Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: The world according to David Garth — Report: Iowa straw poll likely to survive — Early numbers
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 16 Dec 2014 09:02:11 -0600

By Kyle Cheney

With Tarini Parti and Burgess Everett

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro&#39;s Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day&#39;s most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (
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THE LAST RACE - "Recount over: McSally, Barber await fate Wednesday," by the Arizona Daily Star's Becky Pallack: " Southern Arizonans will find out Wednesday who will represent them in Congressional District 2. A mandatory recount was triggered because the tally separating incumbent Democrat Ron Barber from Martha McSally, his Republican challenger, in the November general election was less than 200 votes. After completing an electronic recount of all the ballots cast for each candidate last week, a hand count of a sample of ballots from five percent of the precincts - the last step in the two-week recount process - was completed Monday morning. In the original count, McSally - a retired
 Air Force colonel - had a 161-vote lead. ... Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett will send the Pima County and Cochise County election results to a Maricopa County Superior Court judge for certification. Judge Katherine Cooper is to make the official announcement at 10 a.m. Wednesday [noon Eastern time]. Neither Barber nor McSally would comment until then." 
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While Thune ducks 2016 talk and Jeb eyes South Carolina, here&#39;s POLITICO&#39;s Morning Score: daily news, notes and essential information for the 2015 and 2016 election cycle.

Days until the 2015 election: 322; Days until the 2016 election: 693

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POSTMORTEM - "Analysis: The world according to Garth," by Todd S. Purdum: "He cut his teeth producing high school sports for local television, and his first political crusade was Adlai Stevenson's sentimental presidential campaign in 1960. He made the on-air advertisements that helped elect politicians as disparate as Senator John Tunney of California and Prime Minister Menachem Begin of Israel. But David Garth knew better than anyone the achievement that would dominate the news of his death - which came Monday, after a long illness at age 84: For 40 of the past 48 years, his clients held the mayoralty of New York City, and the road to City Hall ran straight through his editing bay and his
 trademark no-frills, fact-packed ads.

"He helped to elect the first black mayor of Los Angeles (Tom Bradley), and to defeat the first black mayor of New York (David Dinkins). He worked for Republicans and Democrats alike, and was universally acknowledged as one of the small handful of visionaries most responsible for the dominance of television in modern politics ... The typical Garth ad was a blend of documentary-style footage of his candidates speaking candidly (and sometimes self-deprecatingly), over which he imposed a printed blizzard of facts and figures to buttress their claims." 
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2016 WATCH - Thune: I'm not campaigning for president right now - Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) told state reporters recently that he's "not anxious to be on lists" of potential 2016 contenders. 'We're gonna be up to our eyeballs in Senate work come January ... I'm not doing the things, I guess, that those who are actively campaigning for 2016 are doing, or things that you should be doing. So, I'm focused right now on my Senate work. But like I said - I never thought I'd be doing this in the first place so I don't think you ever rule anything out but I'm certainly not moving forward.'

 - "Carolina on Jeb's mind," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "Jeb Bush's commencement address at the University of South Carolina Monday was mostly devoid of politics. But the appearance alone, in a state that could be pivotal to his 2016 prospects, was the latest sign that the former Florida governor is inching closer to a presidential campaign. Few early primary states, people close to Bush say, will be as important to Bush as South Carolina ... "The first two primary states, Iowa and New Hampshire, present potential challenges to the former governor ... South Carolina, which is traditionally next in the primary lineup, could be friendlier terrain, people close to Bush say. Its Republican
 voting pool is larger and more ideologically diverse, and it has long supported Republican presidential contenders seen as most in line with the GOP establishment." 
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 - "Iowa straw poll likely to live on despite controversy," by the Des Moines Register: "The event is likely to live on almost as-is, despite some resistance - including from the governor ... Two conditions must be met before an August 2015 straw poll in Ames becomes a certainty, Kaufmann said. First, it can&#39;t violate any of the rules the Republican National Committee put in place to protect Iowa&#39;s status as the first-in-the-nation presidential voting state ... Second, the state party can&#39;t lose money on the event, Kaufmann said. Renting space on Iowa State University&#39;s campus is the event&#39;s biggest expense, he said. The final decision will be made on Jan. 10 when the
 state party&#39;s governing committee takes a vote." 
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EARLY NUMBERS - A new poll released by conservative groups Club for Growth PAC, Senate Conservatives Fund and Madison Project shows Utah GOP Sen. Mike Lee with high favorable ratings with all segments of likely primary voters. The poll, conducted Dec. 7-8 by Basswood Research, shows that 76 percent of GOP voters have a favorable opinion of Lee, while only 11 percent of have an unfavorable opinion. Those who identify as "very conservative" view him favorably 87/4, the poll found, and voters who identify as "somewhat conservative" view him favorably 75/10. Primary voters who identify as moderates view Lee less favorably, 53/27. The survey of 600 likely GOP voters has a margin of error of 4
 percent and was conducted by live telephone interviews. 
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CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Shocker! I should&#39;ve known you&#39;d be back here talking to the press.' - President Obama to Sen. Cory Booker on Air Force One, according to a pool report by The New York Times' Peter Baker.

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