Subject: Fwd: State of the Race: White House 2016
From: <[email-masked]>
To: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>, "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>, "Beau Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 2 Apr 2015 13:55:51 -0400

Stated differently, JRB has the 2nd-highest favorables of anyone tested. 

ASM

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Anzalone Liszt Grove Research <[email-masked]>
> Date: April 2, 2015 at 11:51:25 AM EDT
> To: [email-masked]
> Subject: State of the Race: White House 2016
> Reply-To: [email-masked]
> 
> 
>       
>                                  
>  
> April 2, 2015
> Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
> National Polling Summary
> _______________________________________________________________   
>  
> Friends,
>  
> Below you will find the Anzalone Liszt Grove Research National Polling Summary, which provides a pollster's take on data and trends that affect political campaigns.
>  
> This week we take a look at voter opinion on potential 2016 presidential candidates. 
>  
> Following our analysis are additional news items and data we thought you'd enjoy.
>  
> John Anzalone, Jeff Liszt, and Lisa Grove
>  
> http://www.algpolling.com/ 
> http://twitter.com/AnzaloneLiszt 
> ________________________________________________________________
> With the launch of Ted Cruz's campaign last week, the start of the 2016 Presidential Election Season is officially here.  Cruz is the first on either side of the aisle to announce, and his speech at Liberty University hit all the conservative tenets - from guns to taxes to border security, though a national poll conducted a few days before the announcement shows him with just 4% of the vote for the Republican nomination.
>  
> Although the Republican primary looks like it will be crowded and wide open, the Democratic nomination is currently shaping up to be just the opposite. While the Clinton camp is making it clear that they will take nothing for granted if she runs this cycle, public polling shows Hillary Clinton in a strong position and enjoying better ratings with both primary and general election voters than she did at this point in the 2008 election cycle.
>  
> Clinton is the best known and most liked
>  
> After more than twenty years in the national spotlight, Hillary Clinton has near universal name recognition - most public polls show more than 90% of the public can identify her. However, she's not only the best known contender, she's also the most liked on either side of the aisle. Clinton's favorability was asked in three different nationwide telephone surveys in March, and in each, Americans viewed her more favorably than unfavorably, by a margin of 8-11 points. The CNN/ORC poll finds that 97% of adults can identify her, and 53% view her favorably (compared to 44% who see her unfavorably). 
>  
> Conservative news sources have been touting a recent CBS News poll that found her with a net-negative favorability (26% favorable / 37% not favorable / 36% no opinion), but a poll that states more than a third of people have no opinion on her is a clear outlier. Unlike other polls, the CBS poll presented respondents with both an "undecided" and "haven't heard enough" option, thus driving up the total "no opinion" percentage. 
>  
> On the other hand, several public polls show her possible Republican opponents faring worse. While Jeb Bush is also fairly well known (78% name ID), less than a third of Americans view him favorably (31% favorable / 47% unfavorable, net -16) in the CNN/ORC poll. Rand Paul, Scott Walker, and Marco Rubio receive more mixed views (net rating +1 for Paul, +0 for Walker, and -1 for Rubio) but are also less well known (61% name ID for Paul, 51% for Rubio and 42% for Walker). And a Gallup poll finds Ted Cruz has neither high name recognition (50%) nor a net favorable rating (net rating -6). 
>  
>  
> CNN/ORC and Gallup polling
>  
> Chris Christie is also underwater with the public - more people view him unfavorably than favorably (25% favorable / 44% unfavorable, net -19), as are the Ricks:  Rick Perry (net rating of -7) and Rick Santorum (-7). The only Republican contender to receive a similar net rating to Clinton is Ben Carson (22% favorable / 14% unfavorable, net +8), and only slightly more than a third (36%) of the public can identify him.
>  
> While other Democratic politicians aren't seen as negatively as many of the Republicans are, they also don't enjoy the popularity that Clinton does. Joe Biden, while well known (89% name ID) has a negative net favorability rating, with 43% viewing him favorably and 46% viewing him unfavorably. The rest of the potential contenders have neither the name ID nor popularity, whether it is Elizabeth Warren (41% name ID, net +3 rating), Bernie Sanders (24% name ID, net +0 rating), or Jim Webb (24% name ID, net -2 rating).
>  
> Clinton is seen as a candidate of the future, while Bush is seen as one of the past
>  
> What's more, despite her near universal name recognition, Clinton is viewed as a candidate of the future. A majority (50%) of adults in a CNN/ORC poll said Hillary Clinton "represents the future," compared to a majority who viewed Chris Christie (50%), Jeb Bush (64%) and Joe Biden (64%) as candidates who "represent the past." 
>  
> She enjoys a high level of popularity from her base and from women
>  
> Contrary to reports of Clinton fatigue, Democrats are excited about the prospect of another Clinton presidency. She enjoys a higher net favorability (+66) among Democrats now than she did at this point in the 2008 election cycle (+58). And when asked if Clinton was someone they would be proud to have as president, 89% of Democrats and 83% of liberals agreed they would be proud to have her as president.
>  
> Clinton also enjoys a high level of support from women, even above and beyond the traditional gender gap for Democratic politicians (while not sacrificing support among men). Clinton has a net favorability of +24 among women (56% favorable / 32% unfavorable), compared to an almost even 44% favorable / 45% unfavorable among men. In comparison, President Obama has a net favorability of +11 among women and +1 among men.  
>  
> Unlike this time in 2007, she is well ahead in primary polling
>  
> While the Republican field has a dozen contenders all polling within a few points of each other, the Democratic field currently has a clear frontrunner. In the latest poll from CNN/ORC, Clinton (62%) leads her two nearest hypothetical competitors, Joe Biden (15%) and Elizabeth Warren (10%), by 47 and 52 points, respectively.  Viewed another way, 81% of Democrats said they would consider voting for Clinton in the primary, while only one in ten said they would not. The best known Republican candidate, Jeb Bush, on the other hand, had only 51% say they would consider voting for him, and more than a quarter (27%) say they would not. 
>  
>   
>  
> What's more, her support among Democratic primary voters is much stronger now than it was at this time in 2007. Nationwide polls conducted in March 2007 by Time, NBC/Wall Street Journal, Gallup, and CNN, show Clinton's lead over Obama between 7 and 15 points (Clinton 37% / Obama 22% in her widest lead). Her performance in early primary states was even closer. In March 2007, Clinton was trailing Edwards and only narrowly ahead of Obama in Iowa (Edwards 30% / Clinton 24% / Obama 22%). In New Hampshire, she led by single digits (Clinton 27% / Edwards 21% / Obama 20%). In contrast, the most recent polling shows her not only leading by over 40 points among Democratic primary voters nationally, but also in Iowa (42-point lead) and in New Hampshire (41-point lead).
>  
> Looking ahead, she is leading in general election matchups as well
>  
> In the general election, Clinton has a sizable lead against a host of possible Republican candidates. She has a 14-point lead against the only declared candidate, Ted Cruz (53% Clinton / 39% Cruz) as well as double-digit leads against Jeb Bush (+15), Scott Walker (+15) and Rand Paul (+11).  In contrast, in March 2007, Clinton was losing to McCain by 6 points (42% Clinton / 48% McCain). 
>  
> 
> CNN/ORC and Marist polling
> 
> OTHER NEWS FROM THE POLLING AND POLITICAL WORLD
>  
> The Hill lists 2016's top 10 most vulnerable Senators
>  
> PolitiFact dissects what it means to be a "natural-born" citizen
>  
> Vox shows us where Powerball is the most popular
>  
> The Public Religion Research Institute surveyed millennials on attitudes towards sexuality and reproductive health
>  
> Doug Sosnik predicts that we are in a hinge moment between historical periods
>  
> Gallup ranks San Francisco as the metro area with the highest percentage of LGBT individuals
>  
> Kaiser Family Foundation finds Obamacare at its most popular since the fall of 2012
>  
> Oregon becomes the first state to adopt automatic voter registration 
>  
> The American Gaming Association estimates 70 million people filled out a March Madness bracket this year
>  
> Pew Research takes a look at the partisan composition of state legislatures
>  
> Missed a past newsletter? They can be found on our website,  HERE!
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