Subject: Wisconsin straw poll surprise: A narrow Clinton win - Jonathan Topaz - POLITICO
From: "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>
To: "Alexander S. Mackler" <[email-masked]>, "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Jun 2015 11:43:26 -0400

> http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/wisconsin-straw-poll-surprise-a-narrow-clinton-win-118727.html?hp=t1_r <http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/wisconsin-straw-poll-surprise-a-narrow-clinton-win-118727.html?hp=t1_r>
> 
> Wisconsin straw poll surprise: A narrow Clinton win
> 
> 
> AP Photo
> 
> Bernie Sanders surprises with 41 percent of the vote.
> 
> By Jonathan Topaz <http://www.politico.com/reporters/JonathanTopaz.html>
> 6/8/15 12:02 AM EDT
> 
> Hillary Clinton is crushing the rest of the Democratic presidential field in national polls, but over the weekend, in a Wisconsin straw poll, there was reason to give the Clinton camp pause and to give the Bernie Sanders camp hope.
> 
> Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist and a long-shot for the White House, scored a strong second-place finish to Clinton by drawing 41 percent in a straw poll vote at the Wisconsin Democratic Party convention. Clinton won 49 percent.
> 
> The Vermont senator received 208 of 511 delegate votes at the state convention in Milwaukee on Saturday, while Clinton won votes from 252 of the delegates, leaving her just short of a majority. Both Vice President Joe Biden and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, who announced his candidacy late last month, received three percent of the vote. Former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, who is considering a bid, won two percent of the vote, while former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee, who announced his long-shot candidacy last week, received one percent.
> 
> The result is another encouraging sign for Sanders, who is drawing large crowds in early nominating states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. In the two weeks since he announced his candidacy, the Vermont senator has seen an uptick in the polls against Clinton — who remains the heavy favorite — and Sanders is showing signs he could pick up some supporters of Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the progressive icon who has said repeatedly that she will not run for president in 2016.
> 
> While the first caucuses and primaries are still months away, and while the overall polling gap between Sanders and Clinton is still massive, the Wisconsin results show the strength of the restive progressive movement, and the challenge before Clinton to tap into it.
> 
> Robert Hansen, the Wisconsin Progressive Democrats of America coordinator, said the state party is receptive to Sanders’ left-leaning message, in part because of Democrats’ anger over Gov. Scott Walker’s aggressively conservative tenure. “The Democratic Party of Wisconsin has a very progressive agenda that aligns very much with Bernie … the majority of people behind the scenes are far more progressive or liberal than what you’d see in some other states,” Hansen said.
> 
> He added that, since Walker’s push against unions, organized labor has “re-engaged” with the state party more than in the past, and that progressive activists have gotten more involved in the Democratic infrastructure.
> 
> Neither Clinton nor Sanders attended this year’s convention. A party official read a letter from the former secretary of state, in which Clinton vowed to help build the state party and to visit Wisconsin soon. Sanders recorded a video address that was played only after the straw poll, and the campaign made no organized effort at the conference, according to multiple Sanders advisers.
> 
> “Just imagine if we had really worked it,” said Sanders spokesman Michael Briggs.
> 
> Clinton won last year’s straw poll, with Warren coming in second.
> 
> The Clinton campaign had no immediate comment.
> 
> Clinton in recent weeks has been rolling out a more progressive agenda, to seize upon the energy in the left wing of the party that has mostly been directed toward Warren, despite her insistence she is not running.
> 
> Clinton has spoken more aggressively about workers’ rights, immigration reform, an overhaul to the criminal justice system, and has refused to take a firm stance on President Barack’s Obama’s trade negotiations, which have been heavily criticized by progressives.
> 
> Still, the left lean could be a hard sell to some hard-core liberals, and Clinton is also battling stubbornly high untrustworthy ratings, which are starting to take their  <http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/hillary-clintons-poll-numbers-signal-trouble-ahead-118567.html>toll <http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/hillary-clintons-poll-numbers-signal-trouble-ahead-118567.html> on her favorability numbers.
> 
> Straw poll results can often skew to candidates that appeal more heavily to the base. And a couple hundred delegates voting for Sanders in a state that won’t hold its primary until April 2016 doesn’t signal a crisis for Clinton.
> 
> But it’s another data point to support what Sanders advisers often call the “restive progressive base” — a growing coalition of liberal voters that are disenchanted with the last six years of Obama and are looking for more fundamental change. That the result came at a state party convention is particularly notable; Sanders, after all, is the longest-serving independent in congressional history and isn’t a member of the Democratic Party. And it’s another indication that Sanders can be competitive particularly in liberal states, such as Washington state, where a poll late last month showed him polling at 24 percent.
> 
> “The Wisconsin straw poll and huge turnouts at town meetings in New Hampshire and Iowa are sending a message that people care about real issues like income inequality and the collapse of the American middle class,” Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver said in a statement Monday morning.
> 
> Annie Karni contributed to this report.
> 
> Authors:
> 
> View Comments

Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC
1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW
Suite 705
Washington, DC 20007
(202) 333-1880
[email-masked] <x-msg://59/[email-masked]>
P Consider the environment before printing this email.