Subject: Why a Biden Candidacy Is Looking More Viable - Washington Wire - WSJ
From: "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>
To: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 3 Aug 2015 10:44:41 -0400

> http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/08/03/why-a-biden-candidacy-is-looking-more-viable/ <http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/08/03/why-a-biden-candidacy-is-looking-more-viable/>
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> Why a Biden Candidacy Is Looking More Viable
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> Vice President Joe Biden speaks during a roundtable discussion at the Advanced Manufacturing Center at Community College of Denver on July 21. Some of Mr. Biden’s associates are pushing him to join the 2016 presidential race.
> Associated Press
> At the start of the year when Vice President Joe Biden said he wouldn’t decide whether to enter the presidential race until the summer, the timetable didn’t seem to make sense.
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> If he wanted to take on the colossus in the Democratic field, Hillary Clinton, wouldn’t he have to jump in early and start making his case to the party that he’s the better bet?
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> Now Mr. Biden’s timing is looking pretty smart. By waiting, he’s gotten a chance to take Mrs. Clinton’s measure and see whether her candidacy, now nearly four months old, would take flight.
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> While Mrs. Clinton is still the strong front-runner, her campaign is going in the wrong direction in some important respects. The Clinton campaign’s travails may be a reason Mr. Biden’s friends and family are pushing him <http://www.wsj.com/articles/will-he-run-biden-speculation-mounts-1435529527> to make one final bid for the White House. On Sunday night, an independent group working to encourage the vice president’s entry into the 2016 fray announced that a political adviser with ties to the Biden family was joining its staff.
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> Here’s what the poll numbers show: A Quinnipiac University poll last month <http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us07302015_U645de.pdf> showed Mrs. Clinton running about even with Republican opponents Jeb Bush and Scott Walker in a general election matchup. In May, by contrast, Mrs. Clinton was leading Mr. Bush by 10 points and Mr. Walker by eight points.
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> For Democrats who might be looking for an alternative to Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Biden is looking viable: He is doing no worse in head-to-head matchups with Messrs. Bush and Walker. In May 2013, by contrast, Mr. Biden was trailing Mr. Bush by six points.
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> At the same time, Mr. Biden’s favorability rating has improved. The Quinnipiac poll shows that 49% have a favorable view of him, versus 39% who have an unfavorable opinion. In May, 43% had a favorable view of Mr. Biden, versus 41% who had an unfavorable opinion.
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> Amid a steady stream of reports about her email practices as secretary of state and possible conflicts of interest involving donations to the Clinton Foundation, Mrs. Clinton’s approval ratings have been falling. The same Quinnipiac survey showed that 51% have an unfavorable view of the former secretary of state, U.S. senator and first lady, compared to 40% who see her in a favorable light. After she left the State Department in 2013, 61% had a favorable view of her; only 34% did not.
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> With speculation increasing about Mr. Biden’s political future, the Draft Biden 2016 super PAC confirmed Sunday night that Josh Alcorn, who has worked for both Mr. Biden and his son Beau, has signed on as a senior adviser. Mr. Alcorn served as political director and finance director for Beau Biden‘s campaigns, and he also worked on Mr. Biden’s unsuccessful 2008 presidential bid. Beau Biden, the vice president’s elder son, was twice elected attorney general in Delaware, and he planned to run for governor. Beau Biden died of brain cancer in May.
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> “I’m thrilled that Josh is joining Draft Biden,” said Will Pierce, executive Director of Draft Biden 2016. “Biden supporters across the country know how close he was to Beau and his family. Josh joining the Draft Biden effort only increases the seriousness nature of what to date has been an enormously successful effort.”
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> The Clinton campaign remains upbeat, describing her as a “fighter” for everyday Americans whose resilience in the face of years of Republican attacks is an important asset.
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> Yet on consequential issues, Mrs. Clinton isn’t giving much hint about whose side she’s on. She’s steadfastly refused to say whether she supports or opposes the Keystone XL pipeline proposal, maintaining it would be inappropriate for her to comment given that she worked on the issue at the State Department. At a town-hall event in New Hampshire last week, she told one person who asked about Keystone that she might not spell out her position until she becomes president.
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> She has also been guarded when it comes to a major 12-nation Pacific trade deal being negotiated that has split the Democratic Party.
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> One labor leader who listened to Mrs. Clinton make a pitch for the AFL-CIO’s endorsement at a closed-door session last week came away unimpressed. RoseAnn DeMoro, a member of the labor federation’s executive council, said Mrs. Clinton didn’t take a position on the trade deal, which many union leaders oppose.
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> “If I were to characterize her, she’s extremely cautious,” Ms. DeMoro said in an interview <http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/07/30/hillary-clinton-delivers-cautious-message-on-trade-to-afl-cio/> after Mrs. Clinton’s appearance. “It’s sad because as a woman, I think she’s unfairly judged. On the other hand, she’s become so cautious that I actually don’t know what she thinks. I don’t know what she believes. I know what she says, but I don’t know what she believes.”
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> It’s no sure thing that Mr. Biden will take the leap. He has run twice before – in 1988 and 2008 – and lost big both times. Some people close to the vice president would like to see him leave office in 2017 with his reputation intact and not take the risk of getting shellacked by a Clinton campaign that is amply funded and staffed with some of the best operatives in Democratic politics.
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> One wonders, though, if Mr. Biden would even be considering a run if Mrs. Clinton’s troubles — many of them self-inflicted — hadn’t given her the whiff of vulnerability.
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> The Draft Biden effort, which was launched earlier this year, has gained traction this summer. Jon Cooper, a prominent Obama fundraiser, joined Draft Biden as the national finance chairman last month. And Mr. Alcorn’s involvement is likely to spur questions about whether a Biden bid is imminent. Draft Biden officials have said that the vice president has not signed off on the effort, but his allies have not discouraged it, either.
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> “Our movement is gaining steam. We’ve signed up 50,000 new supporters over the last two weeks, and with Josh’s help, we’ll be able to expand our fundraising to show the VP the country is ready for him to enter the race,” Mr. Pierce said.
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> –Colleen McCain Nelson contributed to this report.
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> VIDEO: Washington Bureau Chief Jerry Seib discusses the reasons Vice President Joe Biden might want to run for president–and why he might not:
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Eric D. Schwerin
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