8042cf14a4f0d 
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-- Report: Kennedy bows out of DCCC running, by Alex Isenstadt: "Democratic Rep. Joe Kennedy has told party leaders he isn't interested in serving as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee during the 2016 election, The Boston Globe reported Wednesday. According to the newspaper, Democratic officials recently contacted Kennedy, a 34-year-old House freshman from Massachusetts and the grandson of the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, to see if he was interested in the position. But he told them he wasn't. The development came two days after POLITICO reported that party leaders were considering Kennedy and Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro, the brother of HUD Secretary Julian Castro,
 for the chairmanship. Both are seen as rising stars. 
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COURT WATCH - "Court weighs role of race in Alabama redistricting," by The Associated Press: "The Supreme Court wrestled Wednesday with a dispute over the use of race to redraw political districts that turns the usual arguments on their heads. The complicated case argued at the high court involves the use of a landmark voting rights law that led to the election of African-Americans across the South and Supreme Court decisions that limited the use of race to draw electoral maps. Only in this case, Republicans in Alabama are invoking the Voting Rights Act to justify concentrating black voters in some legislative districts, and African-Americans challenging the state&#39;s legislative maps
 said the GOP relied too heavily on race." ... A decision is expected by late June." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd4655c002df37ccd126f768566ea3a092567e903d9b2f0540 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd4655c002df37ccd126f768566ea3a092567e903d9b2f0540 

PERSONNEL MOVES - GOP veteran joins tech firm: Roberto Jose Coquis has joined CMDI as director of client relations, the company announced today. The veteran of Republican political campaigns is expected to work with GOP clients as they rely on apps like Crimson and WidgetMakr to enhance their campaign operations. Coquis worked on Republican presidential campaigns in 2012 and 2000, and he was also a Bush administration official for both terms.

POST-MORTEM - From Sabato's Crystal Ball: There aren't races to rate for awhile, so the Crystal Ball has a look at a few interested trends buried in last week's results. Some highlights:

-- Republicans won 13 of 14 open House seats held by a retiring member of the GOP caucus - the one exception being CA-31, where Republican Rep. Gary Miller in the most Democratic district held by a Republican in the country. Democrats lost three of the 10 seats being vacated by retiring members. Republicans also won all 11 districts in which members of their caucus vacated to run for a different office. Democrats lost two of six seats - those vacated by Reps. Bruce Braley in Iowa and Mike Michaud in Maine.

-- Incumbents, as expected, routed most challengers. In the House 96 percent of incumbents running won reelection - that's 372 out of 389. In the Senate, 23 out of 27 incumbents won, good for an 85 percent success rate. And in governor's mansions, 24 out of 27 incumbents won, an 89 percent survival rate. All three winning percentages beat the postwar averages for incumbent victories in election years. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdddcdbf60462cd68c833b3fb3fa5413328e940b078f93734b8 
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TAKING THE GOP'S 2016 TEMPERATURE - PPP polls ask Republican voters about presidential preferences: The Democratic robopolling firm is out with new data from eight states surveying Republican voters on the likely 2016 primary field. Jeb Bush leads or is tied for the lead in four of the eight states, Ben Carson holds three leads or ties, Mike Huckabee two and Chris Christie one. The toplines:

-- New Hampshire: Jeb Bush (15%), Ben Carson (15%), Chris Christie (11%), Mike Huckabee (11%), Ted Cruz (10%), Rand Paul (10%), Marco Rubio (7%), Paul Ryan (7%), Rick Perry (3 %), someone else/not sure (11%). 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd785474619d395697e7f209ec378eb5c4bfb74218e5f3bbf4 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd785474619d395697e7f209ec378eb5c4bfb74218e5f3bbf4 

-- Florida: Bush (29%), Carson (22%), Huckabee (9%), Christie (8%), Paul (7%), Rubio (7%), Cruz (6%), Perry (3%), Ryan (2%), someone else/notsure (7%): 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cddb1e3014ceef37e49aca149f1bb87920f6c737a25b1799674 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cddb1e3014ceef37e49aca149f1bb87920f6c737a25b1799674 

-- Colorado: Carson (22%), Bush (13%), Ryan (12%), Huckabee (10%), Christie (8%), Cruz (8%), Rubio (6%), Paul (5%), Perry (3%), someone else/not sure (13%): 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd34402048400daea95ffebd2a08489c02c81350119f46b947 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd34402048400daea95ffebd2a08489c02c81350119f46b947 

-- Connecticut: Christie (28%), Bush (17%), Carson (14%), Huckabee (8%), Paul (7%), Rubio (6%), Ryan (6%), Cruz (4%), Perry (1%), someone else/not sure (10%). 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd3b012653c24567e6128249281ca7e90b699dd0f1c51bdb1c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd3b012653c24567e6128249281ca7e90b699dd0f1c51bdb1c 

-- Idaho: Carson (14%), Huckabee (13%), Bush (11%), Ryan (10%), Christie (9%), Cruz (9%), Paul (9%), Perry (4%), Rubio (4%), someone else/not sure (18%): 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd1f5b025990d406dc7904973b0637ec674102682fd7cf3660 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd1f5b025990d406dc7904973b0637ec674102682fd7cf3660 

-- Illinois: Bush (18%), Carson (15%), Huckabee (13%), Christie (12%), Cruz (8%), Ryan (7%), Rubio (6%), Paul (5%), Perry (5%), someone else/not sure (11%): 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd53a9fc41d0d5c3c4c0c60ad56a486bf99d6992adcccad079 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd53a9fc41d0d5c3c4c0c60ad56a486bf99d6992adcccad079 

-- Michigan: Bush (18%), Carson (17%), Huckabee (13%), Christie (11%), Paul (9%), Ryan (8%), Cruz (7%), Rubio (4%), Perry (1%), someone else/not sure (11%): 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cddcf2832998ca560cb3de610b0fc7f1b119db76736aea13583 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cddcf2832998ca560cb3de610b0fc7f1b119db76736aea13583 

-- North Carolina: Huckabee (20%), Bush (17%), Carson (17%), Christie (8%), Cruz (6%), Paul (6%), Perry (6%), Ryan (6%), Rubio (3%), someone else/not sure (10%): 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cddd6c64b2e996494f3230793f379d2d125d7b56b56baa25bcc 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cddd6c64b2e996494f3230793f379d2d125d7b56b56baa25bcc 

ACROSS THE MAP - Quick takes from races across the country:

SENATE--

-- Louisiana Senate runoff: Bloomberg Politics reports on the Democratic abandonment of Mary Landrieu, who's being wildly outspent and smothered on the airwaves by a relentless Republican assault. Republican Bill Cassidy is heavily favored to win, but Democrats have done little to even give Landrieu a fair fight, Bloomberg reports: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cddbdb354280c4cb74a8f7e854a13e89290b6a22fb3fbc21528 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cddbdb354280c4cb74a8f7e854a13e89290b6a22fb3fbc21528 

-- More Senate runoff: "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is leaning on Democrats to give cash to help Sen. Mary Landrieu win a runoff race that will be critical if the party wants to reclaim the Senate in 2016, according to two Democratic sources. Landrieu buttonholed senators like Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) in the hallway on Wednesday to talk about her race. And the No. 2 Senate Democrat, Dick Durbin of Illinois, said he's actively raising money for her ... Some of her staunchest allies may be the dwindling number of centrist Democrats in the Senate that, like Landrieu, will be a key voting bloc in next year's GOP Congress. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdde03f4892e2931619b811f375fc698fd75c3e420d77195e73 
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GOVERNOR--

-- Texas: The Texas Tribune obtained a pair of memos from strategists for Democrat Wendy Davis, and their prognosis for the campaign was bleak - that disarray and the candidate's liberal posture would virtually ensure a humiliating loss. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cddbf43ea8fca8fac8282fb9986495de196ad22480918b312ce 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cddbf43ea8fca8fac8282fb9986495de196ad22480918b312ce 

CODA-QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It was being spread locally that Jill had thrown me out, that I was living on the Coast with a 24-year-old girlfriend and that divorce papers were pending. That was being spread by one politician in this very area and that was Stacey." - Mississippi Senate candidate Chris McDaniel, accusing state Auditor Stacey Pickering of spreading rumors about marital infidelity during the fractious primary against Sen. Thad Cochran. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2b729837a2873cdd5ce9a3b12821b0ab6f835b74ec9d9c312cde3a3a2dac936a 
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