Subject: David Hale 2015 Global Forecast: Central Banks Remain Dovish in 2015
From: "David Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Dec 2014 16:06:08 -0800 (PST)

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Dear R. Hunter,

The US played by the rules for how to recover from a debt-driven 
recession, and is now set to experience its first year of 3%-plus growth 
since 2005.  However, reforms are either badly needed or just underway 
in many other major advanced and developing economies. This dichotomy 
has important implications for the growth outlooks for each region in 
2015. We explore these issues in-depth in our annual global forecast, 
"Central Banks Remain Dovish in 2015" attached to this email.   Key 
conclusions include:

Global monetary policy continues to display a dovish bias as growth 
weakness persists in many major economies

The sharp decline in oil prices is a major positive shock for the global 
economy

US growth in 2015 should exceed 3% for the first time since 2005

The persistence of weak growth and below-target inflation are forcing 
the ECB to ramp up its expansionary monetary policy measures

The surprise announcement of the next Greek presidential election kicked 
off a year of political uncertainty in Europe

The VAT hike has waylaid the Japanese economy and spurred further 
monetary easing and a new election

The Chinese government is increasingly needing to deploy stimulative 
measures to sustain growth above 7% in 2015

  We also wish you and yours a joyous and festive holiday season. As 
always, we welcome any questions or comments.

With all best wishes,

David Hale 

Chairman

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

546 Lincoln Avenue, 2 nd Floor

Winnetka, Illinois 60093 USA

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