Subject: Re: Upshot: Dems May Know What Party They're In
From: "Joshua Alcorn" <[email-masked]>
To: "Alexander S. Mackler" <[email-masked]>
Cc: "Beau Biden" <[email-masked]>, "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>, "Ted Kaufman" <[email-masked]>, "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>, "Molly Magarik" <[email-masked]>, "Acdonilon" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 13 Apr 2015 09:48:23 -0400

Here’s a pessimistic article about our great state: http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21647642-living-standards-drop-americas-business-capital-first-state-comes-last <http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21647642-living-standards-drop-americas-business-capital-first-state-comes-last>

Delaware’s economy
The First State comes last

Living standards drop in America’s business capital

Apr 4th 2015 | WILMINGTON | From the print edition <http://www.economist.com/printedition/2015-04-04>

WAGE growth in America has been measly for years, but since the recession one state has fared particularly badly: Delaware, an east-coast tax haven. From 2009 to 2014, it was the only state in which hourly and weekly earnings dropped in cash terms (see chart).

At first glance, this is puzzling. Unemployment in Delaware, at 4.8%, is well below the national average; many would expect such a tight labour market to result in rising wages. Moreover, the state is famously kind to business. Thanks to benign company laws and low taxes, there are more businesses registered in Delaware than there are people. More than 50% of all publicly traded firms in America have chosen the state as their legal home. Last year roughly 170,000 business entities formed there, a new record. A quarter of Delawareans work in finance or business services, a higher proportion than in any other state. Such vocations typically pay well.

In this section
The present past
 <http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21647625-150-years-after-end-civil-war-states-were-once-confederate-remain>
They wish they were in Dixie
 <http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21647629-why-americans-keep-heading-way-they-wish-they-were-dixie>
The First State comes last
Too many fish in the sea
 <http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21647649-dating-market-having-fewer-choices-can-be-more-efficient-too-many-fish-sea>
Religious freedom v gay rights
 <http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21647650-debate-which-both-sides-exaggerate-threats-they-face-religious-freedom-v-gay>
Unbroken Reid
 <http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21647643-one-bareknuckle-leader-may-be-replaced-another-unbroken-reid>
Why the gun lobby is winning
 <http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21647627-prevent-gun-deaths-politicians-offermore-guns-why-gun-lobby-winning>
Reprints
 <http://www.economist.com/rights>
Related topics
United States
 <http://www.economist.com/topics/united-states>
Delaware
 <http://www.economist.com/topics/delaware>
But dig deeper, and problems appear. In recent years Delaware’s business-services industry has not looked so hot. In company litigation, its courts have lost out to rivals, particularly federal ones. Excessive litigation encourages companies to move. And Wilmington, the largest city in the state, is losing its appeal as a place to do business because of its high crime rate. Downtown is eerily quiet, even on business days. At the heavily policed railway station, a helpful video shows what to do if an armed madman launches an attack.

All this has taken a toll. The number of full-blown public and private corporations registered in Delaware is 11% lower than it was in 2000. (The number of smaller outfits has shot up, but these generate less juicy work.) Small wonder, then, that over the same period employment in Delaware’s professional and business-services sector has dropped by a tenth. Wages in that industry have fallen for the past few years. They have also tumbled in the financial sector, which has struggled recently with low profits. Delaware’s moneymen are earning 25% less per hour than they did before the financial crisis.

Other parts of the economy are suffering, too. Delaware’s manufacturing sector is one. Two car plants, which once employed 10,000 workers between them, have gone: Chrysler’s in 2008 and General Motors’ in 2009. Since the recession ended, manufacturing jobs (which typically pay well) have continued to wither in the state, despite a nationwide recovery. Delaware’s industrial electricity prices, which are 25% higher than the American average, partly explain the lacklustre performance. John Stapleford of the Caesar Rodney Institute, a libertarian think-tank near Wilmington, laments the absence of a “right-to-work” law (which would prevent workers from being forced to join a union as a condition of employment). Without one, says Mr Stapleford, Delaware is an unattractive place to locate a factory: manufacturing jobs go elsewhere.

Delaware’s low-wage sectors, though, have bloomed. Since 2010 the state’s casinos have been allowed to host “table games”, such as blackjack. That, says George Sharpley of the Delaware Department of Labour, partly explains why employment in the leisure and hospitality sector has since grown by 7%.

Retirees are also playing a role, says Gus Faucher of PNC, a bank. Many move to Delaware for its low taxes on retirement income. From 2010 to 2013 the share of the state’s population over 65 grew by 7%, well above the American average, and Delaware is forecast to be one of the fastest-ageing states in the next few decades. Working for gamblers and pensioners pays poorly: hourly wages in leisure and hospitality are half the state average. To paraphrase the state song, some wonder if the sun really is shining over their beloved Delaware.

Joshua Alcorn
302/295.8340 (office)
302/598.1885 (cell)
[email-masked]

> On Apr 11, 2015, at 10:56 AM, Alexander S. Mackler <[email-masked]> wrote:
> 
> interesting numbers, and good news.
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/11/upshot/democrats-keep-lead-in-party-identification.html?ref=politics&_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1 <http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/11/upshot/democrats-keep-lead-in-party-identification.html?ref=politics&_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1>
> Political Calculus
> 
> Democrats Keep Lead in Party Identification
> 
> APRIL 10, 2015
> 
>  <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/c/nate_cohn/index.html>Nate Cohn <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/c/nate_cohn/index.html>
> 
> The party identification of American voters was one of the most hotly debated topics among analysts before the 2012 presidential election. Many Republicans thought there were roughly equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans, and so doubted polls showing President Obama with the lead. In the end, the polls were right. This week, a <http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/> Pew Research report <http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/> based on about 25,000 interviews in 2014 took a new measure of partisanship. Here are the most interesting findings:
> 
> Despite the president’s sagging approval ratings in 2014 and the strong Republican performance in the midterm elections, the Democrats retain a nine-point advantage among adult Americans who lean toward a party identification, 48 percent to 39 percent.
> 
> The tally is nearly unchanged from the 10-point Democratic advantage in 2012, when President Obama won re-election.
> 
> The stability of the Democratic advantage in party identification suggests that disappointment with Mr. Obama’s performance hasn’t caused traditionally Democratic voters to reassess their partisanship. That’s very different from the reaction of Republicans in the middle part of the last decade, when dissatisfaction with the Bush administration allowed Democrats to build the wide advantage that persists today.
> 
> Non-Hispanic whites lean Republican by a nine-point margin, one of the party’s largest advantages among white voters over the last 20 years. But the advantage is about the same as in 2004, when Republicans had an eight-point advantage, and 2012, when it was a seven-point advantage.
> 
> Notably, there isn’t much evidence of a trend against Democrats. Since 2010, the Republican advantage has held between seven and 11 points.
> 
> The Democrats have faced equal or larger deficits.
> 
> Perhaps because of the growing Democratic affinity for liberal cultural politics, Republicans have made steady gains among white evangelical and Catholic voters over the last decade. Since 2004, the Republican advantage among white evangelicals has grown by 12 points, from 34 to 46 points. Over all, 68 percent of white evangelicals lean Republican, compared with just 22 percent leaning Democratic.
> 
> The traditional Democratic advantage among white Catholics — who were equally likely to lean Republican or Democratic in 2004 — has turned into a modest and persistent Republican advantage for five straight years, including a nine-point edge in 2014.
> 
> Political scientists delight in debating about the political leanings of the young voters who reached voting age after Mr. Obama’s 2008 election. One theory has held that younger millennials will be significantly more Republican than older millennials, since their politics would be defined by the Obama years, not by opposition to the Bush administration. Others have argued that Democratic strength among younger voters is the result of cultural and demographic changes, not the national political conditions of the end of the last decade.
> 
> The Pew data, which includes 2,693 voters who are 18 to 25, suggests that the youngest millennials are about as Democratic as older millennials. The youngest millennials lean Democratic by 15 points; older millennials lean Democratic by 17 points. Fifty-one percent of the youngest millennials lean Democratic, compared with 50 percent of older millennials.
> 
> There is, however, one intriguing weak spot for Democrats among the youngest millennials: minorities. While young whites are far more Democratic than their elders, the youngest nonwhite adults tend to be somewhat more Republican.
> 
> According to the Pew data, 17 percent of 18- to 25-year-old black adults lean Republican — far more than any other age group among blacks. The sample is small — just 354 black adults between the ages of 18 and 25 were queried — but it is not the only piece of evidence supporting this possibility. In the 2012 exit polls, just 80 percent of black men 18 to 29 supported Mr. Obama, although the number of respondents was quite low.
> 
> The Pew data isn’t enough to definitively state that Republicans fare better among the youngest nonwhite voters, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
> 
> The Upshot <http://www.nytimes.com/upshot/> provides news, analysis and graphics about politics, policy and everyday life. Follow us on Facebook <https://www.facebook.com/upshot> and Twitter <http://twitter.com/UpshotNYT>. Sign up for our weekly newsletter. <http://www.nytimes.com/newsletters/upshot/>
> 
> -- 
> 
> Alexander Snyder Mackler
> (302) 598-8678