Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Fuels America: Ranking the 2016 Senate races — After Reid: A look at the emerging field — Rubio ready to announce
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 30 Mar 2015 08:08:06 -0600

By Kyle Cheney

With Elena Schneider and Theodoric Meyer

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro&#39;s Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day&#39;s most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b12d730907851fd085f35c97e7c360da44e76625ddd4775a2be 
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2016 SENATE RANKINGS - Campaign Pro's look at the top 15 Senate seats likely to switch parties: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b12bca2cf051a72e7732c4e0a382deeb330be368f9a85c5d281 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b1237e56bc4f3cac318bb95088abd107c167da7c0061263503f 

DEMS GET THEIR TOP RECRUIT IN ILLINOIS - Rep. Tammy Duckworth to announce Kirk challenge this A.M.: Rep. Tammy Duckworth is preparing to announce a bid for Senate today, the same day she has a scheduled fundraiser with top supporters, who we&#39;re told she'd refund their contributions if she opted against challenge to GOP incumbent Sen. Mark Kirk. Duckworth is the instant favorite in a contest that leans heavily in Democrats' favor - thanks in no small part to Illinois' strong Democratic lean in presidential years. There's still a long line of Democratic House members considering a bid, so Duckworth may face a tough primary.

NEVADA TAKEAWAYS - Nearly all of the early machinations in the Nevada Senate race have been among Democrats. Outgoing Sen. Harry Reid quickly signaled his preferred successor, former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, an aggressive move that seemed to suggest there wouldn't be much of a contest within the party. But Rep. Dina Titus, another Reid ally, hinted Friday that she's not necessarily going to go quietly, and in subsequent comments, Reid insisted he's not trying to stamp out a potential primary if one develops. That would be counter to the way Democrats have operated under Reid's leadership. After the Democratic leader announced his retirement, he also cleared the way for Sen.
 Chuck Schumer to succeed him and boasted of his continuing ability to have his way. If Titus runs despite Reid's early blessing for another Nevada Democrat, it would be surprising.

- Similarly, it's hard to see Reid's overwhelming praise for Gov. Brian Sandoval as anything other than a tacit understanding that the second-term Republican won't be running for Senate. Though Republicans have expressed clear hope that Sandoval would run - and be the immediate frontrunner for the seat - Sandoval has signaled a bid is unlikely. On the GOP side, there was little movement over the weekend, despite more than half a dozen names considered viable: former Lt.Gov. Brian Krolicki, current Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison, Attorney General Adam Laxalt, State Sen. Michael Roberson, former Sandoval chief of staff Heidi Gansert and Reps. Joe Heck and Cresent Hardy.

More Reid aftermath:

- "Reid: 'I'm going to help' Cortez Masto in Nevada race," by Campaign Pro's Kyle Cheney:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b129a586f96ebf2437813a3e793746de5dc4cc540454b271c5e 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b129a586f96ebf2437813a3e793746de5dc4cc540454b271c5e 

- "Reid's legacy: Dogged and smarter than you think," by POLITICO's John Bresnahan: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b121c8ab6bd6621f60110caec36f10c02988cee5a3118f54da9 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b121c8ab6bd6621f60110caec36f10c02988cee5a3118f54da9 

HERE COMES RUBIO - "Rubio looks to April 13 Miami launch," by Alex Isenstadt and Marc Caputo: "Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is strongly considering launching his presidential campaign April 13 at the Freedom Tower, a historic Miami landmark ... From its name to its history - it once served as a U.S. clearinghouse for Cuban exiles fleeing Fidel Castro - Miami's Mediterranean-style Freedom Tower underscores the themes of Rubio's political career and his likely campaign ... However, the Miami Heat plays against the Orlando Magic that evening at the American Airlines Arena, which sits right across Biscayne Boulevard - raising the prospect of a traffic nightmare. And the Freedom Tower hasn't yet
 been secured by Rubio's Washington-based team, which will inspect it this week to see if it's the right venue. They're also considering other locations, which have yet to surface publicly." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b1213514761bb89c3972982aa5df76cdd97d4db411bfb7740b4 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b1213514761bb89c3972982aa5df76cdd97d4db411bfb7740b4 

As one House race heats up in Nevada and a potential primary in Illinois cools down, here&#39;s POLITICO&#39;s Morning Score: daily news, notes and essential information for the 2015 and 2016 election cycles.

Days until the 2015 election: 218; Days until the 2016 election: 589

Thanks for joining us. We're eager for your news and feedback. Email us at 
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http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b123015fc0a9952522c0b780af3351ba31552870416a5e1d1bd 
kyledcheney .

** A message from Fuels America: Ethanol tax breaks expired in 2012. Oil company tax breaks started during the Wilson Administration and continue without end. Washington has been picking oil as a "winner" for more than a century. The Renewable Fuel Standard levels the playing field so that homegrown, American fuels have access to the market. Learn more: 
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RECRUITMENT - The latest from the emerging 2016 field:

- So much for Mitch: Former Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu heaped praise on Democrat John Bel Edwards, a subtle signal that her brother, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, is unlikely to run for governor this year, according to the Times Picayune. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b126b26c860542754d5bd512f67231736c7451effff2a16eb5e 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b126b26c860542754d5bd512f67231736c7451effff2a16eb5e 

- Nevada Democratic state Sen. Ruben Kihuen announced Saturday that he will run against Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy for Nevada's 4th District, a high-priority seat for Democrats hoping to make gains in the House next year. The Reno Gazette-Journal Kihuen had floated Kihuen as a possible replacement for Rep. Dina Titus' safer Democratic seat if Titus runs for Reid's Senate seat. Kihuen was a candidate in NV-01 in 2012 before deferring to Titus, a former congresswoman who lost in the 2010 GOP wave but decided to run after the state gained an additional congressional seat in reapportionment. Kihuen might not have the field to himself: 2014 lieutenant governor candidate Lucy Flores said
 earlier this month she was considering the race.

- Former Rep. Bobby Schilling (R-Ill.) endorsed state Sen. Darin LaHood&#39;s bid to replace Aaron Schock Saturday, ending the possibility that Schilling could make a run for the seat himself and removing another potential roadblock to LaHood&#39;s candidacy. Schilling won election in 2010 in Illinois&#39; 17th District, only to lose to Democrat Cheri Bustos in 2012. The 17th District included a small portion of Schock&#39;s district - the 18th - before redistricting took effect in 2012. Schilling lost a bid to regain his seat in 2014. State Rep. Dan Brady, former state Rep. Jil Tracy and Bloomington homebuilder Ed Brady have also considered running. A special election will be held within
 120 of Schock&#39;s resignation, which is effective March 31.

FIRST IN SCORE - A Public Opinion Strategies poll of 25 swing Congressional districts found voters significantly downbeat about the direction of the country, disapproving of President Barack Obama's job performance and leaning toward Republicans in 2016. In a generic ballot test in these districts, Republicans hold a 39-33 edge. The districts polled include all 25 of the districts considered tossups or leans by the Cook Political Report (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b128af9b405592c4eb5e44290a0ff6727b84b335707a16c9281 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b128af9b405592c4eb5e44290a0ff6727b84b335707a16c9281 ). The survey of 600 registered voters, conducted from Feb. 10 to Feb. 12, carries a 4 percentage point margin of error.

- The poll was conducted for Human Rights First, an advocacy group seeking reforms to the nation's asylum and refugee policies, and it found that significant numbers of residents in the targeted districts would support broad changes to the system.

2016 GOP - "Walker limits media availability in wake of slip ups," by Dylan Byers: "Last month, Scott Walker seemed readily available to any reporter who had a question for him. He was basking in the limelight, holding media scrums and granting impromptu interviews. But in the wake of a few controversial, headline-grabbing quotes about evolution and President Obama&#39;s religion, the Wisconsin governor and likely Republican presidential candidate has put brakes on his media availability, reporters who follow him say. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b12ac096ad3fbf785a10d89a2d716e3ff1df2b4547650e3bd2d 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b12ac096ad3fbf785a10d89a2d716e3ff1df2b4547650e3bd2d 

- "Cruz vows to shun negative campaigning," by POLITICO Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is swearing off negative campaigning as he begins his run for the White House. 'There may be other candidates who chose to throw rocks in my direction,' the GOP presidential hopeful said in an interview aired Sunday on CNN's 'State of the Union.' "I'm not going to engage in the personal mudslinging, in the negative attacks on people's character.' 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b12708e5571830cba6d9e28c1736d445015b9c1555fe2cf2286 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b12708e5571830cba6d9e28c1736d445015b9c1555fe2cf2286 

- "The crushing defeat that shaped Scott Walker," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "As he introduces himself to GOP primary voters nationwide, Scott Walker points to his long list of election wins in the swing state of Wisconsin - 11, to be exact. Yet it's a single defeat, Republicans back home say, that reveals the most about his political character. He doesn't talk about the race on the campaign trail. But the hard-earned lessons from his failed, slapdash run for governor in 2006 have shaped Walker's career since, putting him on a trajectory that has led him to become one of the early front-runners for the 2016 GOP nomination." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b126b2d0fd296f3b7a57cc3de20f1e3cba085a82d0036f11fe0 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b126b2d0fd296f3b7a57cc3de20f1e3cba085a82d0036f11fe0 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "This is way more stressful than elections." - Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.), a Duke alum, tweeting during the second half of Sunday's NCAA Tournament regional final. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b12a4c565b33810afcba42b8a1595ddd2d84f9d6d851ea714ff 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b12a4c565b33810afcba42b8a1595ddd2d84f9d6d851ea714ff 

** A message from Fuels America: The Renewable Fuel Standard is providing American consumers with growing access to a range of homegrown, renewable fuel options that cost less than regular gasoline while delivering higher octane and better engine performance. Without the RFS, oil companies - who control the retail fueling infrastructure through their supplier contracts - would have a free hand to block these less expensive fuels from coming to the market.

No one is asking Congress to 'pick winners and losers.' What America's renewable fuel producers are asking for, however, is a chance to make our product available to consumers. Learn more: 
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http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aa65f8986a812b12eebcecb49ede2e7cb0153292906318e5e966ef31e2c27e50  **

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