Subject: Biden campaign would face infrastructure challenges
From: "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>
To: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>, "Alexander S. Mackler" <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 7 Aug 2015 16:02:24 -0400

> http://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/local/2015/08/07/biden-campaign-face-infrastructure-challenges/31296371/ <http://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/local/2015/08/07/biden-campaign-face-infrastructure-challenges/31296371/>
> 
> Biden campaign would face infrastructure challenges
> 
> If Vice President Joe Biden enters the 2016 presidential campaign, he not only will face an experienced frontrunner in former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, but also armies of volunteers and staff already in place to help other candidates in early primary states.
> 
> Biden, who is preparing a family vacation ahead of a likely September decision on next year’s campaign, is now confronting questions about whether he has time to build the fundraising and grassroots operations necessary to compete in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — states that control early voting in the Democratic primary cycle.
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> Clinton has already opened 20 offices, hired more than 120 staff members and recruited more than 48,000 committed volunteers in those states, about six months from the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 1.
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> U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, who also is polling ahead of Biden nationally, has just 11 offices in Iowa and one in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. But he has secured commitments from nearly 113,000 volunteers nationwide since he announced his candidacy.
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> “I would hope that most everybody supporting (Biden) in the past will support him in the future,” said Iowa state Rep. Bruce Hunter, a Democrat from Des Moines who endorsed Biden’s 2008 presidential campaign. “But it’s a timing thing. People are going to wait only so long.”
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> Biden is expected to make a decision by summer’s end on whether to launch a campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination. Political attention nationwide has focused on Biden 2016’s plans after reports that Beau Biden urged his father to seek the presidency in the days before he died of brain cancer in May.
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> 
> Vice President Joe Biden and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of Calif., leave a meeting with the House Democratic Caucus to discuss the Iran nuclear deal, Wednesday, July 15, 2015, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta) (Photo: AP)
> 
> Clinton’s poll numbers also are hardly inspiring confidence on the Democratic side. While Clinton continues to dominate national Democratic polling, 37 percent of Americans have a positive view <http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Components/Photo/_new/15313JulyNBCWSJPOLL.pdf> of her, versus 48 percent who harbor a negative view, according to a NBC/Wall Street Journal poll this month.
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> Mary Carey Foley, a longtime Biden supporter in New Hampshire and the daughter of the former mayor of Portsmouth, said she doesn’t think it would be as difficult as people might think for Biden to catch up. She expects him to peel off New Hampshire support from both Clinton and Sanders if he enters the race.
> 
> “Hillary seems to be losing ground instead of gaining it,” she said. “He’s not up against insurmountable hurdles at this point. People love Joe Biden.”
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> ‘What would Beau do?’
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> Biden has run for president twice before, to disappointing results. He dropped out of the Democratic nominating contest in September 1987, before the Iowa caucuses, amid charges he plagiarized a portion of a speech Biden said he forgot to attribute. In 2008, he withdrew from the race immediately after finishing fifth in Iowa, capturing less than 1 percent support.
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> Next year’s race also would be a challenge: Biden would begin more than 40 percentage points behind Clinton in national polling. And the vice president would surely face some of his own challenges, particularly his own propensity to speak freely, and sometimes offensively.
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> Biden apologized in 2007, for example, after calling then-U.S. Sen. Barack Obama the first “mainstream African American (presidential candidate) who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy.”
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> University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato said that tendency likely would haunt another Biden presidential campaign.
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> Within a week of entering the race, Sabato said, “Biden could expect stories galore on his past gaffes and mishaps, reminding people why they weren’t for him in the first place.”
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> Biden loyalists in Delaware, where the wounds from Beau Biden’s death remain unhealed, are neither pressuring Biden to enter the 2016 race or avoid a Democratic primary campaign against Clinton, saying they will respect the vice president’s decision-making process.
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> “When he finishes his evaluation, he’ll let us know,” said Bart Dalton, a Wilmington lawyer who has supported the political campaigns of both Joe and Beau Biden.
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> Dalton said he has not spoken with Biden about a potential 2016 campaign. “If the vice president said he was going to run, I’d try to help him in any way I could,” he said.
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> Stuart Grant, a Wilmington lawyer and Democratic donor who bundled contributions for the 2012 Obama-Biden campaign, said he is not backing a 2016 presidential campaign with Biden still undecided. Grant also was close to Beau Biden, who accepted a position with Grant’s law firm after leaving the Attorney General’s Office in January. “As with all major Biden decisions, my guess is Joe will think about his family, think about all the people involved, solicit their views and come to a decision,” Grant said.
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> Longtime Biden friend Sonia Sloan, who has volunteered on the vice president’s political campaigns since 1970, does not hesitate to say that Biden would make a “great president.”
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> 
> WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 14: President Barack Obama, standing with Vice President Joe Biden, conducts a press conference in the East Room of the White House in response to the Iran Nuclear Deal, on July 14, 2015 in Washington, DC. The landmark deal will limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for relief from international sanctions. The agreement, which comes after almost two years of diplomacy, has also been praised by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. (Photo by Andrew Harnik - Pool/Getty Images) (Photo: Getty Images)
> 
> But Sloan is unsure what Biden might decide on 2016, and she has not discussed a potential campaign with him. “The family has been through an awful lot,” Sloan said.
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> Since Beau Biden’s death, Biden family members and close friends have taken to wearing bracelets that read “WWBD,” for “What would Beau do?”
> 
> “If he decides to run, I will do everything I can,” Sloan said. “He’s a very caring, genuine man. We’re all trying to be very sensitive to their situation.”
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> Democratic Congressman John Carney would “absolutely” support a Biden presidential bid next year, but Carney’s camp stopped short of putting pressure on Biden to make one decision or another.
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> Former top Beau Biden aide Josh Alcorn contributed to speculation last week by joining Draft Biden 2016, the Super PAC attempting to lure the vice president into the Democratic race.
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> Alcorn is no outsider: he traveled with Beau Biden in 2013 to raise money when Biden was considering a 2016 race to become Delaware’s next governor, but had yet to announce those plans publicly.
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> The fundraising blitz resulted in more than $1.4 million in several months. It included a February fundraiser hosted by retired U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd at the Beverly Hills Hotel and a $1,200-per-person fundraiser at Joe Biden’s Greenville home in September 2013, a month after Beau was first diagnosed with the brain cancer that would ultimately take his life.
> 
> Alcorn, also a former finance director U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, is now helping lay the groundwork for a Biden presidential bid </story/news/politics/firststatepolitics/2015/08/03/joe-president/31070221/>. During his first week on the job, Alcorn met with donors in Washington, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Denver, and lent additional credibility to the recruitment effort.
> 
> “Josh is a real pro, a real professional,” Dalton said. “His addition to that group certainly is an interesting development.”
> 
> Even with help from Draft Biden, the vice president faces significant hurdles. Candidates have spent months wooing voters in early voting states. Clinton this week began airing $2 million in television ads in Iowa and New Hampshire.
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> Marlon Marshall, Clinton’s director of state campaigns and political engagement, said the Clinton campaign has been “building an infrastructure in the early nominating states that’s build to last and will help us win the Democratic nomination.”
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> Clinton also has won support from many of her former Democratic colleagues in the Senate.
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> “Most of the people in the Senate have come out ... and said that they were ready for Hillary and have embraced her candidacy,” said Sen. Tom Carper, D-Delaware, who added that he expects to support Biden if he runs.
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> Clinton also won the New Hampshire 2008 primary and has already “tied up” a lot of support there, said Democratic state Sen. Lou D’Allesandro, who has known Biden for decades but is backing Clinton.
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> Sanders, who is no stranger to New Hampshire coming from neighboring Vermont, is generating enthusiasm and has established himself as “the other guy” in the race who is “saying all the right things.”
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> However, he said, Biden has a following in New Hampshire, where his son Beau once served as a law clerk for a federal judge.
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> “If (Biden) wanted to do this, he’d have to make a move pretty quickly and he’d have to solidify the base and get going,” D’Allesandro said. “It’s possible, but it’s not going to be easy.”
> 
> And Biden’s campaign would have to deal with additional burdens not faced by Sanders or Martin O’Malley, the former Marlyand governor who also is seeking the Democratic nomination.
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> The vice president’s need for Secret Service protection makes it harder – and more expensive to the campaign — to go from diner to diner, said Dick Harpootlian, a longtime Joe Biden supporter who was chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party.
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> While his job brings “status” to the campaign, Harpootlian said, “the minus is he’s not going to be walking door to door, although he wants to. Trust me, he’s happiest when he’s doing retail. It’s his forte.”
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> Biden, of course, has advantages.
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> As a sitting vice president who has cultivated support in Iowa for a quarter century, he would immediately enter the presidential race at 20 percent support, Iowa insiders predicted.
> 
> 
> Vice President Joe Biden appears at a business forum in Washington on July 13. Biden, who is said to be considering a presidential race, hasn’t topped 9 percent support in three Iowa Polls since October, according to The Des Moines Register. (Photo: CHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGES)
> 
> “If the vice president enters the race, it would be a game-changer, and the dynamics would be dramatically different,” said Jim Mowrer, a former congressional candidate from Boone, Iowa, who became close with Beau Biden when they both were in the military and has stayed close with the family in recent years. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see shifting endorsements and alliances based on his long history and friendships in Iowa.”
> 
> Joe Biden hasn’t topped 9 percent support in three Iowa Polls since October, Des Moines Register records show. Clinton has consistently been above 50 percent, even as Sanders gained on her.
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> But an Iowa Poll conducted May 25-29, just days before Beau Biden’s death on May 30, underscores Biden’s popularity there. He was viewed favorably by 76 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers.
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> Dan Prymek, of the Laborers’ International Union of North America, called Biden, “a very good choice for folks who don’t feel like they’re hearing what they want to hear from our current candidates. We hear that from our members.”
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> First debate planned in October
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> Supporters say the earlier Biden enters the race, the better. By October, it will be harder to recruit volunteers and build an organization, even though social media makes that much easier now, Harpootlian said.
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> “It’s difficult, but it’s not impossible,” he said. “What Joe Biden has going for him is that he generates enthusiasm and enthusiasm is what motivates people to volunteer. I don’t see that here on the Clinton campaign.”
> 
> The Democratic National Committee on Thursday announced that its first presidential debate will be Oct. 13, in Nevada. Debates also are planned Nov. 14 in Des Moines, Iowa; Dec. 19 in Manchester, New Hampshire; and Jan. 17 in Charleston, South Carolina.
> 
> In South Carolina, Biden has friends and supporters dating back to his early days as a senator. He developed a close friendship with former Sen. Fritz Hollings, D-South Carolina, who introduced him to party leaders in the state when he first ran for president.
> 
> Biden has made numerous trips to the state over the years for vacations, Democratic fundraisers and speeches. The vice president visited the Port of Charleston and Columbia, South Carolina, in February to advocate for additional infrastructure improvements on behalf of the Obama administration.
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> In June, he joined Obama in Charleston for the funeral of the senior pastor of the historically black church where nine members were fatally shot during their bible study. And then he returned to the church for Sunday services to show “solidarity” and to “draw strength” from the congregation following his son’s death, according to news reports.
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> Biden has deep relationships with many leaders in the state’s African-American community, a key Democratic primary voting population that appreciates the work he’s done to advance the agenda of the nation’s first African-American president, Harpootlian said.
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> “That’s not lost on anybody, so that’s a big plus,” he said of Biden’s work as vice president.
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> 
> FILE - In this April 2, 2013 file photo, Vice President Joe Biden and former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton appear onstage at the Vital Voices Global Partnership 2013 Global Leadership Awards gala at the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington. One is a Democratic luminary who draws intense political speculation wherever she goes. The other is the vice president of the United States, with his own higher ambitions. Clinton and Biden are sharing a stage Wednesday night in New York at the Clinton Global Initiative’s annual awards ceremony. The event will highlight the unusual dynamics between the two friends and sometime-rivals. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen, File) (Photo: AP)
> 
> If Biden enters the 2016 race, Harpootlian predicts Biden will be “swamped” with support from South Carolina Democratic officials — including some who have endorsed Clinton because she’s “the only show in town.” Harpootlian has donated $10,000 to the Draft Biden effort and he is ready to contribute another $10,000 to help Biden organize.
> 
> “We’re just waiting for him to make a decision,” Harpootlian said. “Everything I hear from everybody that knows him or is around him is that he is still dealing with Beau’s death and dealing with it in a very personal way. He may very well decide tomorrow that he’s just not emotionally equipped to go through it and no one would blame him.”
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> Iowa caucus winners
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> If Vice President Joe Biden decides to jump into the 2016 presidential race, he would join a contest already fully underway in Iowa, where many candidates already have set up staff and office in advance of the February Caucuses. The contest often is a predictor of a candidate’s later success.
> 
> 2012
> 
> Democrats: Barack Obama* (incumbent, unopposed)
> 
> Republicans: Rick Santorum
> 
> 2008
> 
> Democrats: Barack Obama*
> 
> Republicans: Mike Huckabee
> 
> 2004
> 
> Democrats: John Kerry
> 
> Republicans: George W. Bush* (incumbent, unopposed))
> 
> 2000
> 
> Democrats: Al Gore
> 
> Republicans: George W. Bush*
> 
> 1996
> 
> Democrats: Bill Clinton* (incumbent, unopposed))
> 
> Republicans: Bob Dole
> 
> 1992
> 
> Democrats: Tom Harkin
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> Republicans: George H. W. Bush* (incumbent, unopposed))
> 
> 1988
> 
> Democrats: Dick Gephardt
> 
> Republicans: Bob Dole
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> 1984
> 
> Democrats: Walter Mondale
> 
> Republicans: Ronald Reagan* (incumbent, unopposed))
> 
> * Eventual general election winner
> 

Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC
1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW
Suite 705
Washington, DC 20007
(202) 333-1880
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