Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Exclusive: Polls put Walker out front in early states — Dems get a candidate in Michigan House district — Kitzhaber could face recall in Oregon
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 10 Feb 2015 09:07:44 -0600

By Kyle Cheney

With James Hohmann, Sandhya Raman and Steven Shepard

SCORE EXCLUSIVE - Poll: Walker surges to the front in early primary/caucus states: New polling data, from Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, puts Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at the front of the GOP pack in four early primary/caucus states. His 21 percent support in Iowa is more than double his next-closest competitor, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who registers 10 percent support. In New Hampshire, Bush holds a statistically insignificant lead over Walker and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie close behind. Walker also leads in Nevada, with 18 percent support, compared to Bush's 12 percent and Paul's 9 percent. And in South Carolina, Walker is out front but
 statistically tied with Sen. Lindsey Graham, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Bush. The memo: 
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 - The fine print: The Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina polls - conducted by TargetPoint Consulting between January 30th and February 3 - included data from 400 likely primary/caucus voters and carry a 5 percentage point margin of error. The New Hampshire poll included 3,000 likely voters and carries a 2 percentage point margin of error. All the polls were conducted by live telephone operators.

GOP BLUE-STATE SENATORS START IN POSITIVE TERRITORY - Q POLL: A new Quinnipiac University poll out today shows GOP Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Rob Portman (Ohio) and Pat Toomey (Pa.) all begin the cycle with more voters saying they should be reelected than say they shouldn't. But some 21 months from Election Day, none of the three is close enough to a majority of the vote to dissuade Democrats, who hope a presidential-year turnout can flip the seats. And if Rubio runs for president instead of reelection, that likely makes his seat an easier target.

The numbers: In Florida, Rubio's approval rating is 47-35, and his reelect is 44-37. Portman, meanwhile, isn't as well known in the Buckeye State. Nearly twice as many voters approve as disapprove (40-21), but 38 percent said they didn't know how they felt about him. Portman's reelect is 37-28, with 35 percent undecided.

Toomey vs. Sestak: 2010 nominee Joe Sestak has been running against Toomey for more than a year now, but he hasn't yet moved the needle. The poll shows Toomey leading the former Democratic congressman, 45-35. Toomey's fav/unfav is 37/21, while Sestak's is 23/12. A whopping 64 percent of voters say they haven't heard enough about the retired admiral to form an opinion. 
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2016 GOP - "Bobby Jindal vs. the world," by POLITICO's James Hohmann: "During a 40-minute interview in Washington late last week, an energized Jindal hit back at his critics on the right and left, dismissing them as elitist hacks who can't stand the idea of an Ivy League-educated, unapologetic conservative. He accused GOP bosses in Washington of trying to sanitize the nomination battle ... He blasted right-leaning writers who've criticized him .. And the 43-year-old governor argued that some Republicans are fine with crony capitalism, as long as their pockets are being lined." 
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 - Only in Pro Score: Jindal on the 2015 Louisiana governor's race. 

NEW RECRUIT - DCCC prospect to challenge Walberg in MI-07: Gretchen Driskell, a Democratic state representative, announced Monday that she will challenge GOP Rep. Tim Walberg in Michigan's 7th Congressional District. National Democrats, who recruited Driskell, cited her as someone who could knock off the Republican incumbent. "Congressman Walberg continues to stack the deck for special interests and the ultra-rich, and Michigan voters are ready for a candidate like Gretchen Driskell who will put the middle class economy first," said Josh Schwerin, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Driskell's announcement was first reported by Michigan Radio.

 - The NRCC quickly threw an elbow at Driskell, describing her "blind ambition" and accusing her of hiking her own pay while opposing popular programs. "Gretchen Driskell's legislative track record shows that she is more interested in appeasing the special interest groups than she is in serving her constituents," said NRCC Spokesman Chris Pack.

As Rubio raids the Romney network and Oregon's governor is on the ropes, here&#39;s POLITICO&#39;s Morning Score: daily news, notes and essential information for the 2015 and 2016 election cycles.

Days until the 2015 election: 266; Days until the 2016 election: 637

Thanks for joining us. We're eager for your news and feedback. Email us at 
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kyledcheney .

POLICY POLITICS - "For policy, Bush shops at Walmart," by POLITICO Pro's Darren Samuelsohn: "It's game on in the 2016 presidential policy wonk sweepstakes. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal has the early lead - in publishing four white papers - with his latest tome out Monday on education reform. Rick Perry's attempt to look smart continued last week in Washington, where the former Texas governor dined with a pair of Middle East specialists - Elliott Abrams and Eliot Cohen - at an expensive steakhouse a couple blocks from the White House. Then there's Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor who has attracted leading GOP heavyweights like Robert Zoellick and has tasked former Walmart CEO Bill Simon
 with hiring dozens of specialists who may need to move to ... wait for it ... Miami." 
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CLINTON WORLD - "Brock resigns from Hillary Clinton PAC," by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel: "David Brock on Monday abruptly resigned from the board of the super PAC Priorities USA Action, revealing rifts that threaten the big-money juggernaut being built to support Hillary Clinton's expected presidential campaign. In a resignation letter obtained by POLITICO, Brock, a close Clinton ally, accused Priorities officials of planting 'an orchestrated political hit job' against his own pro-Clinton groups, American Bridge and Media Matters. 
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STAFFING UP - NYT: Rubio PAC taps former Romney aide in New Hampshire: "Senator Marco Rubio has hired a coveted former aide to Mitt Romney to oversee his political activities in the Northeast and probably in a New Hampshire campaign, signaling that he is serious about a presidential bid. Jim Merrill, who directed both of Mr. Romney's New Hampshire primary bids, is joining Mr. Rubio's political action committee as a senior adviser, a position that would put him at the helm of the Florida senator's campaign in the first-in-the-nation primary state. In landing Mr. Merrill, Mr. Rubio has not only brought on a strategist with deep experience organizing in New Hampshire, but also someone who was
 being pursued by other Republican presidential hopefuls. Mr. Merrill, who is based in Manchester, was sought out by a number of potential candidates, including Jeb Bush." 
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TROUBLE IN OREGON - "Oregon governor facing calls for resignation, state probe," by POLITICO's Jonathan Topaz: "John Kitzhaber ... is staring down multiple recall petitions, and a state ethics commission has opened an inquiry into his activities. And few, if any, major Democratic allies have stepped up to support him. The controversy centers around the private consulting and business work of Cylvia Hayes - Kitzhaber's fiancee and the official first lady of Oregon - and the policies of the governor's administration, where Hayes had also served an unpaid adviser ... Recall organizers will have to procure roughly 220,000 signatures in 90 days. If the effort garners enough verified signatures,
 the governor can either resign or release a statement vowing to stay in office, prompting a recall election.:

 - Oregon does not have a lieutenant governor. Democrat Kate Brown, next in line for gubernatorial succession in her position as secretary of state, would take over as governor if Kitzhaber were to resign or lose a recall bid. The Oregon Constitution mandates that there would be a special gubernatorial election in 2016. 
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CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It's pretty easy to be a 'smart' conservative. ... All you have to do is criticize your own party. ... All of a sudden you're a genius. They say, 'He must be a really smart guy. We need to book him on our shows. We need to write good editorials about him.' It's not hard to do that." - Jindal, to POLITICO's James Hohmann

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