Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Grayson unglued — Polls struggle with sheer number of GOP candidates
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 14 May 2015 08:02:53 -0600

By Steven Shepard

With Kevin Robillard, Theodoric Meyer and Elena Schneider

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro&#39;s Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day&#39;s most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (
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THINGS FALL APART - "Grayson erupts at Senate bid looms," by POLITICO's Marc Caputo and Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "As he faces the pressures of a potential Senate bid in the nation's biggest swing state, Florida Rep. Alan Grayson has hurled angry expletives at reporters and described his likely rival in crude terms during a tense conversation with the head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. For all of his outbursts, Grayson has been inventive with his slurs. On Wednesday, he bizarrely accused one reporter of being a "sh--ing robot" - a phrase that's sure to become part of his legacy of incendiary remarks, which include branding a lobbyist a 'K Street whore,' likening the
 Tea Party to the Ku Klux Klan and accusing a Christian conservative opponent of being a member of the Taliban. Grayson, who wouldn't comment on his tirades, didn't dispute participating in a difficult phone call a few weeks previously with DSCC Chair Jon Tester, who informed the representative that the committee would likely soon endorse Rep. Patrick Murphy. Grayson denied he directly swore at Tester - as two sources alleged - but he wouldn't comment on what he said. 'What's the deal here? You publish whatever colorful lies people toss your way, for their own obvious political purposes?' Grayson asked via text message." 
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COMER'S WIFE BECOMES VALUABLE SURROGATE - As Kentucky GOP gubernatorial candidate James Comer seeks to overcome allegations he assaulted an ex-girlfriend in college, his campaign has put his wife, T.J., front and center in the final days of the campaign. Two data points:

- T.J. Comer is the face of the campaign's new, FP1 Strategies-produced TV ad, touting her husband's "faith in God, blue-collar roots, conservative principles and commitment to making a difference." 
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- She also joined two dozen GOP officials for a rally at the state capital on Wednesday, the Courier-Journal reports, though the candidate himself wasn't there. Interestingly, Hal Heiner's campaign lashed out, noting that the Comer camp said they weren't going to talk about the abuse allegations anymore. 'Monday night, Jamie Comer said he was moving past the allegations of domestic violence to talk about issues. It only took two days for his campaign to bring the allegations up again and to go back to negative attacks - this time by a group of surrogates,' Heiner spokesman Doug Alexander said in a statement to the paper. 'One has to wonder why he keeps bringing these allegations up.' 
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As Kirk goes where no candidate has yet gone and pollsters grapple with all the Republican presidential candidates, here&#39;s Campaign Pro's Morning Score: daily news, notes and essential information for the 2015 and 2016 election cycles.

Days until the 2015 election: 173; Days until the 2016 election: 544.

Thanks for joining us. Apologies to fans of the Washington Capitals (or, as Mr. Tony would call them, the "choking dogs"), but I'm excited my Rangers are headed to the Conference Finals. Email me at 
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POLITICO_Steve .

AIR KIRK - Illinois senator the first 2016 incumbent on the airwaves: Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk is poised to be the first incumbent senator on the airwaves in the 2016 election cycle, with the Republican planning to launch a 60-second advertisement today. A source tracking ad buys said Kirk has purchased $161,000 in cable airtime beginning on Thursday and running for three weeks. Additionally, Kirk's campaign has purchased $77,000 for a one-week flight in Chicago, and $6,000 in Champaign over the same time period. The total buy so far is just under $250,000. Kirk had $2.8 million in cash on hand at the end of the first quarter.

- The Chicago Tribune reported that the spot "uses his recovery from a January 2012 stroke as a metaphor for his work for Illinois constituents." 
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#AAPOR PREP- "Pollsters struggle to assess 19 GOP contenders," by Campaign Pro's Steve Shepard: "[W]hen GOP officials gather in Arizona this week to tackle the vexing question of how to decide which candidates are allowed to participate in party-sanctioned debates, they won't be able to easily fall back on the most logical way to winnow the field: polling. That only compounds the stresses on the Republican National Committee, which is determined to avoid the circus-like atmosphere of some of the party's 2012 debates. ... But the sheer number of candidates who are likely to enter the race makes using an arbitrary polling threshold - say, 5 percent in national or early-state surveys - even
 more precarious than usual. And just as debates with 18 or 19 candidates would be unwieldy, pollsters are grappling with what happens when you try to ask voters about a laundry list of more than a dozen candidates on a primary ballot test." 
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- "Pew report: Web polls more negative on political figures," by Campaign Pro's Steve Shepard: 
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2016 IN 2 MINUTES -

- "Interview: Paul tees off on Bush, Rubio," by POLITICO's Manu Raju: "Rand Paul ramped up his criticism of Jeb Bush's remarks on Iraq, rebuking the former Florida governor Wednesday for an 'incredibly fumbled answer' over the 2003 military invasion. He then took a swing at Marco Rubio for being on the 'wrong side of history' by supporting foreign aid. 'If any Republican nominee wants to run on the idea that borrowing money and printing it up and sending it to foreign countries that often hate us and burn our flag and think it's a good idea, feel free to run on that issue,' Paul said in an interview with POLITICO. 'But it's not really popular with the people.'" 
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- "Scott Walker's crisis of faith," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "Scott Walker, the son of a Baptist preacher who says he takes his orders from God, has an unexpected problem on his hands: Many social conservatives don't trust him. Next week, the Wisconsin governor will travel to Capitol Hill to hold a private meeting with influential evangelical leaders, some of whom are expressing deep reservations about his track record on issues near and dear to them. Pointing to his past statements, and even his hire of a top campaign aide, they are openly questioning whether his views on abortion and gay marriage align with theirs and whether he's willing to fight for their cause. 'Clearly he's not
 well known within Washington, D.C. with social conservative leaders. He's more known for his battle with unions in Wisconsin,' said Tony Perkins, the president of the Family Research Council and one of about 50 people who was invited to huddle with Walker. 'I think people are wondering, 'Where does he stand?'" 
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- "Jeb's other early-state play: Nevada," by POLITICO's Eli Stokols in Las Vegas: " Jeb Bush came to Nevada hoping to steal a march on Rand Paul, who Republican insiders have long thought had an edge here with his libertarian politics and father's organization. Instead, Bush's two stops offered more evidence that the putative GOP presidential front-runner's vulnerabilities as a candidate are at least as great as his strengths. In a matter of hours Wednesday morning in Reno, Bush mispronounced Nevada, got dressed down by a town hall attendee who blamed his brother for the rise of ISIL and then, apparently still flustered, accidentally stated during an interview with a local TV station that
 he's running for president before remembering he isn't officially running yet and correcting himself. By the evening, when Bush took the stage in Las Vegas at the Clark County GOP Lincoln Day dinner, there was little energy or conviction in his rote delivery of his 25-minute stump speech. Still, Bush's one-day trip to the two population centers in Nevada - an early-voting state that's been riven by disputes between supporters of Paul's father, Ron Paul, and the GOP establishment - served notice that the GOP field doesn't view the state as Paul's western firewall." 
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- "O'Malley to top progressives: Warren's not running, I am," by POLITICO's Annie Karni: Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley has a message for progressives clamoring for Sen. Elizabeth Warren's entry into the presidential race: She's not running, but I am. As part of an effort to position himself as the most viable candidate challenging Hillary Clinton from the left, O'Malley traveled to New York City Monday night for an off-the-record meeting with about 30 progressive influencers and academics handpicked to meet with him by his team, multiple sources told POLITICO. O'Malley asserted that he is the best shot progressives have at truly challenging Clinton in a primary. 'He went out of his
 way to mention the free trade deal,' which he - like Warren - opposes, said a source present at the meeting." 
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- "Fox News Poll: Clinton favorable slips, Christie underwater by double digits," by Fox News pollster Dana Blanton: 
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- "Willie Wilson, third in Chicago mayor's race, exploring presidential run," by the Chicago Tribune's Meredith Rodriguez: 
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CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'I love a special election. It&#39;s like playing poker with aces, deuces and one-eyed jacks wild." - Mississippi state Democratic Party chair Ricky Cole, who said the party would support MS-01 candidate Walter Zinn&#39;s "successful grass-roots efforts and expand on them" in the June 2 runoff, despite Zinn's underdog status. 
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