Subject: POLITICO Huddle: TRADE WAR PART II—Ex-Im set to expire—CLUB FOR GROWTH ADS SCRUTINIZED—SCOTUS blockbusters any day now—GOP DEFECTORS PUNISHED
From: "POLITICO Huddle" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 22 Jun 2015 06:05:09 -0600

By Rachael Bade (
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[email-masked]  or @RachaelMBade)

DRIVING THE WEEK: TRADE WAR PART II. The Senate on Tuesday will vote to clear the fast-track trade bill that barely cleared the House last week - sans displaced workers assistance. It's GOP leadership's second go-round at sending the trade legislation to the White House. House Democrats, led by Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), put the kibosh on their first attempt days ago, leaving Republicans scrambling for a new plan: detaching fast-track from the workers package.

The Washington Post's Paul Kane sets the stage: "The Senate will hold a vote on the first piece of the reassembled legislative package in a move plotted by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), House Speaker John A. Boehner (Ohio) and Obama, designed to force liberal Democrats into a box from which they will have no good option... Tuesday's vote, if the same 62 senators hold together, will end any chances of a filibuster on TPA, setting up a final vote on the trade-promotion-only plan Wednesday. Immediately after that is approved, the Senate would take up legislation that is designed to increase trade with sub-Saharan nations, the African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA.

"That's the very popular bill that has come to the rescue for Obama and his unusual alliance with McConnell and Boehner. It passed the Senate with 97 votes and the House with almost 400 votes, but it was slightly modified after liberal opposition in the House, so the Senate needed to reconsider the legislation." 
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MURRAY TORN BETWEEN LABOR, STATE'S TRADE ROOTS. Manu and Burgess detail the pressure one particular pro-trade Senator, Patty Murray of Washington, is feeling: "Murray is once again in the cross hairs: She has been targeted by a president who needs every last Democratic vote to push his agenda over the finish line, hails from a trade-dependent state, but still is under pressure from labor unions hoping to stop what they see as a bad deal for American workers. And once again, she's saying little about how she'll come down ahead of the critical procedural votes this week..."

"Murray's low profile underscores just how politically wrenching the trade debate has become for the small group of pro-trade Democrats who hold the key to the president's economic agenda. They may be the linchpin to burnishing a major piece of Obama's legacy - and with it, the most far-reaching trade deal in history - but they are firmly in the minority of a party locked in an increasingly divisive debate over its future direction. And they have little interest in being the face of an issue that enrages the left." 
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Quote Of The Day: "[J]ust put your head down, we gotta get it done." --Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida, talking about the "nervousness" he and pro-trade Democrats feel regarding this second trade vote.

MORE CARROTS?"GOP Leaders Eye Steel Help to Lure Support on Fast-Track Trade Bill," per The Wall Street Journal's Siobhan Hughes: "Senate Republicans are offering a new incentive to support legislation giving the president expanded trade-negotiating power: help for beleaguered steel companies. American steelmakers are seeking help from the government in response to a flood of imports, saying they are the victims of illegal trade practices... have banded together to try to persuade the U.S. International Trade Commission and the Commerce Department to impose punitive tariffs on foreign rivals..."

"Now, lawmakers are looking to attach language broadening the ways steel companies could win trade complaints to a bill that is part of a complex strategy by Mr. [Majority Leader Mitch] McConnell to line up votes for the fast-track bill... Under the strategy... [a]fter the fast-track bill passed the Senate, the chamber would vote next on a bill that would renew an expiring program to aid workers who suffer from production shifts overseas or import competition. In a new twist, the steel measure would be packaged with the worker-aid bill." 
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NOT ON THE PRE-RECESS TO-DO LIST: EX-IM. Roll Call's Emma Dumain: "The House will consider its seventh appropriations bill of the year this week - one to fund the Interior Department and related activities - and possibly more legislation related to trade in the event the Senate keeps to its schedule. But with only four scheduled legislative work days left before the weeklong July 4 recess, there's one thing the House is not expected to take up: reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank."

"The now-likely expiration of the bank's charter on the last day of this month is a fate supporters of the bank, which provides credit and financing for U.S. export sales, predicted back in the waning days of 2014, when lawmakers were negotiating the terms of a government-funding bill. Disconnecting the bank's sunset date from 'must-pass' legislation was a key element of the strategy for Ex-Im opponents, who want to see funding for the credit agency lapse without the political costs associated with a larger shutdown of federal operations. And that is what's on track to happen, despite support for the bank from a majority of House members - almost every Democrat and several dozen
 Republicans." 
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LAWMAKERS ON EX-IM ADS: 'A CHEAP SHOT.' Seung Min reports that the conservative Club for Growth is pumping $1 million into ads against House Republicans on the fence on Ex-Im. Except, some of them were already a confirmed 'no'... "House Republicans who've been hit with the Club's ads back home are increasingly irritated about the powerful outside group's tough tactics aimed at persuading GOP lawmakers to oppose reauthorization of the country's chief export credit agency. And in several cases, several of the targeted House Republicans are a bit flummoxed, too, since they said the Club never bothered to reach out and get their views on Ex-Im, which they say are more or less aligned with those
 of the fiscally conservative group, before it launched the ad war...."

"The Club for Growth has also gone after Republican Study Committee Chairman Bill Flores of Texas ... But it seems that the Club aimed at the wrong member. In an interview, Flores indicated that he found the Club's ads not particularly helpful and said he had already decided to oppose reaffirming the bank's charter before the group launched its ads .... Flores quipped: 'Actually, they could've saved a lot of money if they had called me first.'" 
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RACING TO RECESS. IT'S MONDAY, JUNE 22, 2015. You've got five days 'til the July 4 recess begins - and we've got a boatload to do in the meantime. Grab that coffee and a sugary scone. And email news, scoops and story pitches for the recess here: 
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TODAY IN CONGRESS: The Senate returns at 3 p.m. and votes at 5 p.m. on the nominations of Peter Neffenger to be an assistant secretary of Homeland Security and Daniel Elliott to be a member of the Surface Transportation Board. The House returns tomorrow and will spend the week completing work on Protecting Seniors&#39; Access to Medicare Act, Ratepayer Protection Act and appropriations for Interior and other environment agencies. More work on this vexing trade legislation expected, too.

AROUND THE HILL: Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) is currently guest co-hosting CNBC's Squawk Box, touting her bill to lift the 40-year ban on exporting U.S. oil exports. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) at noon delivers a "progressive foreign policy principles" speech at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

ACROSS THE STREET: "Tensions build as Supreme Court readies blockbuster rulings," by Reuter's Lawrence Hurley: "Tensions are building inside and outside the white marble facade of the U.S. Supreme Court building as the nine justices prepare to issue major rulings on gay marriage and President Barack Obama&#39;s healthcare law by the end of the month. Of the 11 cases left to decide, the biggest are a challenge by gay couples to state laws banning same-sex marriage and a conservative challenge to subsidies provided under the Obamacare law to help low- and middle-income people buy health insurance that could lead to millions of people losing medical coverage."

"Many legal experts predict the court will legalize gay marriage nationwide by finding that the U.S. Constitution&#39;s guarantees of equal treatment under the law and due process prohibit states from banning same-sex nuptials... The healthcare decision is tougher to call. Chief Justice John Roberts, the swing vote when the court upheld Obamacare in 2012, said little during the March 4 oral argument to indicate how he will vote. The court will issue some rulings on Monday, with more likely later in the week." 
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THEME VOTES: GOP AIMS AT OBAMA'S CLIMATE RULES.National Journal's Jason Plautz: "The House has teed up two votes on bills that would scale back the centerpiece of Obama&#39;s climate plan - fittingly, two years to the week after Obama gave a speech on climate change that cemented the issue. First up is a bipartisan bill that would give states the choice to opt out of the Environmental Protection Agency&#39;s carbon emission rules for existing power plants. The 'Ratepayer Protection Act' from GOP Rep. Ed Whitfield of Kentucky also would put a hold on implementation of the standards until all legal battles are settled, a process sure to stretch on for years."

"Later in the week, the House will take a second swipe at the power plant rule by voting a fiscal 2016 spending bill that would bar the EPA from enforcing the rules, cut the agency&#39;s budget, and attack several other prominent EPA regulations on air and water pollution. The power-plant rules-set to be finalized this summer along with rules for new power plants-form the backbone of Obama&#39;s second-term climate agenda. The proposed rule requires a 30 percent carbon pollution reduction from power plants from 2005 levels by 2030, with states crafting individual compliance plans." 
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JUAN WILLIAMS TAKES ON MCCONNELL'S SENATE TACTICS. In an op-ed in The Hill: "When Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) walked past me the other day, he stopped to say: 'You haven&#39;t written anything trashing me lately.' Well, here goes... McConnell is stuck with a bad political hand because he previously used his considerable political and strategic cunning to turn the screws on the Democrats just a bit too tightly. When the GOP was in the Senate minority for the six years up until January, McConnell employed any and every parliamentary technique to stop the Democratic majority and President Obama from advancing their legislative agenda. Now the Democratic minority is following
 the path blazed by McConnell..."

"And then there is McConnell&#39;s continuing bad faith on judicial nominations. Since taking control of the Senate in January, he has allowed only four district court nominees to be confirmed. Not one circuit court judge has been able to win GOP Senate approval. A quick check of history by Jennifer Bendery of The Huffington Post showed that, at this point in President George W. Bush&#39;s second term, the Democratic Senate majority had confirmed 15 of the Republican&#39;s district court nominees and three for the circuit court." 
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OVER THE WEEKEND-

THE HOUSE GOP DEFECTORS PURGE REACHES NEW HEIGHTS. As part of GOP leaderships' ongoing crackdown on defectors who vote against GOP rules, House Oversight Chairman Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) took the gavel away from Rep. Mark Meadows, who chairs the government operations subcommittee. The North Carolina Republican, playing an increasingly leading role for organizing conservatives unhappy with leadership, had voted against a rule for considering the trade package. Last week, several Republicans were removed from the whip team for the same reason.

"Sometimes the coach needs to make a change on the field," Chaffetz told Jake and Lauren over the weekend. "He's still a valuable contributor, and I really like Mark Meadows, he's a good person. But I need to make a change."

It's a huge blow, particularly given that Meadows is knee-deep into probing the fed's data hacking problem and has become an studied expert on the ongoing IRS scandal investigation. Notably, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the leader of the House Freedom Caucus who also voted against the rule, kept his panel gavel. From the story: "Chaffetz said there were a 'variety of factors' that led to him losing his chairmanship of the Government Operations subcommittee. 'I'm just going to leave it at that,' he said, when asked about the other factors. 'There were a variety of factors, but I did what I felt was in the best interest of the oversight committee.' Chaffetz said he this was his decision, not the
 Republican leadership's." 
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MEANWHILE, OVERSIGHT'S JOB ON GRUBER CONTINUES, per Stephanie Armour for the WSJ: "Jonathan Gruber, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist whose comments about the health-care law touched off a political furor, worked more closely than previously known with the White House and top federal officials to shape the law, previously unreleased emails show. The emails, provided by the House Oversight Committee to The Wall Street Journal, cover messages Mr. Gruber sent from January 2009 through March 2010. Committee staffers said they worked with MIT to obtain the 20,000 pages of emails..."

"The emails show frequent consultations between Mr. Gruber and top Obama administration staffers and advisers in the White House and the Department of Health and Human Services on the Affordable Care Act. They show he informed HHS about interviews with reporters and discussions with lawmakers, and he consulted with HHS about how to publicly describe his role. The administration has sought to distance itself from the economist in the wake of his controversial statements in a 2013 video, where he said the health law passed because of the "huge political advantage" of the legislation's lacking transparency. He also referred to the "stupidity of the American voter." 
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SUNDAY SHOW FLYAROUND-

-- "Republicans Tread Carefully in Criticism of Confederate Flag," by Jonathan Martin of the New York Times: "They do not want to risk offending the conservative white voters who venerate the most recognizable emblem of the Confederacy and who say it is a symbol of their heritage. Jeb Bush issued a statement on Saturday saying he was confident that South Carolina 'will do the right thing.' As Florida's governor, Mr. Bush in 2001 ordered the Confederate flag to be taken from its display outside his state's Capitol 'to a museum where it belonged.' Senator Marco Rubio, also of Florida, told reporters [the same as Bush]...But neither candidate would state explicitly whether he wanted South
 Carolina to stop displaying a flag that is a particularly searing reminder of slavery." 
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-- "HHS secretary: No plan if Supreme Court guts Obamacare," by Jim Acosta for CNN: "Days before the Supreme Court could strip it of a central component, there is still no 'plan B' for Obamacare. Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell warned the Obama administration will be unable to cover the millions of Americans who could lose their medical insurance if the Supreme Court decides to unravel much of the Affordable Care Act." 
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LAUNCHING NOW: POLITICO PRO'S LEGISLATIVE TRACKER. This first-of-its kind tool, driven by the feedback of both the market and of our own POLITICO Pros, enables influencers to navigate the legislative process faster and easier.In addition to an intuitive user interface, the tool also includes a virtual whip count that compares Member voting histories, easy note sharing capabilities enabling internal and external stakeholder collaboration and instant bill analysis that will reduce time spent on manual research.To schedule your demo email us at 
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FRIDAY&#39;S TRIVIA WINNER.Kirtan Mehta in Sen. Joe Manchin's (D-W.V.) office was the first to answer that David Davis was Abraham Lincoln&#39;s campaign manager at the GOP Convention in Chicago in 1860 and was rewarded with a Supreme Court nomination.

TODAY&#39;S TRIVIA: Who described the US Senate as a &#39;saucer&#39; to cool hot tea and why? Email 
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