Subject: Fwd: POLITICO's Morning Money: Biden-world mind meld — Coffey next New York Wall Street cop? — Shutdown odds spike — Hillary Clinton to air first ads
From: "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>
To: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 3 Aug 2015 09:07:35 -0400

Interesting take from Ben White....

Eric D. Schwerin
[email-masked]

Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

*From:* "Morning Money" <[email-masked]>
*Date:* August 3, 2015 at 8:02:24 AM EDT
*To:* <[email-masked]>
*Subject:* *POLITICO's Morning Money: Biden-world mind meld — Coffey next
New York Wall Street cop? — Shutdown odds spike — Hillary Clinton to air
first ads*
*Reply-To:* "POLITICO subscriptions" <
[email-masked]>

By Ben White

*BIDEN WORLD MIND MELD* - Lot of chatter about a Joe Biden presidential
campaign over the weekend spurred by a Maureen Dowd column and subsequent
NYT piece. This is from a person in close touch with Biden world, based on
many conversations with insiders over two years: "The Vice-President is the
ultimate political animal, and political animals are constantly evaluating
their opportunities. The Joe Biden pictured in What It Takes, the classic
presidential campaign book about the 1988 presidential race, is a guy who
desperately wants the ultimate prize. ...

"Biden came from a dynastic political family long before anyone ever heard
of Hillary Clinton. Once that bug bites you, you have it for life. Despite
West Wing staff attempts to clip his political wings, Biden has a core
group of very capable loyalists who are ready to jump at the chance to make
him President.

"His senior consigliere, former Senator Ted Kaufmann, leads the pack, but
he also has an experienced hand on staff in Steve Ricchetti, his current
Chief-of-Staff and a former Deputy Chief-of-Staff for President Bill
Clinton. There is no doubt that his family wants him to do it, and that he
would like nothing more. Given the seemingly early Democratic Party
consensus around Hillary's candidacy, he and his team decided to take a
pass on an active race, but they always understood that if Hillary
implodes, the alternative would not be Sanders or O'Malley. No one is
paying more attention to her high negatives in key states than Biden and
his people.

"Later this summer the entire Biden family will be vacationing together,
and topic number one will be whether Joe should run. ... If Hillary falters
on her own (as she appears to be doing), Biden would escape the epithets
hurled his way by her loyalists that would blame him for standing in the
way of her historic candidacy. Instead, he becomes the hero who saves the
Party from an electoral debacle. It's a tricky business that requires
precise timing to work. He cannot afford to be perceived as the 'unseen
hand' behind her collapse.

"Beau Biden's desire to see his dad in the race has been campaign fodder
for weeks now. Does anyone really think that leaking Beau's deathbed wishes
is an accident? In the end, Joe may not run, but only a fool would think he
is not actively considering it. Hillary is no fool. ... And Biden's folks
see the anemic fundraising of Priorities USA, Hillary's so-called SuperPac,
as an opening for their own fundraising."

*COFFEY NEXT NEW YORK FINANCIAL COP?* - Capital New York's Jimmy Vielkind
scoops: "The Cuomo administration is seriously considering John P. 'Sean'
Coffey, a former candidate for attorney general, as the next commissioner
of the state's Department of Financial Services, three people familiar with
the search process said. ... Coffey, an established trial lawyer and
one-time federal prosecutor, has been advanced as a successor to Ben
Lawsky, who left D.F.S. in June to start his own consulting firm. ...
One source said Coffey had several advocates within the governor's cabinet,
but that Cuomo himself was not yet convinced. A spokesman for the governor,
Rich Azzopardi, declined to comment on Coffey beyond saying, 'the search is
ongoing.' Coffey did not return an email seeking comment.

"Coffey is a partner at Kramer Levin, but gained notoriety in the financial
world when he won billions in settlements from Wall Street banks that had
pumped up WorldCom stock. That company declared bankruptcy after an $11
billion accounting fraud. Coffey finished third in a five-way primary for
the Democratic nomination to succeed Cuomo as attorney general. While he
cast himself as a candidate with a long record of public service - he
graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy and served 30 years of active and
reserve duty - it was his first run for office" http://bit.ly/1eMqO1V
<http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4ae2776e4a6c29f3cfa0e762ba8ae1c88a5d81cc71721f6e9cb5f7795b0a399f>

*OBAMA UNVEILS CARBON PLAN* - Per the White House: "Today at the White
House, President Obama and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Administrator Gina McCarthy will release the final Clean Power Plan, a
historic step in the Obama Administration's fight against climate change.
... The Clean Power Plan establishes the first-ever national standards to
limit carbon pollution from power plants. We already set limits that
protect public health by reducing soot and other toxic emissions, but until
now, existing power plants, the largest source of carbon emissions in the
United States, could release as much carbon pollution as they wanted.

"The final Clean Power Plan sets flexible and achievable standards to
reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 32 percent from 2005 levels by 2030, 9
percent more ambitious than the proposal ... The Clean Power Plan, and
other policies put in place to drive a cleaner energy sector, will reduce
premature deaths from power plant emissions by nearly 90 percent in 2030
compared to 2005 and decrease the pollutants that contribute to the soot
and smog and can lead to more asthma attacks in kids by more than 70
percent"

*SHUTDOWN ODDS SPIKING* - From Stan Collender's Forbes column up this a.m.:
"The chance of a federal government shutdown increased dramatically and
precipitously last week from 40 percent to 60 percent. It's now more likely
than not that a shutdown will result from the craziness going on in
Washington. ... With the House already in recess until after Labor Day and
the Senate about to leave town this week, all of the components that had
led to my previous 40 percent estimate got worse. There's now even less
time - Congress will be in session only a handful of days before the fiscal
year begins on October 1 - for the House and Senate to devote to
appropriations.

"The leadership has already admitted that nothing has been decided about
how to deal with this situation. In other words, this will be the kind of
last minute, ad hoc decision that in the past has repeatedly failed and led
to unwanted consequences ... like a shutdown. ... Add to the lack of time
the ever-hardening positions on the key appropriations question of military
vs. domestic spending. ... [T]he biggest change from last week in the odds
of a government shutdown is because of the emergence of the one big thing
that has been missing so far from the appropriations debate: a highly
emotional, politically toxic and take-no-prisoners issue. ... This time
it's the new GOP push to defund Planned Parenthood"

*TRUMP STILL SURGING* - 'Trump Surges in [national] NBC News/WSJ Poll,' by
NBC's Carrie Dann: 1) Trump - 19 percent ... 2) Walker - 15 percent ... 3)
Bush - 14 percent ... 4) Carson - 10 percent ... 5) Cruz - 9 percent ...
6-7) Huckabee, Paul: 6 percent ... 8) Rubio - 5 percent ... 9-10-11)
Christie, Perry, Kasich - 3 percent ... 12-13) Jindal, Santorum - 1 percent
... Less than 1 percent: Fiorina, Graham, Pataki, Gilmore."
http://nbcnews.to/1DjayRU
<http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4ae2776e4a6c29f3173106c88192a401004e8e61d988f9274b45fa2327b8f50b>

*THE NEW (CRUMMY) NORMAL* - Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson: "Paranormal? The
economy is normalizing and the Fed is contemplating the start of policy
normalization, but what is normal? For growth, it is certainly not what it
used to be. ... Real GDP growth now shows a 2.1 percent average annual rate
since the recession ended six years ago, down from 2.2 percent previously.

"The slight lowering was despite a modest upward revision to the first
quarter of this year - to a 0.6 percent rate from minus 0.2 percent - and a
2.3 percent pace in the second quarter. We thought GDP might be revised up
toward the slightly stronger GDI data. Instead, real GDI was revised down a
little ... [W]e see little basis for expecting much change to the data any
time soon and we are slightly lowering our projections for coming quarters"

*GOOD MONDAY MORNING* - Just an early warning that your regular M.M. will
go on break for two weeks starting on Friday. But the column will keep
cranking. Then the whole operation will go dark the final week of August.

*DRIVING THE WEEK * - First GOP debate on Thursday! Should be a blast with
Trump in the mix ... Jobs report Friday expected to show a solid gain of
225K with no change to the 5.3 percent jobless rate ... President Obama
this afternoon delivers remarks on the Clean Power Plan ... Antonio Weiss,
counselor to Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, delivers remarks and moderates a
discussion at the Brookings Institution on whether there are structural
problems in the U.S. bond market ... Personal income and spending Monday at
8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.3 percent and 0.2 percent respectively ...
Manufacturing ISM at 10:00 a.m. expected to be flat at 53.5 ...
Non-manufacturing ISM at 10:00 a.m. Wednesday expected to rise to 56.2 from
56.0 ...

*THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES* - Zachary Warmbrodt on
the FSOC review of GE and AIG's designations as systemically important
financial institutions [http://politico.pro/1M536wq
<http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4ae2776e4a6c29f3ce3cb371c9a0b9356ac4a39b0e73cc9a7ccc48dc3022947d>].
For Pro's subscriber-only coverage - and to get Morning Money every day
before 6 a.m. - please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or
[email-masked]

*CLINTON GOING UP WITH FIRST ADS* - POLITICO's Annie Karni: "Hillary
Clinton will become the first top-tier candidate to hit the airwaves in the
early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire starting Tuesday with a $2
million ad buy for five weeks of television commercials - a gambit intended
to get out in front of her competitors and help boost her popularity before
the airwaves are cluttered with competing messages from other candidates.
...

"It's also a show of force in Iowa where recent polls show Clinton's
favorability numbers dropping, and where Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has
enjoyed surging popularity - the single ad buy is almost as large as
Sanders' total campaign spending of $3 million in the first quarter, and
more than any top-tier Republican candidate has spent so far on ads. The
television spots, each 60 seconds, focus on Clinton's mother, Dorothy
Rodham, the person she says inspired her to fight for women and children,
and whom she highlighted in her kickoff speech on Roosevelt Island in June"
http://politi.co/1KKPUfZ
<http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4ae2776e4a6c29f3ff65e1fb9e0a1e886673c3b7717689104a573e4ecd8db6b6>

*FEAR FOR THE MILLENNIALS* - Steve Rattner in the NYT: "[B]e fretful over
their economic well-being and fearful - oh so fearful - for their
prospects. The most educated generation in history is on track to becoming
less prosperous, at least financially, than its predecessors. ... They are
faced with a slow economy, high unemployment, stagnant wages and student
loans that constrict their ability both to maintain a reasonable lifestyle
and to save for the future.

"Longer term, rising federal debt payments and increased spending on Social
Security and Medicare will inflict a tremendous financial burden on them,
threatening their own prospect of receiving promised retirement benefits.
... Americans between 18 and 34 are earning less today (after adjustment
for inflation) than the same age group did in the past. A typical
millennial averaged earnings of $33,883 (in 2013 dollars) between 2009 and
2013. That was down 9.3 percent (after adjustment for inflation) in just a
decade and is the lowest since 1980." http://nyti.ms/1IyJcTG
<http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4ae2776e4a6c29f3f5353a65bad1bfce69694a9f9aa17512dd72654a80f71856>

*CLINTON LAND DOESN'T BUY BIDEN RUN* - POLITICO's Annie Karni: "Vice
President Joe Biden has earned the right to take a serious look at a
presidential run. He's a beloved figure in the Democratic party, a stand-up
guy. That's the party line being offered among many Hillary Clinton allies,
who when asked about the latest Biden trial balloon are quick to stress
that they consider him a friend, or that they are admirers from afar. ...
But behind the stated support for the Vice President is a harder
calculation - that the latest flirtation is the last gasp before Biden puts
to bed the possibility of his last shot at the White House ...

"Biden has been meeting with friends and political allies in recent weeks,
as he's struggled to cope with the death of his eldest son, Beau. Often,
the subject of a presidential run comes up. He remains open to a run, they
say, but some who spoke to POLITICO on the condition of anonymity said he
is not close to making a decision." http://politi.co/1IdNByj
<http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4ae2776e4a6c29f32f811e9250007e5637dfcfea8d78ad979f8e22dd6d79f6e9>

*GOP RACE HEATS UP* - WSJ's Patrick O'Connor and Janet Hook: "The
Republican Party enters its most competitive presidential contest in a
generation buffeted by forces largely beyond the control of party leaders,
from the unexpected surge of Donald Trump to the small pool of wealthy
donors gathered here who are occasionally at odds with GOP brass in
Washington. ... Mr. Trump's unanticipated ascent coincided with the arrival
of five other Republican presidential candidates at a luxury resort here
over the weekend to audition for hundreds of wealthy donors convened by
billionaire industrialists Charles and David Koch.

... "The biannual Koch conference set the stage for the busiest week yet in
the nominating contest, with a candidate forum Monday in New Hampshire and
the first candidates' debate on Thursday in Cleveland. The Koch conference
is an unrivaled convergence of roughly 450 conservatives who have pledged
at least $100,000 a year to various political and ideological endeavors.
Many are also financing individual presidential candidates and the
so-called super PACs that support them ... Mr. Trump poses a more delicate
short-term challenge for the GOP, thanks to high name recognition,
celebrity appeal and a populist message that taps a powerful
anti-Washington vein' http://on.wsj.com/1OJs9D3
<http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4ae2776e4a6c29f34a12d48af2deed2c680e44a79b14ae6cf3c1cb7368068243>

*JEB HEARTS TRUMP* - NYT's Jonathan Martin: "It may be the Summer of Trump,
but the publicity-hungry real estate magnate is not the only Republican
presidential candidate relishing all his attention. Donald J. Trump's surge
in the polls has been met with barely concealed delight by Jeb Bush and his
supporters. Mr. Trump's bombastic ways have simultaneously made it all but
impossible for those vying to be the alternative to Mr. Bush to emerge, and
easier for Mr. Bush, the former Florida governor, to position himself as
the serious and thoughtful alternative to a candidate who has upended the
early nominating process.

"With little indication that his support is slipping and the promise of the
center stage at Thursday's debate, Mr. Trump has essentially frozen the
rest of the field ... The broad attention given to his position atop
national polls overshadows more worrisome indicators for him, including the
substantial number of potential primary voters who say they would not
support him under any circumstances. But for the moment he is depriving
many of the other 16 Republican candidates of the political oxygen they
need ... That mainly helps Mr. Bush" http://nyti.ms/1DjMr5D
<http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4ae2776e4a6c29f36ef9cc80a3ffaa5b5f893cfadb880a97e3536dae30eee926>

*PUERTO RICO HEADES TO DEFAULT* - FT's Eric Platt and Nicole Bullock:
"Puerto Rico defaulted on some of its debts this weekend after years of
battling to stay current on its obligations, signalling the start of a long
and contentious restructuring process for the US commonwealth's $72bn debt
pile. ... The territory, which successfully scrambled to make a $169m
payment on debts owed by the Government Development Bank on Friday, did not
make a $58m payment on Public Finance Corporation bonds, according to
Victor Suarez, chief of staff for Puerto Rico's governor ...

"The missed payment will push Puerto Rico formally into default after the
close of business on Monday said credit rating agency analysts. The PFC
bonds are the first to fall into arrears, and a government 'working group'
is racing to come up with a plan to restructure the territory's debts and
overhaul its economy. Puerto Rico governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla
startled investors earlier this year when he said the commonwealth would
not be able to pay off all of its debts and required a restructuring, a
move many bondholders - especially creditors to the government itself - are
loath to accept." http://on.ft.com/1SygLA4
<http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4ae2776e4a6c29f34ff450ed80b0eec1fd89fdfee53cb094ec47f55c93519888>

*ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR* -

*STARTUP TO AID STARTUPS* - NYT's Dino Granoni: "Uber, the ride-hailing
app, seems capable of the impossible: fighting City Hall and winning. In
its recent tussle with the city of New York, the company emerged victorious
after an all-out media blitz against Mayor Bill de Blasio ... Now, one of
the advisers behind that campaign wants to bring his touch with government
to other technology start-ups. Bradley Tusk, a former campaign manager for
New York's last mayor, Michael R. Bloomberg, is starting Tusk Ventures, a
political consulting firm geared toward helping start-ups work with - and
in some cases, beat back - government regulators." http://nyti.ms/1fXPlSw
<http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4ae2776e4a6c29f3df66cbb856cd293f649c5a730ad9f1b28c665acb0923068b>

*IMF GETS SMART ON GREECE* - Mohamed El-Erian: 'By hesitating to play a
full financing role in the latest bailout program for Greece, the
International Monetary Fund risks alienating both the Greek government and
its European partners. Yet the institution's approach isn't just warranted;
it could well hold the key to the success of the challenging task of
restoring Greece's growth and financial viability within the euro zone. ...

"The IMF, although willing to join in the creditor negotiations with
Greece, has indicated that its willingness (indeed, ability) to participate
in a new funding arrangement depends on progress on some important and
long-standing unfinished business. It wants to see a comprehensive
pro-growth economic reform program for Greece; progress in its
implementation; guarantees for the country's financing needs; and debt
relief." http://bv.ms/1IiIHOg
<http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4ae2776e4a6c29f30243ab385d084bb6bf9f78fde7716721321ac34115ac5f9f>

*ATHENS EXCHANGE TO RE-OPEN* - FT's Kerin Hope in Athens: "The Athens stock
exchange was set to reopen on Monday after a five-week shutdown due to the
imposition of capital controls as local investors complained of
discrimination over new restrictions on buying shares. The finance ministry
banned Greeks from transferring money from their local bank accounts to buy
shares over the weekend.

"Local investors would, however, be allowed to invest cash taken from safe
deposit boxes or stored at home for buying shares, the ministry said ...
Analysts said based on the recent experience of GREK, an exchange-traded
fund of US listings of Greek companies, the Athens index could fall sharply
on Monday" http://on.ft.com/1VVOYc8
<http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4ae2776e4a6c29f3153d9882d714407d78a3f369541cb73031e89f64f7f57f19>

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