Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Inside Rand’s quest for ballot access — First debate fireworks for Rahm, Chuy — California consultants made bank in 2014
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 17 Mar 2015 08:07:54 -0600

By Kyle Cheney

With Katie Glueck, Sandhya Raman and Steven Shepard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro&#39;s Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day&#39;s most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (
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POPPING THIS MORNING - "McConnell grapples with Rand's plan," by POLITICO's Manu Raju and Campaign Pro's Tarini Parti: "Paul is poised to make an unprecedented move in Kentucky: running for the Senate and the White House at the same time, despite a clear ban in state law preventing him from appearing on the ballot twice. If Paul's presidential bid catches fire, it could put his seat - and Republicans' Senate majority - at risk ... Paul lobbied a reluctant McConnell to back a plan for the Kentucky Republican Party to change the presidential primary system into statewide caucuses after giving the GOP leader assurances he'd help cover the costs of holding the one-time event and that it
 wouldn't interfere with 2015 state races. That change, which still needs to be approved by party officials, would give Paul the flexibility to pursue both offices - but only during the primary. And Democrats are already discussing a lawsuit to block it as early as the filing deadline next January." 
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START YOUR ENGINES - "GOP hopefuls rush toward starting gates," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt and Katie Glueck: "At least three Republican presidential candidates are expected to formally launch their campaigns within the next three or four weeks, due to a mix of calendar dates and deadlines that offer an ideal window for them to officially declare their intentions. Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and Ted Cruz are looking to early April as a target for their campaign announcements. Specific dates haven't been settled on, advisers to three GOP senators said, leaving the possibility that some of the roll-outs could begin as early as the final days of March or stretch into mid-April.

"A fourth candidate, Hillary Clinton, also appears increasingly likely to enter the contest in April. ... Another senator, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, will decide whether to jump into the race by the middle of May, according to an adviser. ... Many Republicans say they don't expect former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush to begin his candidacy until the summer, a calculation rooted in the byzantine nature of campaign finance laws. ... Another early frontrunner, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, has said any presidential decision would come after a spring legislative session - perhaps not until midsummer. ... Carly Fiorina, a former Hewlett-Packard executive, is expected to announce her decision on a
 candidacy in late April or early May. Physician Ben Carson is likely to announce his decision in the first week of May, after his paid public speaking engagements have wrapped up. Advisers to former Texas Gov. Rick Perry say he will make a final decision either late May or early June; aides to former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum pointed to a spring decision, though his timing is less clear." 
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SCORE TIDBIT - Familiar name mulling run for New Hampshire governor: Chris Sununu, the son of a former governor and brother of a former U.S. senator, flirted with a run for governor last cycle but didn't pull the trigger. But the Republican, one of five members of New Hampshire's powerful executive council, tells Score he's once again "very much considering" a bid to take the governor's mansion. And, he says it's "not at all contingent" on whether popular Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan decides to run for Senate, as is widely expected. Sununu has been on every GOP shortlist for governor in recent years.

DCCC HEARTBURN - Democratic field in IL-10 gets crowded: Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering told the Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet on Monday that she's definitely running against GOP Rep. Bob Dold and is seeding her campaign account with about $200,000. That's a headache for national Democrats, who've been encouraging former Rep. Brad Schneider, whom Dold defeated last year, to seek a rematch. And in a sign of how committed Schneider is to another bid, his non-campaign leaked results of a poll conducted last week by Normington, Petts and Associates showing Schneider trouncing Rotering in a potential primary, 56 percent to 12 percent. 
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WHAT TEAM MURPHY IS READING - "Crist won't run for Senate," by POLITICO's Marc Caputo and Kyle Cheney: Charlie Crist was never really in Florida's 2016 Senate race, and on Monday, he made it official: He is staying out ... Crist's announcement helps clear the way for Rep. Patrick Murphy, a fellow Democrat, to run for the post - regardless of whether Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) leaves the seat to seek the presidency. Rubio plans to announce his intentions in April. Murphy - who held a Miami powwow last weekend with supporters - tentatively scheduled an announcement for March 23, but his camp will neither confirm nor deny the date ... Grayson told POLITICO that Crist's decision not to seek the
 Senate 'to some extent does make it more likely that I would run.'" 
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RAHM'S RUNOFF - "Emanuel, Garcia spar in contentious first debate," by the Chicago Tribune's Rick Pearson and Bill Ruthhart: "Rahm Emanuel and Jesus 'Chuy' Garcia engaged in a contentious first debate Monday night, as the mayor accused his challenger of having no plans to deal with the city&#39;s financial problems while Garcia contended Emanuel served only 'the rich and powerful.'Facing a $550 million increase in police and fire pension payments, Emanuel indicated during the debate that he would take a property tax increase off the table. Later, his campaign clarified that a property tax increase is 'the very last resort.' ... The mayor also criticized Garcia for sidestepping specifics on
 money issues by suggesting he would create a post-election task force to recommend proposals to raise city revenue, including taxes ... But Garcia accused Emanuel of not making good on his promise of four years ago to rescue city finances and expressed skepticism over the mayor&#39;s agenda in Springfield. Garcia contended Emanuel was 'out of touch' with the poor and working families." The story: 
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As Fiorina takes care of unfinished business and Jeb struggles with great expectations, here&#39;s POLITICO&#39;s Morning Score: daily news, notes and essential information for the 2015 and 2016 election cycles.

Days until the 2015 election: 231; Days until the 2016 election: 602

Thanks for joining us. We're eager for your news and feedback. Email us at 
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GOOD NEWS - Scott Howell, a prominent GOP political consultant who's been sidelined after a serious heart attack, tweeted Monday: "Back in world of the living. Feeling great. Thanks for all the prayers and encouragement. Expect 100 return." 
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CALIFORNIA CONSULTANT PAYDAY - "Ho-hum California election cycle paid off for political world," by the Sacramento Bee's Jim Miller: "[T]he past two years were anything but ho-hum for the hundreds of consultants, fundraisers, pollsters, media buyers and various campaign operatives that collectively netted almost $300 million from campaign committees for state offices and initiatives, according to a Sacramento Bee review of records filed with the secretary of state last month. The total doesn't include tens of millions in additional campaign dollars that went to TV stations, postage and taxes - or spending on high-profile congressional races such as the face-off between Democratic Rep. Ami
 Bera and Republican Doug Ose ... Some campaign businesses did particularly well during the 2013 and 2014 cycle, state filings show, with net earnings from California campaigns running well into the seven figures, according to state reports. Roseville-based Redwood Pacific Public Affairs, and its sister media-buying company GCW Media Services, were the biggest earners in California, netting about $6.2 million, according to campaign filings. Their main clients were the campaign to defeat Proposition 45, a measure that would have given the state insurance commissioner veto power over health rates had it passed; and Republican gubernatorial candidate Neel Kashkari." 
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CASH RACE - "Jeb Bush's $100 million problem," by POLITICO's Ben White from New York: "Jeb Bush has a big expectations problem when it comes to fundraising for his Right to Rise super PAC. All across Wall Street and the rest of the nation, donors who attended high-dollar Bush events are whispering that the former Florida governor could raise as much as $100 million in the first quarter of the year - and maybe $500 million by June, if not significantly more. Either feat would smash records and sending shockwaves through the rest of the GOP presidential field. Bush advisers are scrambling to drive these lofty expectations way down, saying both publicly and privately that such numbers are
 absurd and that Right to Rise won't come anywhere near them. Other people close to Bush privately use more colorful language to talk down the fundraising figures, noting that Mitt Romney's 'Restore our Future' PAC spent just $43 million for the entire 2012 primary season. One adviser called the $100 million by March 31 figure a 'total fantasy.'" 
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CALMER DAY FOR CLINTON - "Clinton talks peace as she's honored by Irish-Americans," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti from New York: "Hillary Clinton spoke in public here on Monday for the first time since her press conference about her email usage, and this time the tone was more festive than combative. The crowd was, after all, composed of Irish-Americans celebrating Ireland, not just political reporters. The presumptive Democratic presidential front-runner was being inducted into Irish America magazine's Hall of Fame, an event with plenty of Guinness, little overt 2016 talk, and no notable mention of the growing questions over her family foundation's foreign fundraising or her reliance
 on a private email server during her tenure as secretary of State." 
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2016 GOP - Fiorina Senate committee out of the red: Carly Fiorina's 2010 Senate committee has been terminated and all of its debts have been retired, Federal Election Commission filings show. According to FEC documents, Fiorina - a possible presidential candidate - paid off the remaining debt, of about $487,000, herself.That frees her up to focus on fundraising for a possible 2016 bid rather than for settling old campaign debts. Termination of Carly for California, the campaign committee for the former Hewlett-Packard head's failed Senate bid - which was also partially self-funded - was approved last week. Her team received a letter informing them of the approval on Monday.

MESSAGING - Dems pile on Johnson for VA handling: Democrats are pummeling Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson for the latest explanation of his office's handling of a VA whistleblower complaint - the Republican blamed turnover in his office for letting the complaint slip through the cracks. "Wisconsin veterans deserve a Senator whose staff can conduct job interviews and do constituent casework at the same time," said DSCC spokeswoman Sadie Weiner, in a release set to be distributed this morning.

STAFFING UP - Lee gets a new comms director: As Sen. Mike Lee girds for a reelection fight, he's brought on veteran conservative-media journalist Conn Carroll as his new communications director. Carroll, the White House correspondent for Townhall.com and a former Hotliner, will begin at the end of the month. "For years Conn has worked at the intersection of policy, politics, and communications, and his extensive experience will make him an invaluable addition to my team," Lee said in a statement. Carroll has also worked at the Washington Examiner, the Heritage Foundation, National Journal and the House Government Reform committee.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Would you be here asking me a question if I didn&#39;t jump out of an airplane today?' - Former Kentucky Supreme Court Justice Will T. Scott, running fourth in the GOP gubernatorial primary polls, on why he went skydiving from 3,500 feet Monday. Per the AP: 
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