Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Updating Campaign Pro’s 2016 Senate race rankings — Arizona Dems exhale after SCOTUS upholds House map
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 30 Jun 2015 08:01:48 -0600

By Steven Shepard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro&#39;s Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day&#39;s most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (
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TODAY ON CAMPAIGN PRO - OUR SENATE RACE RANKINGS - "Dems have narrow path to majority": 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa71d5c914f9a1a993afcb399f2f39cdb1ece1e0a6772480018 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa71d5c914f9a1a993afcb399f2f39cdb1ece1e0a6772480018 

Days until the 2015 election: 126. Days until the 2016 election: 497.

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RAISING ARIZONA - We finally got the long-awaited Supreme Court decision in the Arizona redistricting case on Monday:

- "Supreme Court upholds Arizona redistricting commission," by POLITICO's Tarini Parti: "The Supreme Court on Monday ruled that Arizona's use of an independent commission to redraw congressional districts is constitutional, leaving the state's maps intact for the 2016 election - a victory for reform groups pushing for removing politically motivated state lawmakers from the redistricting process. In a 5-4 decision, the court found that the commission created by a ballot initiative in Arizona falls under the definition of 'legislature' in the federal constitution's Elections Clause - which states that 'the times, places and manner of holding elections for senators and representatives, shall
 be prescribed in each state by the Legislature thereof.' ... The court's decision on Monday goes beyond Arizona and reaffirms maps drawn in other states through a similar process. ... It has also spurred efforts in several other states where activists or state officials have expressed interest in creating independent redistricting commissions of their own, said Kathay Feng, national redistricting director for Common Cause." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa7b4baf316d02eb0ac6537ac48e26f49b120a12f74b0034dea 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa7b4baf316d02eb0ac6537ac48e26f49b120a12f74b0034dea 

- "Arizona Democrats bolstered by court ruling," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa7ee67138da4e3f6e5d546157ef02322715df4ea4a2380d7c3 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa7ee67138da4e3f6e5d546157ef02322715df4ea4a2380d7c3 

- "Redistricting litigation persists in key states despite court ruling," by Campaign Pro's Steve Shepard: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa70aed68bb03d32b7945551542e5a4ddeb1e1b01629b4d2bda 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa70aed68bb03d32b7945551542e5a4ddeb1e1b01629b4d2bda 

AYOTTE COUNTERPROGRAMMING - The DSCC will release a memo later this morning from communications director Justin Barasky aimed at countering New Hampshire GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte's reelection announcement this evening. The memo calls Ayotte's early announcement "a stunning admission of fear regarding her reelection prospects," counts six advertisements run for GOP and conservative groups "to prop up Ayotte" and enumerates votes in the Senate the committee believes will hurt Ayotte. Read the memo: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa73973670d63eb4e60502b61055326c40005e188b7d3f0d937 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa73973670d63eb4e60502b61055326c40005e188b7d3f0d937 

- One name not mentioned in the memo: Maggie Hassan

- The U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Rob Engstrom tweeted out apparent poll results in the race (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa72b6b0c94d3c98ac0a9a714a07299b2ed0f66bef328bfcf60 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa72b6b0c94d3c98ac0a9a714a07299b2ed0f66bef328bfcf60 ), but a Chamber spokesperson declined to provide more information after a follow-up inquiry yesterday evening.

AIR TOOMEY - Pennsylvania GOP Sen. Pat Toomey is out with an early TV ad airing in Pittsburgh, Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard reports. The spot is focused on his efforts - along with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), to require background checks for school employees. 'Pat Toomey is leading a national fight against predators in schools," a narrator says. Watch the ad: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa7bd440b5081f96cf2e69e62034e194bd6c526827a28934bc8 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa7bd440b5081f96cf2e69e62034e194bd6c526827a28934bc8 

GRAYSON'S HEDGE-FUND HEADACHE - "Grayson hedge funds skirt ethics rule," by POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon in Tallahassee: "[Florida Democratic] Rep. Alan Grayson manages hedge funds that use his name in their title, a practice prohibited by congressional ethics rules designed to prevent members from using their elected post for financial gain. The specific ethics provisions tied to the funds Grayson manages, two of which are based in the Cayman Islands, sit in a sort of gray area, and have never been examined by the House ethics committee. Attorneys for the Democratic congressman say the funds are exempt from House ethics rules that ban a sitting member from naming a financial entity after
 themselves. But their stated rationale is considered 'complete nonsense' by legal and finance experts who reviewed the fund's regulatory filings." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa7657d2d7162802c1697eb74950b4f7950e5778ac478c107b6 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa7657d2d7162802c1697eb74950b4f7950e5778ac478c107b6 

QUITE FRANKLY - "Despite controversy, Guinta poised to run again," by WMUR's Josh McElveen: "In his first television interview since the Federal Election Commission released its full report on the illegal campaign contributions that came from his parents&#39; bank account, [New Hampshire GOP Rep. Frank] Guinta said he has been focused on his job. 'Things are great,' he said. 'It&#39;s good to be home for a week. We&#39;ve had a pretty busy legislative calendar for the month of June in Washington.'"

- "Guinta has refused to resign, and it appears he is running again. He sent out fundraising emails Friday and Monday asking for donations to his campaign. 'Obviously, the campaign will make those announcements at the appropriate time,' Guinta said. 'But we have every expectation of moving forward as always and as previously planned.'' 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa797833d19a1328c457b2aa956caf31de5f6ea037745a297a1 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa797833d19a1328c457b2aa956caf31de5f6ea037745a297a1 

2016 IN TWO MINUTES -

- "Betting it all on New Hampshire," by POLITICO's Eli Stokols: "As soon as he makes his presidential announcement [today], Chris Christie will race to New Hampshire for a town hall. The embattled New Jersey governor has little choice: he has to go all-in on the Granite State. Trouble is, he's not alone. Jeb Bush and Rand Paul are also heavily invested in New Hampshire. So are a handful of GOP long-shots ranging from George Pataki to John Kasich, all of whom will be focusing their campaigns almost entirely on the first-in-the-nation primary state. Never before have so many White House hopefuls bet so much on a single primary." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa76aee56c5d67ea34a3a72ab31306b10d0fde47e82f8001a82 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=49f182364cfd9aa76aee56c5d67ea34a3a72ab31306b10d0fde47e82f8001a82 

- "Chris Christie's biggest backer: 'Would I write a check for $10 million? No,'" by National Journal's Shane Goldmacher: "As Chris Christie announces his bid for the White House, he&#39;s expected to lean heavily on the financial support and network of Ken Langone, a billionaire Republican donor and one of Christie&#39;s most visible and vocal backers. But in an interview with National Journal on the eve of Christie&#39;s launch, Langone, a co-founder of Home Depot with a Forbes-estimated net worth of $2.7 billion, said he would not be dipping into his personal fortune to write the kind of massive, eight-figure check to Christie&#39;s super PAC that would instantly change the complexion of
 the 2016 race." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ef17d15b8cf1072da292ea4aa0d646015feeffae62d02dc46daebb0d57489e88 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ef17d15b8cf1072da292ea4aa0d646015feeffae62d02dc46daebb0d57489e88 

- "Brash personality seen as Chris Christie's main asset," by the New York Times' Maggie Haberman: "More than any other candidate, Mr. Christie is poised to run a race that sells his personality - brash, challenging and often combative - as his main asset. He has become a maestro of the town hall meeting, standing in a suit taking questions from New Jersey residents around the state until none remain, leaving some people enraged but many more laughing, weeping or hoping he would come over and clasp their hand. ... 'He has been a larger-than-life figure in Republican consciousness for how many years now?' asked Alex Castellanos, a former adviser to Mitt Romney and a frequent critic of Mr.
 Christie. 'We loved him because he was 400 pounds of uncontrollable nitroglycerin,' Mr. Castellanos said. 'And now we fear him because he's 400 pounds of uncontrollable nitroglycerin.'" 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ef17d15b8cf1072df4f22fc1f0782026fafead9effd10f6e0ed2c4a64fd4872d 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ef17d15b8cf1072df4f22fc1f0782026fafead9effd10f6e0ed2c4a64fd4872d 

CODA-QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Please go read the definition of 'blackmail.' ... I didn't gain anything out of it, and neither does he. So there's nobody gaining anything. So I think you are misusing the word. And that's coming from a Frenchman." - Maine Gov. Paul LePage, responding to allegations that he blackmailed a charter school for at-risk children by threatening to withhold state funds if the school hired state House Speaker Mark Eves as president. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ef17d15b8cf1072d6d2d84974e85b063b9c7734a8b191d4ef7ee311a793979fc 
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