Subject: Two stories tonight
From: "Alexander S. Mackler" <[email-masked]>
To: "Steve Richetti" <[email-masked]>, "Acdonilon" <[email-masked]>, "ted kaufman" <[email-masked]>, "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 22:48:54 -0400

One from WP/Balz, one from HuffPo.
Family issues weigh heaviest on Biden as he considers a 2016 campaign
<[email-masked]?subject=Reader%20feedback%20for%20%27Family%20issues%20weigh%20heaviest%20on%20Biden%20as%20he%20considers%20a%202016%20campaign%27>

As Vice President Biden weighs a possible run for president in 2016,
personal issues stand as the biggest unresolved obstacle, with Biden trying
to gauge whether his family is emotionally prepared for a grueling campaign
while still grieving over the recent death of his son Beau, according to
people familiar with his deliberations.

Biden is now leaning more toward running than he was earlier in the summer,
though he is still weeks from a decision. He thinks his White House
experience over the past 6 1/2 years, coupled with his grounding in
middle-class issues during a long career in the Senate, makes him
well-equipped to serve as President Obama’s successor.

But following the loss of Beau Biden
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2015/05/30/e1ac5a2a-0731-11e5-a428-c984eb077d4e_story.html>
in May, the elder Biden is concerned about whether his relatives could
handle a bid for the presidency and its time demands on the family
patriarch. Advisers know that only the vice president can make the judgment
about the readiness of his family.

Biden’s advisers said he is on a timetable to decide about running by the
end of the summer. That gives him roughly another month, although a
decision could come sooner. Should he run, he would enter as an underdog
against former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton, who has amassed a
huge campaign war chest and is months ahead of the vice president in
organizing in the states with the earliest contests.

Biden would be starting almost from scratch, but the mechanics of financing
and staffing a campaign appear less daunting to those around him than they
once did. At the same time, the vice president would not have unlimited
time to begin assembling an operation.

Clinton has been hurt by declining personal ratings
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/27/four-poll-numbers-to-make-hillary-clinton-sweat/>
as the FBI looks into the security of a private e-mail server
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/read-hillary-clinton-email/>
she used as secretary of state. This has helped fuel outside interest in a
possible Biden candidacy. For Biden, one important aspect of his
deliberations is assessing just how weakened Clinton is, though it’s
doubtful that will be clear before he must make his own decision.

One factor that is shaping the conversations about a possible Biden
campaign is that so much of the conventional wisdom about 2016 already has
been upended, whether by the support for the candidacy of businessman
Donald Trump or by the challenge from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to what
many said was the invincibility of the Clinton machine. The unpredictable
political climate is both a spur and a warning as Biden tries to decide.

As speculation about a possible Biden candidacy intensified, the vice
president met with Obama for one of their regular weekly lunches Monday,
the first time they have been in face-to-face contact since the president
left for his vacation two weeks ago. The session offered Biden an
opportunity to update Obama on his thinking about a possible third
presidential campaign, and there was no indication that the president did
anything to discourage Biden from continuing to deliberate.

White House press secretary Josh Earnest issued strong praise for Biden on
the president’s behalf, saying again that Obama believes his selection of
Biden was “the smartest decision that he had ever made in politics.”

Obama has remained neutral in the contest for the Democratic nomination,
though he has consistently praised Clinton for her work as secretary of
state and as a prospective president. Earnest declined to be drawn into a
discussion of the president’s leanings in a hypothetical Biden-Clinton
contest. He would not rule out an eventual presidential endorsement of one
of the candidates.

The press secretary’s comments about Biden were not significantly different
from what the president has said in the past. But in the current context,
Obama’s language, and that of his spokesman, are being closely watched by
those partial to Biden or Clinton.

CNN reported that Biden and his team met Monday night with former Obama
White House advisers Anita Dunn and Bob Bauer at his residence.

Talk about Biden’s intentions ramped up over the weekend after it was
disclosed that he met Saturday with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), a
favorite of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

Biden, who asked for the meeting, wanted to talk to Warren about
middle-class and working-class issues, which have become her trademark in
the Senate. Biden and Warren are not close personally, but one link between
them is Ted Kaufman, one of Biden’s closest advisers, who replaced him in
the Senate when Biden became vice president. As a member of the Senate
Banking Committee, Kaufman helped draft what became the Dodd-Frank law
revamping financial regulations, while Warren served on the congressionally
chartered panel overseeing the implementation of the 2008 Wall Street
bailout; Kaufman replaced Warren on that panel when his Senate term ended
in late 2010.

Advisers to Warren played down the significance of the meeting, noting that
she did a similar session with Clinton months ago.

Many progressives had hoped that Warren would run for the Democratic
nomination, but she has demurred. In her absence, Sanders has appropriated
much of the energy on the party’s left, which has boosted his support in
the polls. What would happen to that support, should Biden run, is
unknowable, according to the assessment of those familiar with Biden’s
deliberations.

The vice president and a small group of advisers have been surveying the
political landscape over the past weeks, trying to assess the
organizational and financial hurdles he would face in mounting a late-entry
campaign against Clinton, and discussing the rationale for a possible
candidacy.

The team has done some outreach, but much of the communication has been in
the opposite direction, as fundraisers and others have offered
encouragement and a willingness to help with a possible Biden campaign.

Though Clinton has a huge head start, there is confidence that plenty of
talent is still available for a Biden campaign team. Among the issues up
for discussion is how difficult it would be to put together an operation
that could compete effectively against Clinton in the Iowa caucuses, where
organization is considered one key to success.

Biden’s advisers seem less worried about New Hampshire, because that state
holds a primary rather than caucuses. The vice president also is optimistic
about his prospects in the South Carolina primary, the third contest on the
2016 calendar.

Clinton’s financial advantage is not underestimated, but a late-starting
campaign requires less money than an early-starting one. Clinton raised $47
million during the first three months of her candidacy but also burned
through $18 million in that time.

Biden does not have a large network of fundraisers but might be able to
draw on a new generation of financial backers. By one estimate, he would
need about $30 million for his campaign to get him through the first four
contests, but only if he had a substantial super PAC behind him that could
raise and spend three times that amount.

The Clinton factor represents one of the trickiest calculations in Biden’s
decision-making. Those urging him to run are hardly indifferent to what has
happened to her in the past several weeks, and that has clearly helped
create more interest in a possible Biden campaign.

But Clinton’s weaknesses are not a rationale for the vice president to run.
He would need an agenda of his own, presumably a bold and, loyalists would
hope, forward-leaning progressive vision grounded in middle-class economics
and his experience in dealing with international issues.

What complicates all this is that neither Biden’s family considerations nor
Clinton’s political health will be fully clear by the time the clock runs
out and he must declare his intentions.

Paul Kane and Karen Tumulty contributed to this report.

Joe Biden Worried Hillary Clinton Isn't Credible On Income Inequality The
veep is weighing a run, but his family dynamics are also part of the
equation.

WASHINGTON -- If Vice President Joe Biden decides to jump into the
presidential race, his decision will be driven, he has said in recent
conversations, by a belief that Hillary Clinton's background won't allow
her to be a credible messenger when it comes to income inequality, which
Biden sees as a defining issue. But even as Biden sees that opening, and is
being urged by members of his family to run, his remaining reluctance stems
from his wife Jill Biden's discomfort with a bid at this moment.

A former adviser who remains close to the vice president said Biden is
weighing his wife's comfort with a run and the conduct of the Clinton
campaign as he finalizes his decision. His final choice on whether to run,
according to a Democratic fundraiser who has met with Biden aides, will
likely come in late September. However, another prominent Democratic
fundraiser who has raised money for Biden in the past suggested that an
entry could come as late as early October, in the weeks leading up to the
first Democratic debate.

Biden's ultimate decision is complicated by delicate, emotionally raw
family dynamics. According to the former adviser, who requested anonymity
to speak openly, Jill Biden remains hesitant about a campaign as she
continues to grieve the death of Beau Biden, who died in May at the age of
46. Beau reportedly encouraged his father to make a third run at the
presidency before his death, and the vice president sees the possible
campaign as a vehicle to promote Beau's legacy and the issues he cared
about.

Beyond family misgivings, Biden is also waiting to see how the current
Democratic primary process plays out. It's not just Hillary Clinton's
trouble shaking criticism over her use of a private email account while
secretary of state that he's watching. Biden has also expressed concerns in
conversations with fellow Democrats that Clinton won't be able to
effectively push issues like economic inequality, owing to her time at the
Clinton foundation
<http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/04/20/us/politics/new-book-clinton-cash-questions-foreign-donations-to-foundation.html?referrer=&_r=0>
and
the paid speeches she's given since leaving the State Department.

For weeks now, Democratic officials had assumed that talk of a run from
inside Biden's orbit was merely an effort to keep options open should a
Clinton candidacy fall apart. But in recent days, the chatter has grown
louder and more specific, with inquiries being made into how a campaign
structure could be put together and how much money could be raised.
Speculation hit a near fever pitch this past weekend, after the vice
president met
<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/joe-biden-elizabeth-warren_55d8d459e4b04ae4970373f8>
Saturday with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who has yet to endorse in
the primary.

Supporters are paving the way for Biden to jump into the race, with the Draft
Biden campaign
<http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/draft-biden-pave-vp-run-2016/story?id=33288874>
building up a grassroots network and raising funds. And on Monday, the
Washington
Post reported
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/08/24/top-democratic-fundraisers-invited-to-meet-with-joe-biden-at-naval-observatory/?postshare=7781440444159149>
that
major Democratic fundraisers were invited to meet with Biden at his
residence.

But the extent of support out there isn't entirely clear, as a good chunk
of the big donors are committed to Clinton. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.),
meanwhile, has soaked up large chunks of the party's grassroots financial
backing and could lay claim to having elevated economic inequality as a
focus for months before Biden entered the race.

"Maybe he can peel off some donors on the left, maybe unions, but I don’t
know who is out there," said one of the aforementioned Democratic
fundraisers.

Still, the prospect of a Biden run has put White House officials in a bind.
Many Obama aides have already signed up to help with the Clinton campaign,
and there is little apparent evidence at this juncture that there will be a
bolt to the vice president should he enter. Indeed, Clinton confidantes
have stressed that they believe her email troubles will likely fade over
time. They are eagerly awaiting her Oct. 22
<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-clinton-campaign-is-in-the-barrel-they-have-a-plan-to-get-out_55d76df0e4b08cd3359c0858?kvcommref=mostpopular>
testimony
before the House committee investigating the Benghazi consulate attack of
2011.

Inside the White House, officials have tried not to show any leanings
between the two officials. White House press secretary Josh Earnest had
kind words for Biden on Monday, saying it was not out of the question that
President Barack Obama could endorse one of the Democratic candidates.

"There is probably no one in American politics today who has a better
understanding of exactly what is required to mount a successful national
presidential campaign
<http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/24/us-usa-election-biden-idUSKCN0QT21G20150824>,"
said Earnest.

*Laura Goldman* <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/laura-goldman/>* contributed
reporting.*

-- 

Alexander Snyder Mackler
(302) 598-867