Subject: Decision Nearing, Biden Games out Mechanics of a 2016 Run - ABC News
From: "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>
To: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>, "Alexander S. Mackler" <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 17:15:29 -0400

Decision Nearing, Biden Games out Mechanics of a 2016 Run - ABC News

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/decision-nearing-biden-games-mechanics-2016-run-33235596

ABC News

WASHINGTON — Tucked away at his family home in Delaware, Vice President Joe
Biden <http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/whitehouse/joe-biden.htm> has been
huddling with longtime aides and family members, evaluating what it would
take to launch a viable presidential campaign against well-funded
Democratic opponents with a huge head start.

Although Biden has yet to make a decision, his advisers say the vice
president and his associates have started gaming out mechanics like
fundraising, ballot deadlines and an early primary state strategy. Also
under consideration are the personal consequences for Biden and his family,
who are still mourning the death of the vice president's son, Beau Biden, a
few months ago.

Much of the deliberation has taken place this week at the Biden's house in
a secluded, wooded suburb of Wilmington, said several Biden aides, who
requested anonymity because they weren't authorized to discuss the meetings
publicly. In recent days, longtime Biden confidantes Mike Donilon and
former Sen. Ted Kaufman have spent time there, along with Biden's surviving
son, Hunter Biden, and his sister, Valerie Owens Biden, who has played a
top role in all his previous campaigns.

A look at the deliberations:

——

TIMING

Biden's team has settled on a one-month window from Sept. 1 to Oct. 1 in
which he could potentially announce plans to run.

The vice president long ago set an end-of-summer deadline for his decision,
and the last full day of summer is Sept. 22. The longer he waits, the less
time he has to build a formidable campaign, but competing events on the
administration's calendar make it difficult to launch in the next couple of
weeks.

If Biden's not in by Oct. 1, it will likely be too late, people who have
spoken to Biden recently said. He'll need at least two full months to get
the petition signatures and delegates lined up by the beginning of December
to qualify for the ballot in early primary states.

His aides are also eyeing the first Democratic primary debate — on Oct. 13
— as potentially a make-or-break moment. That first debate is expected to
attract a huge audience among Democratic primary voters, giving Biden a
powerful opportunity to establish himself as a credible alternative to
Hillary Rodham Clinton. Biden's strong performance in the 2012 vice
presidential debate was widely credited with helping get the campaign back
on track after President Barack Obama's weak showing in his first debate.

——

MONEY

Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders, the top two candidates in the Democratic
primary, have already amassed millions of dollars while securing support
from many of the party's top fundraisers. Biden would start with zero.

With that reality in mind, his political advisers have discussed $5 million
in hard money — direct campaign contributions — as a bare minimum of what
they'd likely need in the first two months to open campaign offices and be
competitive in the first primary contests. Separately, the super PAC
encouraging Biden to run has set a goal to raise $2.5 million to $3 million
in the next six or so weeks.

The super PAC, known as Draft Biden, is exempt from contribution limits,
and could pay for pro-Biden television advertising. But the trappings of
his current job make campaigning extremely expensive for Biden. When the
vice president travels for political events, his campaign has to reimburse
the government for much of the cost of Air Force Two.

It remains to be seen whether Biden could attract enough major donors and
bundlers to fund a competitive campaign. After all, many of the party's top
fundraisers are already committed to Clinton.

"If he decides to run — and I hope he will — I'd be a huge supporter," said
Paula Levine, a Democratic fundraiser and Biden family friend who has
raised money for his previous campaigns. "But Joe has to make the decision
that's right for him and his family."

——

THE MAP

Aiming to prove Biden would be competitive in key primary states, Draft
Biden has been organizing and recruiting Democratic talent in Iowa, New
Hampshire <http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/new-hampshire.htm> and South
Carolina. This week Steve Schale, who ran Obama's presidential campaign in
Florida, joined the super PAC, becoming the most senior Obama campaign
staffer to publicly support a Biden run.

Biden's team has said it's optimistic about his prospects in South
Carolina, which holds the third primary contest and where Biden has deep
political roots. In an attempt to lock up support there, Clinton's campaign
has dispatched top advisers John Podesta
<http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/whitehouse/john-podesta.htm> and James
Carville to South Carolina, where they've been holding public events and
announcing endorsements.

In a bout of encouraging news for Biden this week, a Quinnipiac University
poll of three battleground states — Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania — found
Biden faring as well as or better than Clinton against the top Republican
candidates. In Ohio, 48 percent said they'd support Biden over Republican
Donald Trump.

"What this shows is that potentially, Mr. Biden could be a competitive
candidate," said Peter Brown, the polling institute's assistant director.

———

Reach Josh Lederman on Twitter at http://twitter.com/joshledermanAP

Eric D. Schwerin
[email-masked]

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