Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Barber goes to court — The incredible, shrinking Senate runoff — GOP pollsters analyze the election results
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 09:03:43 -0600

By Kyle Cheney

With James Hohmann

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro&#39;s Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day&#39;s most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (
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UNFINISHED BUSINESS - Barber camp goes to court: Attorneys for Democratic Rep. Ron Barber's reelection campaign are filing suit in federal court to force two Arizona counties to tally "133 wrongfully rejected votes" that could narrow the gap in an ultra-close contest in the state's 2nd District. The move, foreshadowed last week during a conference call with Barber's attorney Kevin Hamilton, questions the decision of Pima and Cochise counties to decline to count votes from 133 residents who had problems casting ballots but filed declarations asking that their votes be counted. The complaint was joined by three of those voters - Josh Cohen, Laura Breckenridge and Lea Goodwine-Cesarac - who
 are also represented by Hamilton.

SENATE RUNOFF UPDATE - Courtesy of POLITICO's James Hohmann:

- Ads drying up in Louisiana: The runoff air war is pretty sleepy, as Republican outside groups continue to scale back their buy and national Democrats continue to stay on the sidelines. No one believes that Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu has a shot, and GOP operatives keep saying they have no desire to run up the score. On Monday, the NRSC canceled $204,000 for the final 10 days in Lafayette and New Orleans. That follows their late Friday cancellation of Nov. 27-Dec. 6 time in Baton Rouge and Lake Charles. They've kept Alexandria, and they're helping pay for part of Republican Bill Cassidy's buy. The NRA, meanwhile, canceled another $45K in Lafayette Monday after canceling a quarter-million
 of statewide broadcast Friday.

- Where does that leave us? Republicans are still outspending Democrats three-to-one in the week starting today, Nov. 25 to Dec. 1, including candidate spending. But it's only $1.48 million to $482,000. In the final five days before the Dec. 6 runoff, currently less than $150,000 of time has been reserved. Republicans are slated to have a 1.7 to 1 spending ratio. It's a far cry from the buzz earlier this year about the tens of millions that might have poured into the state if the Louisiana race had decided which party controls the Senate.

- Who is spending? The biggest spender in the coming week is American Crossroads, which is spending $548,000. Cassidy is spending $316,000, and Landrieu's spending $413,000. The only liberal outside group helping Landrieu is the Humane Society Legislative Fund, but it's just a $69,000 investment. Other conservative groups spending are Freedom Partners ($227,000), the Cooperative of American Physicians ($62,000), Ending Spending ($34,000) and the NRSC, jointly with Cassidy ($79,000).

- Landrieu on the air again: Sen.Mary Landrieu is up with a new 30-second TV spot that rips Republican Bill Cassidy for a vote she says sliced $86 million from public school budgets in Louisiana. The ad features Gayle Croxton, a mother from Mandeville, La., who points out that Cassidy is a doctor. "[B]ut he still voted in Congress to cut $86 million from Louisiana schools to pay for a tax break for millionaires like himself," she said. 'I don't know what kind of doctor would do that to my kids." 
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DAYBOOK: Two Republican pollsters will join OnMessage Inc. and NewRepublican.org on Capitol Hill today to dissect post-election polling data form Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina. The 10 a.m. briefing at the Capitol Hill Club is intended to shed "fresh light on how Republicans won the US Senate, what really happened with the gender gap in 2014 and whether Republicans made any progress in becoming more than the party of 'no,' according to an advisory. Pollsters Alex Castellanos and Wes Anderson, from OnMessage, will lead the session. 
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While Terry McAuliffe winces at the Democratic message and Romney's New Hampshire following remains strong, here&#39;s POLITICO&#39;s Morning Score: your daily guide to the 2014 midterms and beyond.

Days until the Louisiana runoff: 12; Days until the Iowa caucuses: 411; Days until the 2016 election: 715

Thanks for joining us. We're eager for your news and feedback. Email us at 
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DEMOCRATIC MESSAGE - "McAuliffe to Dems: Stop being stupid on economy," by Alexander Burns from Petersburg, Va.: "Don't be fooled by the expansive grin, outstretched arms and the booming baritone with which Terry McAuliffe greets throngs of churchgoers here: The governor of Virginia is frustrated ... It's McAuliffe's own party that has him down ... In a 2014 campaign fought against a backdrop of dropping unemployment and record highs for the Dow, he says there's no excuse for Democrats to cede the argument on jobs to Republicans. 'They didn't talk about it!' he exclaims. 'They didn't have a strategy.'

"McAuliffe, a close friend of Hillary and Bill Clinton, calls it an urgent, hair-on-fire priority for Democrats to learn how to tie together an assertive, socially liberal message with close-to-home concerns about opportunity and economic competitiveness." 
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FROM OUR NOTEBOOKS - Markell on demographics, bipartisanship: Delaware Gov. Jack Markell is worried Democrats have become slavishly reliant on demographic shifts to win back the Senate and retain the White House in 2016. Absent a concerted effort to build a positive governing agenda, he said, the party might not have as clear a path to power as it seems. In an interview in D.C.'s Marriott Marquis hotel last week, Markell discussed his own push to highlight bipartisan governing idea emerging from "progressive" municipal leaders and why he's concerned for his party:

- On Democrats counting on demographics to win: "There are those who argue on the political side that all that Democrats have to do is turn out their base voters. I don't really know whether that's true. Without President Obama at the top of the ticket, I don't know what his coalition is going to look like in 2016."

- On the need for a governing agenda: "There's a bit of a battle for the soul of the party ... I think what people are looking for are problem solvers. I think voters don't really care if the candidate is a Democrat or Republican. They're interested in candidates who are interested solving problems."

- O'Malley ties: Markell promoted a program he's helped run along with Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley - whose 2016 presidential ambitions are well-known - called NewDEAL, an effort to highlight the "progressive" officeholders at the state and local level who he says could lay the foundation for a national agenda as well. The program named 16 finalists last week that include mayors, state and county officials and other municipal executives. Among the ideas Markell extols are creative solutions for brownfields redevelopment, early childhood education and measuring the performance of tax credits - a slate of relatively uncontroversial measures that often get buy-in from both parties.

-On Democrats' poor showing in the midterms: "Democrats apparently did not come out to vote. My guess is people don't come out to vote when they feel like the candidates are not talking about things that matter to them."

-On Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam, the newly elected chairman of the RGA: "He's great. He's a really good guy. I like him a lot. Haslam is definitely one of these guys that everybody respects and likes. He does not come across as very political or partisan. He's a problem solver."

QUICK HITS - Political stories from around the web:

- The Center for Responsive Politics examines the recent votes in the House and Senate on a bill authorizing the Keystone Pipeline - and the campaign finance profiles of the members who broke party ranks. 
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- Democrats flopped on Election Day - but it was particularly worse for the party in West Virginia. The New York Times' Derek Willis examines just how bad they had it:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=496237fea683a8005ad6a9feee65c76626aa6cf64dbc49854213ab61486819e5 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=496237fea683a8005ad6a9feee65c76626aa6cf64dbc49854213ab61486819e5 

- CNN reports that a Democratic group is planning to file a formal complaint with the FEC over evidence that Republicans used Twitter to circumvent campaign finance restrictions: 
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- Republicans are winning governorships in Midwestern states at their highest rate since the 1920s, according to the University of Minnesota's Smart Politics blog; 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=496237fea683a8007e06ba1a94c7b1b831ab052a9aa1ce047b030123e483c2ce 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=496237fea683a8007e06ba1a94c7b1b831ab052a9aa1ce047b030123e483c2ce 

CONVENTION WATCH - "DNC: Convention finalist cities are Philly, NYC and Columbus," by POLITICO's James Hohmann: "The Democratic National Convention in 2016 will happen in either Columbus, New York City or Philadelphia. Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz announced the finalist cities on Monday. Phoenix and Birmingham, Ala., didn't make the cut. The decision on the winning city will come early next year. Wasserman Schultz said the convention will be held either the week of July 18, July 25 or Aug. 22." 
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RACE TO 2016 - "N.H. poll: Romney leads GOP field," By Lucy McCalmont: "Former GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney would still lead a pack of possible Republican contenders in New Hampshire if he were to run in 2016, a new poll shows. Romney leads with 30 percent of the vote in a Bloomberg Politics/St. Anselm New Hampshire poll released Monday. It is a healthy 19-point lead over other possible GOP names, including Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who trails at 11 percent. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie received 9 percent, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush won 8 percent, and Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon and conservative commentator, follows with 6 percent." 
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CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY:"The real problem in debates is that you've got all these advisors in there - say this, say that, don't say this, don't say that - and your head gets all clogged up." - Former President George W. Bush, in an interview with radio host Hugh Hewitt. 
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