Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Gov. Bob Ehrlich’s advice to Larry Hogan — House Majority PAC gets a new deputy — Burr, McCrory have an edge in early North Carolina poll
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 04 Feb 2015 09:03:52 -0600

By Kyle Cheney

With Sandhya Raman, Gabriel Debenedetti and Steven Shepard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro&#39;s Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day&#39;s most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (
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SCORE EXCLUSIVE - Former Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich has some advice for his successor: Ehrlich, a Republican, has been making noise in New Hampshire as he contemplates a presidential bid. In a phone interview, the one-term Maryland governor - ousted in 2006 by Democrat Martin O'Malley - conveyed some advice to Maryland's new governor, Larry Hogan, another unlikely GOP victor, who Democrats hope will be resigned to the same one-term fate.

- Ehrlich said his best advice is to tune out political waves - like the one that swept him into the governorship in 2002 and out in 2006. "You're always at the mercy of cycles," he said, noting that he won election to the U.S. House in 1994 despite running in a relatively unfriendly district. "My strong advice is you can't control that. You don't control that. It has nothing to do with you." But Maryland governor's have a lot of authority to influence things within state borders, he added. "My advice to Larry is control what you can control, which is a lot."

- On policy, Ehrlich said Hogan should be as "capable and prudent a leader as possible" if he wants to avoid getting the boot in 2018. "That sounds like a cliche, but it's the truth. Exhibit competence. Fix the budget mess he was left," Ehrlich said. "Although a Republican there is always going to be viewed with some suspicion, and certainly people are going to come after him, he's a very competent guy. What won him the race was his sort of moderate independence. I think that there is a real opportunity for him ... to show the state of Maryland that, hey, Republicans can govern prudently, responsibly."

NEW Q POLL -Rubio a distant second to Bush in Fla. primary: As GOP Sen. Marco Rubio plots a potential presidential campaign, he starts the Sunshine State primary well behind former Gov. Jeb Bush, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll out this morning. Bush leads the field with 30 percent, and Rubio places second with just 13 percent. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was third at 10 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who dropped out while the poll was in the field, was at 9 percent. Quinnipiac also surveyed Ohio and Pennsylvania: There's no clear leader in either state, though Ohio Gov. John Kasich benefits the most in the Buckeye State from Romney's decision - at
 least for now. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=998e46394587cb5d7a33b238a8e7630f208e77139833bb3dadd2e73808627f17 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=998e46394587cb5d7a33b238a8e7630f208e77139833bb3dadd2e73808627f17 

FIRST IN SCORE - House Majority PAC taps former Maffei aide: House Majority PAC has tapped a campaign veteran and former Hill aide as its new deputy executive director. Charlie Kelly most recently worked as chief of staff to Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei, who was ousted in November by Republican John Katko. He's also worked stints at the DCCC, DNC and Tim Kaine's gubernatorial PAC. HMP raised more than $40 million last cycle and spent in 37 races, according to a statement from the group.

- Warren allies hire labor leader for New Hampshire office: Former New Hampshire AFL-CIO Political and Legislative Director Kurt Ehrenberg is joining Democracy For America and MoveOn.org's Run Warren Run campaign to urge Sen. Elizabeth Warren to run for president as State Director. Ehrenberg will open the group's first state office in Manchester, and will work with Jake Belanger, formerly of the state Democratic party, Diego Hernandez, formerly of Rep. Pete Aguilar's campaign, and Jennica Simms, formerly of Rep. Elizabeth Esty's campaign.

As Latinos pressure Dems in California, and Republicans start ahead in North Carolina, here&#39;s POLITICO&#39;s Morning Score: daily news, notes and essential information for the 2015 and 2016 election cycles.

Days until the 2015 election: 272; Days until the 2016 election: 643

Thanks for joining us. We're eager for your news and feedback. Email us at 
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kyledcheney .

HILL INTRIGUE - Some stray votes on major legislation: Three House Republicans - all from Democratic-leaning districts - voted against a bill to repeal Obamacare. Rep. Bob Dold of Illinois, Rep. John Katko of New York and Rep. Bruce Poliquin of Maine cast rare GOP votes to preserve the health law. All are top targets for Democrats in 2016. Democrats cited past votes by Dold, who served in the House from 2011-2013, in favor of repealing the law, along with statements by the freshman Poliquin vowing to do the same. 'As we get closer to Election Day, we will see more and more of these chameleon votes, but voters won&#39;t be fooled and we will be consistently reminding them about where these
 lawmakers really stand,' said Josh Schwerin, a spokesman for the DCCC.

- Separately, Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) cast the lone Republican vote against cloture Tuesday on a bill that would fund the Department of Homeland Security but block immigration policies implemented by President Barack Obama. Heller's not up for reelection until 2018, but one colleague up next year, Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) missed the vote.

2016 GOP - "Walker targets Romney donors, Jeb turf," by James Hohmann and Kenneth P. Vogel, with Anna Palmer and Katie Glueck: "Scott Walker is moving to seize on Mitt Romney's withdrawal from the presidential race and show he can compete with Jeb Bush as a top-tier candidate. Sources tell POLITICO that the Wisconsin governor is aggressively courting Romney donors, planning a March fundraising foray into Bush's home turf of Florida and has just hired a top Washington fundraiser. But several of Walker's biggest contributors from the past five years said in interviews over the past week they are not yet committed to his expected 2016 bid, even as they offered praise for the governor and his
 prospects as a White House contender." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=998e46394587cb5d5ce3eb630e2108fac85fc703b3d66d8933b05277d1c74e91 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=998e46394587cb5d5ce3eb630e2108fac85fc703b3d66d8933b05277d1c74e91 

EARLY NUMBERS - Republicans have edge in North Carolina: GOP Gov. Pat McCrory and Sen. Richard Burr hold leads over potential Democratic challengers in 2016 - despite low approval numbers - according to a new poll conducted by Raleigh-based Democratic robopolling firm Public Policy Polling. The governor leads both of his potential opponents: 44-39 percent over Attorney General Roy Cooper and 44-34 over Ken Spaulding. The senator leads five potential Democratic challengers, including former Sen. Kay Hagan, 48 percent to 42 percent. He also holds 7-point leads over Treasurer Janet Cowell and former Rep. Mike McIntyre - and even bigger leads over UNC-system President Tom Ross, 44-35, and
 Secretary of Transportation and former Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx, 47-36. The poll:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=998e46394587cb5d26ba4d76e85ca2f762e801e8007afe37cea97f3e799bb9e4 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=998e46394587cb5d26ba4d76e85ca2f762e801e8007afe37cea97f3e799bb9e4 

-Latino leaders warn of enthusiasm gap without Latino Senate candidate in California:  The California Latino Legislative Caucus released a survey Tuesday suggesting that including a Latino Senate candidate on the ballot would drive up turnout among that community and benefit Democrats across the board. It's the latest salvo from a constituency frustrated that Attorney General Kamala Harris has drawn widespread support from national Democrats, even as prominent potential Latino candidates, like former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, consider entering the race. According to a polling memo, Harris has a "head start" but is vulnerable to a strong challenge. The polling memo: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=998e46394587cb5dfed2ae30b1d954e86e06a955962cc24c79f8984310885dc7 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=998e46394587cb5dfed2ae30b1d954e86e06a955962cc24c79f8984310885dc7 ;the Garin-Hart-Yang memo: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=998e46394587cb5d97ec1bfba094e0795933cff1e2594d2eb4ee6745df0a83be 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=998e46394587cb5d97ec1bfba094e0795933cff1e2594d2eb4ee6745df0a83be 

SCORE FIX - Yesterday's edition attributed a quote in a Portman press release to the senator. It was actually from Portman spokesman Corry Bliss.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY:  "Look honey, look sweetie, there's this guy who's running for office and I think you should contact him." Ana Alliegro, the ex-girlfriend of former GOP Congressman David Rivera, recalling what she described as a scheme to prop up a Democratic primary rival to Joe Garcia.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=998e46394587cb5dc2af8dafa5c7babf53fec35adcd902c9fabbc7ca51b92638 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=998e46394587cb5dc2af8dafa5c7babf53fec35adcd902c9fabbc7ca51b92638 

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