Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Democrats nervous about outside cash disadvantage -- Florida redistricting session collapses
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 08:02:02 -0600

By Steven Shepard

With Theodoric Meyer

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro&#39;s Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day&#39;s most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (
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SUMMER LANDSCAPING - "The GOP's big-money plan to save the Senate," by POLITICO's Manu Raju (sent first to Campaign Pros on Sunday evening): "To keep the Senate majority, Republicans plan to leverage what's expected to be a huge money advantage, led by a hodge-podge of big-spending outside groups, to bloody Democratic challengers taking on a string of vulnerable GOP incumbents in pivotal swing states. ... On paper, Democrats are in prime position to make Mitch McConnell a one-term majority leader. Republicans are on defense across the map, with 24 incumbents trying to keep their seats vs. just 10 for Democrats. ... The problem is that despite that advantage, Democrats know full well they'll
 be outspent, probably by a lot. They're hoping the early attacks won't amount to much given that the election is more than a year away. But party officials are increasingly anxious that their big-ticket donors need to step up - or risk seeing McConnell remain as majority leader for the next two years. 'We do need our people to get their skin in the game,' said one Senate Democratic strategist, who asked not to be named to speak candidly about party donors." 
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THINGS FALL APART - Florida's state legislature ended its special session on Friday without reaching an agreement on a new congressional map, essentially kicking the process to the state Supreme Court, which invalidated the maps last month.

- "National parties cautious on Florida redistricting endgame," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: 
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- Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham told POLITICO Florida's Jessica Bakeman on Sunday in Tallahassee that she expects to continue serving in Congress. "I'm continuing to run, and if the people of the Second Congressional District give me the honor of electing me again, I will be honored to continue to serve," Graham said, acknowledging the "uncertainty" created by the chaos at the state capital. "I haven't spoken with anyone that expected that the Legislature wouldn't be able to agree on some map, so we are in uncharted territory." 
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Days until the 2015 election: 71. Days until the 2016 election: 442.

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RAND'S PLAN - 'Kentucky GOP greenlights joint Senate, presidential run for Rand Paul,' by Campaign Pro&#39;s Theodoric Meyer, with Manu Raju: 'The Kentucky GOP's central committee voted Saturday to adopt a presidential caucus system next year, clearing the way Republican Sen. Rand Paul to run for president and reelection at the same time. Paul, who is in his first term, had pushed Kentucky Republicans to move from a primary to a caucus system as a way to get around a state law forbidding candidates from appearing twice on the same ballot. He has pledged to pick up the tab for holding the caucuses, which could run $500,000 or more.' 
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- The switch to caucuses, to be held on March 5, will also give Kentucky voters more of a voice in choosing the GOP nominee than if they&#39;d stuck with the primary, which will be held in May. Jim Skaggs, a member of the Kentucky GOP&#39;s executive committee, said that would be good for the state. 'This might cause Jeb Bush and some of the other people to come up to Kentucky and campaign,' he told Campaign Pro. The party voted to switch to caucuses on one condition: Paul must transfer $250,000 to a state party account by Sept. 18 as a down payment for the cost of holding them. But Skaggs, a developer who said he&#39;d sold Paul the land for his house, said that didn&#39;t mean the party
 didn&#39;t take Paul at his word. 'I don&#39;t distrust Rand,' he said. 'I sold him a lot, and he paid me right when he said he would.'

- Mitch McConnell saved the day, according to the Lexington Herald-Leader's Sam Youngman: "Paul was going to lose Saturday&#39;s vote. ... The 147 members of the Republican Party of Kentucky&#39;s state central committee wanted to help Paul bypass a state law that prevents him from running for two offices on the same ballot, but they were not prepared to do so without some reassurances about the cost of holding a special presidential preference caucus. ... When the committee kicked out reporters and went behind closed doors Saturday morning, ostensibly to discuss budget issues, Paul made his pitch. It was a pitch that fell flat. A combination of misreading the room and stubbornness led
 Kentucky&#39;s junior senator to think that simply asking Republicans to trust that he was good for the money would be enough to win a caucus. ... Mike Duncan, a longtime McConnell ally and a former chairman of the Republican National Committee, along with Terry Carmack, McConnell&#39;s state director, came up with a plan for a funding trigger that assuaged the concerns of many skeptical Republicans." 
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WILL IT FLOAT? THE BIDEN BALLOON CONTINUES - "Joe Biden is leaning toward a 2016 run," by the Wall Street Journal's Carol E. Lee and Reid J. Epstein: "Vice President Joe Biden, who has long been considering a presidential bid, is increasingly leaning toward entering the race if it is still possible he can knit together a competitive campaign at this late date, people familiar with the matter said. ... Biden still could opt to sit out the 2016 race, and he is weighing multiple political, financial and family considerations before making a final decision. But conversations about the possibility were a prominent feature of an August stay in South Carolina and his home in Delaware last week,
 these people said. A surprise weekend trip to Washington to meet with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.), a darling of the party's liberal wing, represented a pivot from potential to likely candidate, one Biden supporter said." 
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- "Possible Biden bid already dividing loyalties in the White House," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "In interviews, current and former White House staffers say that as Biden has ratcheted up the seriousness of his explorations, including having aides reach out to former top political operatives for President Barack Obama to gauge interest, the situation looks very different from when they'd been assuming [Hillary Clinton would] be the only real Democratic candidate in 2016. ... They know how hard it would be for Biden to win, even if progressive icon Elizabeth Warren were to back him. (The two held an unannounced meeting over the weekend.) They know that Clinton's the heavy favorite to
 be the nominee. They're still pretty confident she's the one who'd put together the operation that would make her the strongest candidate next November. 'I don't know what the official line will be,' said one West Wing staffer, 'but you will have a lot of people in the building rooting for him.' 'Even if their mind is with Clinton,' the staffer added, reflecting feelings of others heard in the White House, 'their heart is with the vice president.'" 
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- Biden won't be attending this week's DNC confab in Minneapolis, however, POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti reported. 
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2016 IN TWO MINUTES - "Cruz preaches to the field," by POLITICO's Katie Glueck in Des Moines, Iowa: "Ted Cruz was in full-on preacher mode Friday night here in the Hawkeye State as he hosted a rally for religious freedom that drew more than 2,500 Iowans, representatives of an evangelical constituency that will make or break the Texas senator's campaign as he seeks to solidify support with this deeply conservative caucus electorate. 'You wonder why we have a federal government that comes after our free speech rights, that comes after our religious liberty, that comes after life, that comes after marriage, that comes after our values?' Cruz roared to the audience, packed into a cavernous
 ballroom in downtown Des Moines. To cheers, he continued, 'It is because 54 million evangelical Christians stayed home [in 2012]. Well I'm here to tell you, we will stay home no longer.'" 
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- "Failed 2014 GOP Senate Primary Challengers Rally to Ted Cruz," by The Hotline's Adam Wollner: "Ted Cruz&#39;s presidential campaign may not get many endorsements from Senate colleagues. Not coincidentally, the Texas senator is racking up support from primary challengers who tried but failed to unseat some of those senators last year. Tennessee&#39;s Joe Carr, Mississippi&#39;s Chris McDaniel, and South Carolina&#39;s Lee Bright, three conservatives who opposed longtime GOP senators in 2014 primaries, have all backed Cruz for president. It&#39;s a small part of Cruz&#39;s effort to do next year what those candidates did last year: serve as a vessel for conservative voters&#39; frustration
 with the political establishment." 
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CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Washington needs a relationship counselor, and that's what I am." - Democrat Jonathan Swinton, a "family and marriage counselor," announcing a bid to unseat Utah GOP Sen. Mike Lee. 
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