Subject: Factors in the FOMC Decision
From: "David Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 30 Jul 2015 18:31:24 -0700 (PDT)

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Dear R. Hunter,

After the frisson of excitement generated by the Greek crisis and the 
Chinese stock market decline this July, we seem headed for the late 
summer doldrums. The recent FOMC meeting statement, and the release of 
US GDP figures yesterday, point to no surprises. Buoyed by modest gains 
in employment and consumption, the FOMC seems likely to raise rates at 
its September meeting. As my colleague Michael Lewis explains in the 
attached reports, international issues did not figure into the FOMC 
statement at all. However, other countries, including Canada, China, and 
South Korea, will continue to ease. I am also attaching my report on the 
divergence of the US and Canadian economies. A safe time perhaps, for me 
to head to my Vermont camp next week, and the meeting of the National 
Business Economics Issues Council in Maine.

With all best wishes,

David Hale 
Chairman

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