Subject: One Perspective on 2016
From: "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>
To: "Alexander S. Mackler" <[email-masked]>, "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 21 Jan 2015 19:43:24 -0500

Talked to my cousin last night after the SOTU and I thought that he is exactly the kind of Democratic voter that is going to be up for grabs in 2016.   He’s 32, college educated, married and probably thinking about starting a family soon.  He works as a facilities manager at the Marin County Jewish Community Center and probably makes $60K a year which he supplements by working as a soccer coach for three or four youth teams.  He’d love to switch jobs but doesn’t feel there are better options out there.

He was definitely a discontented Obama voter but last night’s speech brought him back in the fold somewhat.  What he said to me is “Obama is a well meaning guy and he’s accomplished a lot but I don’t buy this idea that there is a “new, transformative economy” that we all need to be prepared for.”   He sees the economy and job market of today just being the same as year’s past and doesn’t think green energy or foreign trade or technology is necessarily going to create all of these magical jobs.   He definitely believes that wages have stagnated and his generation won’t be better off than his parents generation.  He believes the rich and connected will have an advantage.  He believes the economy is better but he doesn’t know how it helps him yet.

He would vote for HRC in a general election but I don’t think he would vote at all in a Democratic primary given the current choices and if he did he wouldn’t vote for HRC if there was another choice that spoke to him.  He bought into the Obama hope and change message but now feels jaded and isn’t going to buy into the message a second time.  

Interestingly, he is intrigued by Rand Paul because he is thinking outside the box and likes the semi-isolationist Libertarian foreign policy, the anti-NSA message.  But I don’t think he’d ultimately vote for him either.   I think a candidate who was for marijuana de-criminalization would appeal to him as well.

A successful 2016 candidate who could tap into some of these disenchanted Obama voters without trying to re-sell them a bill of goods has a constituency there for the taking.   And I don’t think Elizabeth Warren is someone that would particularly appeal to him.   Her anti-corporate, anti-big bank message is appealing to people like him but it needs to be more concrete and needs to tell him directly how these policies are going to create jobs and cause wages to grow.  

Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC
1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW
Suite 705
Washington, DC 20007
(202) 333-1880
[email-masked] <x-msg://59/[email-masked]>
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