Subject: Liquid thinking, Burgundy Style: A contrarian view of the oil price collapse by Albert Bressand
From: "David Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 18 Jan 2015 15:32:16 -0800 (PST)

To view this message in a browser:
http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-0176-1501/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct0_1/1?sid=h3R28y5VC
 
To download [Bressand Oil Price Part 1 Jan 2015.pdf], click on the following link:
http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-0176-1501/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct4_2/1?sid=h3R28y5VC

Dear R. Hunter,

The biggest surprise of 2014 has certainly been the sustained drop in 
oil prices.  My friend and colleague Dr. Albert Bressand is one of the 
world's greatest energy analysts, and he was not at all surprised. 
 Speaking about the current consensus,                                   
                                                                        
           The price story seems both spectacular and routinely 
familiar. At the start of 2015, the consensus scenario goes like this: 
with oil prices at just half their peak value of June 2014 and with the 
forward curve in mild contango (namely with futures markets expecting a 
mere $5 rise in prices by summer 2015), expectations are that prices 
will remain depressed well into 2015 before a reduction in the 
production of US unconventional oil and a pick-up in world demand 
combine to reduce overcapacity and today's rapidly increasing 
inventories. After a year or two of low prices, the pendulum, it is 
assumed, will swing back to sustained high prices, at the latest by the 
end of the decade, as major frontier-oil projects—possibly worth as much 
as one trillion dollars--are postponed or cancelled by financially 
stretched companies. Oil-price volatility will be the name of the game 
once again …   Yet, convincing as this consensual scenario may sound, it 
ignores important potential developments on the productivity and 
geopolitical side.    The cognitive map that can help make sense of the 
deeper transformation in energy markets needs to be grounded in 
political economy and technology, not just economics. 

  I am sure that you will enjoy reading Albert Bressand's 
unconventional, yet impeccably researched and deeply knowledgeable view 
of world energy markets.  What he calls "liquid thinking, Burgundy 
style".  The pdf is attached, but you can also access this report and 
others by Dr Bressand at EconVue.com

http://www.econvue.com

.  

With all best wishes,

David Hale 

Chairman

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

546 Lincoln Avenue, 2 nd Floor

Winnetka, Illinois 60093 USA

847-386-6009 (tel)

847-386-6011 (fax)

[email-masked] 

LinkedIn Profile 

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/david-hale/18/ba8/595

http://davidhaleweb.com

https://www.davidhaleweb.com/

http://whatsnextbook.com 

http://whatsnextbook.com/

Copyright 2014, David Hale Global Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 
This document is not for attribution in any publication, and you should 
not disseminate, distribute or copy this e-mail without the explicit 
written consent of David Hale Global Economics, Inc. Please contact the 
sender if you believe you have received this email in error.  Any views 
or opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not 
necessarily represent those of David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright (c) 2015 David Hale Global Economics
Our address is 546 Lincoln Avenue, 2nd Floor, Winnetka, IL 60093, USA
 
If you do not wish to receive future email, click here:
http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/rif/3037/s-0176-1501/-/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/zout
(You can also send your request to Customer Care at the street address above.