Subject: How each Democrat rates in new Iowa Poll
From: "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>
To: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>, "Alexander S. Mackler" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 1 Feb 2015 09:11:50 -0500

How each Democrat rates in new Iowa Poll

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2015/01/31/iowa-poll-hillary-clinton-big-lead/22660295/

How each Democrat rates in new Iowa Poll

*1. HILLARY CLINTON, former secretary of state*

Eighty-four percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers view her favorably,
while just 15 percent have negative feelings, the Des Moines
Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows. She's the first choice for 56
percent of likely caucusgoers.

Mark Marturello/Register Illustration

Democrats Derby

Clinton enjoys nearly universal recognition, and she's the favorite even
among poll respondents who say they'd like to see an "anti-establishment"
candidate become president.

The benefits of such a dominant position come in campaign organizing and
fundraising, said Democratic strategist Jeff Link. At this phase, a
campaign is less focused on polling and more focused on developing a
message and a rationale for running, he said.

"The main thing that any candidate needs to do in these early stages is
figure out why they're running and what they'd want to do if elected," Link
said.

*2. ELIZABETH WARREN, U.S. senator from Massachusetts*

Fifty-eight percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers view her favorably,
compared with 11 percent who have negative feelings and 31 percent who are
unsure. She's the first choice for 16 percent of likely caucusgoers.

A draft effort by liberal groups appears to be raising Warren's profile,
and the people who are discovering Warren generally like her, but her
seriousness as a presidential candidate remains unclear. She has
consistently said she is not a candidate for president, even as she's been
coy about whether that could change.

If she did get into the race, Warren would be a viable competitor in Iowa,
Link said.

"She would make for a competitive race," he said. "She would push and
challenge Secretary Clinton organizationally with the grass-roots."

*3. JOE BIDEN, vice president*

Biden is viewed favorably by 78 percent of likely caucus attendees and
unfavorably by 20 percent. He's the first choice for 9 percent of likely
caucusgoers.

Like Clinton, Biden is extremely well-known in Iowa, the result of serving
six years as vice president and running two previous presidential campaigns
here. That alone gives him an edge on many of the potential candidates in
the field.

It's unclear whether Biden will run or if he would challenge Clinton, but
he has made a couple of trips to Iowa in recent months, including one just
days after Clinton reintroduced herself to Iowans at the Harkin Steak Fry
last September.

Mark Marturello/Register Illustration

Democrats Derby

The challenge for Biden will be establishing a niche in a field potentially
dominated by Clinton in the middle and Warren on the left, said University
of Northern Iowa political scientist Chris Larimer.

"For him to have any kind of significant impact, the two in front of him
would have to not be in the race," Larimer said. "That's the only way he
gets any ideological space or momentum in the caucuses."

*4. BERNIE SANDERS, U.S. senator from Vermont*

Not many likely caucusgoers know Sanders well enough to form an opinion: 51
percent say they're not sure about him, while 37 percent view him favorably.

Twelve percent have negative feelings about him. He's the top choice of 5
percent of likely caucusgoers.

Out of all the candidates, Sanders has been the most active in Iowa over
the last several months, speaking at Democratic and progressive events and
meeting privately with labor leaders and others in the party's liberal
base. Those efforts haven't translated to popular support yet, but could
lay a foundation should he formally announce a campaign.

More likely, though, is that Sanders, who identifies himself as a
Democratic socialist, is trying to widen the conversation on liberal
priorities such as income inequality, financial regulation and the social
safety net, Larimer said.

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"He's really just trying to shape the conversation, trying to shape the
agenda and trying to get certain issues talked about," Larimer said. "If
Elizabeth Warren doesn't run, Bernie Sanders is that one candidate who can
get attention on some of those issues."

*5. JIM WEBB, former U.S. senator from Virginia*

Webb is largely unknown to likely Democratic caucusgoers, with 68 percent
saying they're unsure of their opinion about him. Twenty-one percent have a
positive opinion. Three percent call him their top choice for the caucuses.

*6. MARTIN O'MALLEY, former governor of Maryland*

Despite a handful of visits to Iowa through the 2014 campaign season,
O'Malley is a virtually stranger to likely caucus attendees.

Seventy-eight percent say they aren't sure about him and just 13 percent
view him favorably. Just 1 percent of Iowa Poll respondents call him their
first choice for the caucuses.

Eric D. Schwerin
[email-masked]

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