Subject: POLITICO Huddle: TRADE’S DECISIVE MOMENT—How much Obamacare to repeal?—CONSERVATIVES LASH OUT AT BOEHNER—New Benghazi emails
From: "POLITICO Huddle" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 23 Jun 2015 06:27:54 -0600

By Rachael Bade (
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[email-masked]  or @RachaelMBade)

DRIVING THE DAY: TRADE VOTE IN THE SENATE. Free trade-backers think they've got the numbers to clear a vital procedural hurdle today, per Burgess and Seung Min: "Trade proponents appear to have the momentum heading into Tuesday's decisive Senate vote on President Barack Obama's bid for expanded powers to complete the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade pact. Pro-trade Democrats are keeping their positions tightly held, but sources in both parties said the trade measure is likely to win the 60 votes needed to clear a filibuster by liberals..."

"McConnell (R-Ky.) can afford to lose only three of the 14 pro-trade Democrats who last month backed a package granting Obama 'fast-track' trade authority and a companion measure to help workers who lose their jobs to free trade. But the Senate on Tuesday is voting only on so-called Trade Promotion Authority, not the workers aid, which is known as Trade Adjustment Assistance. That has some Democrats nervous about whether a separate effort to approve worker assistance will succeed, given that Republicans strongly oppose the program." 
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BILLION DOLLAR QUESTIONS: HOW MUCH OBAMACARE TO REPEAL? Republicans for months have been planning to use reconciliation to extend Obamacare subsidies if the Supreme Court strikes them down - all while completely gutting the underlying law. But just days before the court's ruling, there's still one big unanswered question:How much should they repeal as part of that plan? Your Huddle author reports: "The plan to use the expedited procedure... is in flux as lawmakers realize they would have to come up with hundreds of billions in spending cuts to pay for a full repeal of Obamacare. And some Republicans aren't sure they want to go there."

"A new cost estimate from the Congressional Budget Office underscored the magnitude of the task: The budget scorekeeper last Friday said a full Obamacare repeal would add $353 billion to the deficit over the next decade. That price tag jeopardizes the GOP plan to use the expedited legislative process for a full repeal because any bill that uses the fast-track procedure, such as subsidy extensions followed by a fuller repeal, must reduce - not increase - the deficit."

"That means Republicans will either have to forgo part of the Obamacare repeal they've promised for years - threatening to peel away the conservative support needed to pass their Plan B; or they'll have to expand their package to include budget cuts to things like education, in order to pay for a fuller repeal. The latter could meet opposition from moderates or vulnerable Republicans up for reelection in 2016." 
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GOOD TUESDAY MORNING! IT'S JUNE 22, 2015. Thanks for reading Huddle, where we stayed up way too late last night watching "The Butler," probably one of the best movies we've seen in a while. Highly recommend. You can always reach me with news, scoops and story pitches, here: 
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TODAY IN CONGRESS: The Senate will take a cloture vote on the motion to concur with the House trade bill at 11 a.m. If cloture is invoked, Senators will have 30 hours of debate prior to final passage - then they'll turn to the workers assistance package.The House returns to town tonight with votes at 6:30 p.m.

AROUND THE HILL: At 10:15 a.m. Sen. David Vitter (R-La.), James Inhofe (R-Okla.), Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and Tom Carper (D-Dele.) will hold a presser on highway re-authorization. Senators will huddle for their caucus lunches around noon. At 2 p.m., House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) holds a pen and pad.

THE JUICE: CONSERVATIVES LASH OUT AT BOEHNER'S "CULTURE OF PUNISHMENT." After well liked Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) was removed from his Oversight subcommittee chairmanship because he voted against leadership on a House rule, Lauren and Jake report that conservatives are fuming and are following this little drama: "A key bloc of conservatives is laying plans to throttle legislation on the House floor and will meet privately this week to discuss a shake-up of GOP leadership. The group is irate at what one called a 'culture of punishment' that Speaker John Boehner's leadership team has instituted against dissenting members..."

"In one of his first interviews since that move, Meadows stopped short of calling for the removal of Boehner or his lieutenants; House conservatives likely lack support to oust Republicans leaders even if they wanted to...'A change of leadership will start to be talked about in more earnest terms... It's not about ideology. It's about that all members of Congress need to have their voice heard and this is a place for debate. Not a place for punishment. People should not be worried about the type of vote they cast, 'yes' or 'no,' based on retribution.'"

"The more credible threat by House conservatives would be to begin voting with Democrats on procedural motions, which would effectively block GOP leaders from advancing favored legislation. In a phone call Sunday evening, members of the Freedom Caucus - led by Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan - began discussing voting in such a concerted way. Freedom Caucus members have already voted no on so-called rule votes - Meadows' decision to do so last week led to the loss of his subcommittee chairmanship - but they're mulling doing so with more regularity." 
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SCHUMER EGGS REPUBLICANS ON APPROPS. Roll Call's Senate reporter Niels Lesniewski on the Democratic Leader-in waiting's latest taunt at the GOP-full of puns: "The latest salvo in what's looking to be a summer of sparring over spending? Eggs. Sen. Charles E. Schumer is using rocketing egg prices to rip the GOP's domestic spending tourniquet - one of many kitchen-table arguments we're told to expect from Democrats ahead of a potential Sept. 30 shutdown showdown...[T]he New York Democrat highlighted recent news of an outbreak of bird flu that has led to tens of millions of chickens being slaughtered and thus, an unusually limited supply of eggs. Schumer said the proposed Republican budget for
 the Agriculture Department includes cuts of about a half-billion dollars..."

"But the GOP-led House Appropriations Committee says Schumer has scrambled the facts. 'The claim that the House Agriculture Appropriations bill somehow slashes funding for animal disease prevention and emergency response - the tools the Department of Agriculture uses to keep egg prices low - is patently false,' House Appropriations spokeswoman Jennifer Hing told CQ Roll Call..." 
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"JOHNSON&#39;S STEEP LEARNING CURVE THREATENS SENATE CAREER." A tough profile by National Journal's Alex Roarty in Madison, Wis: "At a time of deep anger with government, many candidates profess to be political newcomers. With Johnson, it had the uncommon virtue of actually being true. The accountant who spent decades running a Wisconsin-based plastics company had never held elective office when he won his race in 2010... Interviews with ideological allies, Senate operatives, and Wisconsin Republicans all paint a strikingly similar picture of a political novice who struggled with basic tasks, alienated allies, and even prompted speculation that he wouldn&#39;t seek another term in office."

"There&#39;s little doubt, in the minds of those Republicans, that Johnson has grown into his job, especially in the past year. It&#39;s just unclear if the improvement has come too late for a difficult reelection fight against the Democrat he defeated in 2010, former Sen. Russ Feingold..."

"It was as simple as the issues Johnson would discuss once in office. Both privately and publicly, the senator talked about only Obamacare and the debt and deficit-issues that, while important to Republicans, represented only a few of the issues that confront a senator daily. Some Republican leaders reported hearing the same presentation on the subjects-delivered via PowerPoint-three times... But Republicans say Johnson&#39;s fixation on that pair of issues was part of a larger political blind spot that also manifested itself when the senator made controversial votes. Johnson has taken a few of them seemingly at odds with his state&#39;s centrist electorate, such as opposing the farm bill
 shortly after taking office in 2011. But conservatives say he&#39;s also shown little feel for how his votes will play within his own electoral base, like in 2013, when he flipped against his initial opposition to the Ryan-Murray budget deal." 
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Profile Part II: Sen. Bernie Sanders sits down with The Washington Post's Kelsey Snell to talk about his role on the budget panel:"Sanders recently sat down with The Washington Post to talk about his role on the committee, why he says he's a real deficit hawk and the economists who would have his ear if he were to win the White House." 
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BENGHAZI PANEL RELEASES NEW CLINTON EMAILS. Peter Nicholas and Byron Tau for the Wall Street Journal: "He advised then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on the need for a 'ferocious' bombing campaign in Libya during the U.S.'s 2011 military intervention. He sent flattering notes and told Mrs. Clinton she should take her rightful place in history for helping oust former Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi. A new batch of emails released by a congressional committee Monday offers a rare window into the unique and complicated role that Sidney Blumenthal has played in the life of Mrs. Clinton, now the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination..."

"Mr. Blumenthal, a former journalist with the New Yorker and Washington Post, served in the White House during Bill Clinton's second term and worked on special projects and as a communications strategist. He is part of a far-flung coterie of confidantes who appear and reappear in the Clintons' lives. Loyal to former aides, the Clintons seldom jettison those who enter the inner circle and often find new ways to put them to work." 
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Brock v. Gowdy Part II: Ruby Cramer for BuzzFeed: "In an open letter on Monday afternoon, Brock said his relationship with Blumenthal was well-known, described the [Benghazi] committee's focus on Media Matters as politically motivated, and joined calls from other Democrats for Gowdy to reverse his decision to keep private the transcript from Blumenthal's deposition...Blumenthal and his lawyers, according to Brock, were told by 'the lead Republican lawyer for the committee' that the nine-hour deposition had produce little of use: "'Maybe we got five minutes worth of something,'" they said afterward, Blumenthal told Brock." 
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TOOMEY HONORED BY SANDY HOOK FAMILIES FOR GUN STANCE.Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Penn.) will received the "Sandy Hook Promise Champion Award" tonight for a bill he wrote with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) that would have expanded background checks and was aimed at keeping the guns out of the hands of criminals and the mentally ill, according to a release. The group is made up of the parents and families of kids and teacherskilled at the Connecticut school shooting.

His statement reiterates his commitment to gun-control: "I am honored and humbled to be recognized by the Sandy Hook Promise organization," Toomey, who is facing a toss-up re-election next year, said in a statement. "The horrendous massacre in Charleston reminds us once again of the pain of Sandy Hook.... I continue to believe strongly that as a nation we can and should do more to prevent guns from getting into the hands of people who have no right to them - criminals and the mentally ill."

PRAYERS: "KING TO UNDERGO SURGERY FOR PROSTATE CANCER," by NBC's Andrew Rafferty: "Independent Maine Sen. Angus King disclosed Monday that he will undergo surgery for prostate cancer once Congress breaks for its July 4 recess later this week. King, 71, said he will have surgery on Friday to remove the cancer that was detected during his annual physical in April. 'In my case, the doctors found my cancer early. We have a plan to treat it, and plan for a full recovery,' King said in a statement...King is already a cancer survivor." 
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TRANSITIONS: Katy Summerlin, formerly of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, started this week as Press Secretary for Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga). (H/t Daniel Lippman)

LAUNCHING NOW: POLITICO PRO'S LEGISLATIVE TRACKER. This first-of-its kind tool, driven by the feedback of both the market and of our own POLITICO Pros, enables influencers to navigate the legislative process faster and easier.In addition to an intuitive user interface, the tool also includes a virtual whip count that compares Member voting histories, easy note sharing capabilities enabling internal and external stakeholder collaboration and instant bill analysis that will reduce time spent on manual research.To schedule your demo email us at 
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MONDAY&#39;S TRIVIA WINNER.Adrian Smith was the first to answer that it was George Washington who said the Senate's purpose was to 'cool' House legislation just as a saucer cools hot tea. Leader McConnell gets an honorable mention for answering correctly - though by a few hours too late - as does Susan Sullivan Lagon, senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University, for emailing an entire backstory.

TODAY&#39;S TRIVIA: When this former Senator was knighted by Queen Elizabeth II in 2013, he became the fourth Senator to be bestowed with the honor. Name this Senator and the full membership of this exclusive club. Email 
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