Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: New maps out in Florida — AFP targets Hassan — EMILY’s List endorses McGinty
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 06 Aug 2015 08:01:59 -0600

By Theodoric Meyer and Kevin Robillard

With Steven Shepard and POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon (reporting from Tallahassee)

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro&#39;s Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day&#39;s most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (
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NEW MAPS - "'Base' Florida congressional map helps Dems, except Graham," by POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon in Tallahassee: "A new 'base' congressional map unveiled Wednesday by the Legislature leading up to next week's special session would likely favor Democrats headed into 2016, and almost certainly spell defeat for a handful of incumbents." 
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- Democrats' advantages would come in a number of districts, including FL-10 and FL-13, which would become likely Democratic seats. Other Republican-held districts would become more competitive. But Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham would have no chance to win FL-02 under these lines, and GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo gets a couple points safer (but would still hold an Obama district).

FIRST IN SCORE - AFP targets Hassan with $1.2 million ad buy: Americans for Prosperity is targeting New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan with a $1.2 million television buy criticizing her handling of the state budget. The ad asks viewers to call Hassan and tell her New Hampshire needs tax cuts, not increased government spending. Hassan is in the middle of an ongoing battle with GOP legislators over the state budget after she vetoed the legislature-passed budget in the spring. The decision has also delayed her decision on a Senate run, even as outside conservative groups have spent more than $1 million attacking her on TV, digital and radio ads. The ad will run starting Monday, for four weeks,
 until the end of the month.

DEBATE DAY - "The GOP debate: 5 things to watch," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt in Cleveland: 1. The Trump scouting report ... 2. Jeb vs. the world ... 3. The education of Scott Walker ... 4. Christie vs. Rand ... 5. Moderators itching for a fight." 
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- "How Bush and the GOP got Trumped," by POLITICO's Glenn Thrush and Alex Isenstadt, in POLITICO Magazine: "Bush may yet emerge as the party's nominee, the third member of his family to claim the mantle, and his aides now claim Trump's bloviating presence in a record-shattering field of 17 could be a blessing, allowing Bush to fly under the radar. But Trump's rise has coincided with Bush's awkward return to the national stage, and he has proven to be gaffe-prone on the trail. ... The party's conservative primary voters remain lukewarm and as importantly, he hasn't scared rivals out of the race despite a massive $100 million-plus fundraising haul during his first few months in the race. As
 much as anything, this is the story of 2016 so far. The proliferation of 17 candidates - a mob so big it needed to be subdivided into two separate debates - is a symptom of a deeper dynamic - the absence of a true front-runner capable of uniting the party." 
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- "Big GOP donor uncommitted before debate," by POLITICO's Tarini Parti, Kenneth P. Vogel and Theodoric Meyer: Dozens of wealthy donors have given at least $1 million already this cycle to the super PACs supporting their preferred candidate (or candidates). But most of the biggest donors of the 2014 cycle are still waiting to shell out the big bucks - and the debate on Thursday could help some of them make up their minds. The hedge fund manager David Herro "said debate performance "absolutely" matters in winning his support. 'It's their first big test,' said Herro, who was also among the top 50 GOP donors in 2014, and has thus far given $100,000 to a super PAC supporting Florida Sen. Marco
 Rubio and $25,000 to one supporting New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. 'I'm really looking to seeing not only who has the best answers, but how they communicate.'" 
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- Want more numbers? Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider has a rundown of 10 metrics by which to measure the GOP campaign thus far ahead of the debate. The candidates, for instance, have posted a total of 705 Instagram photos since kicking off their campaign (Rand Paul leads with 110.) 
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Days until the 2015 election: 89. Days until the 2016 election: 460.

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AIR WAR - Kathleen Matthews' campaign to air ad during GOP debate: Kathleen Matthews, running in the Democratic primary to replace Rep. Chris Van Hollen in the Maryland&#39;s D.C. suburbs, will air her first campaign ad during Thursday night&#39;s GOP presidential debate. 'Watching the Republicans run for president makes me proud to be a Democrat,' Matthews says in the ad. Matthews, a long-time local news anchor and former Marriott executive, is married to MSNBC host Chris Matthews. The ad will air first on Fox News Channel during the debate and on MSNBC and CNN during post-debate coverage. (Chris Matthews is scheduled to contribute to MSNBC&#39;s post-debate analysis.) Watch the ad: 
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PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Scott Walker prevails in Koch donor straw poll," by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel: Scott Walker seems to be well on the way to winning the Koch primary. The Wisconsin governor "won a surprising nod in an informal straw poll of major conservative donors gathered by the Koch brothers' operation last weekend in Orange County, Calif., according to sources familiar with the gathering. In a closed-door session that included about 100 donors, Republican pollster Frank Luntz asked donors to clap to indicate their choice for the Republican Party's nomination. While Luntz did not formally track or announce the results, sources say it was clear that Walker got the most
 applause, followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who received roughly the same amount of applause." 
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- "Donald Trump talked with Bill Clinton weeks before launching 2016 bid," by The Washington Post's Robert Costa and Anne Gearan: "Former president Bill Clinton had a private telephone conversation in late spring with Donald Trump at the same time that the billionaire investor and reality-television star was nearing a decision to run for the White House, according to associates of both men. Four Trump allies and one Clinton associate familiar with the exchange said that Clinton encouraged Trump's efforts to play a larger role in the Republican Party and offered his own views of the political landscape. Clinton's personal office in New York confirmed that the call occurred in late May, but
 an aide to Clinton said the 2016 race was never specifically discussed." 
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- "Head of pro-Rand Paul super PAC indicted in payment scheme," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney, Manu Raju and Daniel Strauss: "Sen. Rand Paul's presidential campaign and its allies struck a defiant tone Wednesday, calling the Justice Department's indictment of a longtime Paul confidant "suspiciously timed" for the eve of a presidential debate, while declining to address the substance of the charges. ... The confidant, Jesse Benton, was indicted Wednesday on charges that he bribed an Iowa state senator in 2011 to shift allegiances to Paul's father, Ron, then a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. Benton has recently been helming a super PAC supporting the younger Paul's 2016
 presidential bid." 
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DARK HORSE CANDIDATE - "Dem. nominee Gray: 'Silent knight' of Miss. politics," by the Jackson Clarion-Ledger's Clay Chandler: Meet Robert Gray, the truck driver who on Tuesday became the Democratic nominee for governor in what Chandler calls "perhaps the most unlikely political victory in modern Mississippi history." "Gray is admittedly shy and doesn't talk much. He didn't tell his mother, or any other family or friends, he was running. His mom called him Tuesday and told him she'd voted for him, thinking she'd cast her ballot for a candidate with the same name. By midday Wednesday, Gray said, he had not spoken with friends or family since he secured the nomination." 
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CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I just don't consider him a factor. I don't even go to his Web site or anything like that. He's like several others in the race who just don't matter. On the Democratic side, he's like what's his name - Mahoney, from Maryland?" - Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.), who endorsed Rick Santorum in 2012, now places him in the same league as a certain former Maryland governor seeking the Democratic nomination. 
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