Subject: Without Declaring His Candidacy, Biden Places Third in Iowa - Bloomberg Politics
From: "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>
To: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>, "Alexander S. Mackler" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 29 Aug 2015 19:13:54 -0400

Without Declaring His Candidacy, Biden Places Third in Iowa - Bloomberg
Politics

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/

The Index

Vice President Joe Biden would enter Iowa in a distant third place among
Democrats if he decides to run for president, but his rising popularity,
combined with signs of trouble for Hillary Clinton, means the early caucus
state may be less of an obstacle to Biden this time than it was in 2008.

Biden is the first choice for president among 14 percent of likely
Democratic caucus-goers in a Bloomberg Politics/*Des Moines Register* Iowa
Poll released Saturday. That’s up from 8 percent in May, a significant
increase given that Biden is not a declared candidate. He trails Clinton,
the first choice of 37 percent, and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont at 30
percent.

When likely Democratic caucus-goers are asked for their second choices,
however, Biden leads the pack with 24 percent, narrowly ahead of Clinton's
23 percent and the 20 percent for Sanders. Biden also has the highest
favorable rating of the three among likely Democratic caucus-goers, at 79
percent, compared with 77 percent for Clinton and 73 percent for Sanders.

“Joe Biden has a chance.”

Joan McCloskey

The survey of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees, conducted Aug. 23-26,
comes as Biden and his backers are meeting with prospective donors,
organized labor and other key constituencies to assess his potential
support and Clinton’s weaknesses in key early states.

J. Ann Selzer, president of West Des Moines, Iowa-based Selzer & Co., which
conducted the poll, said it's too soon to know how well Biden can do in the
state if he runs. "We’re just at the beginning," she said. "He’s known in
Iowa, he’s run twice here before, so there’s an amount of goodwill left."

*Related:*

   - *Sanders Within Striking Distance of Clinton in Iowa
   <http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-08-29/sanders-within-striking-distance-of-clinton-in-iowa>*
   - *Read the methodology and questions for Democratic caucus-goers here.*
   <http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2015-08-28/2125-methodology-document-Sat-29-Aug.pdf>

While the results don’t show an easy path for Biden to win in Iowa, they
suggest he may be better positioned now for a credible run than he was in
January 2008, when he abandoned a run for the White House after placing
fifth in the Iowa caucuses with less than 1 percent of the vote.

In an October 2007 Iowa Poll, Biden was the top choice for only 5 percent
of likely Democratic caucus-goers -- about one-third of what he commands
now.

Biden's latest poll numbers, combined with Sanders’ rising popularity, may
bolster the case for a campaign-in-waiting in the event Clinton is further
damaged by investigations into her use of a personal e-mail server while at
the State Department, and other controversies.

“He’s like, ‘Wow I’m at 14 and I haven’t even announced, and everybody
likes me, but more importantly Hillary’s way under 50 and Bernie’s within
striking distance,’” said Ken Goldstein, professor of politics at the
University of San Francisco and Bloomberg Politics' polling and advertising
analyst.

“Biden is a bet on potential. He’s got high favorability and then if
Hillary implodes, if Hillary’s a disaster in the debate, if another scandal
comes up, if Bernie beats Hilary in Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden’s strong
favorability is then poised to take advantage of those things,” Goldstein
added.  “At the end of the day, Biden doesn’t care whether he wins Iowa.
But he would love for Bernie to beat Hillary. Think of a world where
Hillary loses or has a very narrow victory in Iowa, and then Bernie wins
New Hampshire, Biden wins South Carolina, and the Democratic establishment
goes on to reassess everything.”

Marvin Trimble, 54, a firefighter from Garrison, Iowa, said he likes Biden
personally, and thinks his experience as vice president has prepared him
for the presidency and that Biden is less vulnerable to controversy that
Republicans can exploit in the general election than is Clinton. “I know
what the polls say now, but I think if he jumped in soon, I mean now, I
think in a short time the numbers would show he has support and I think
he’d give Hillary a run for her money,” Trimble said.

“The controversial stuff with Hillary, I think, it’s just going to be kind
of a nightmare whether it turns out to be true or not,” Trimble added.
“Look what they did to John Kerry,” he said, referring to the Swift Boat
Veterans for Truth, a campaign questioning of Kerry's military record
during the 2004 presidential campaign. “You take a little bit of truth and
make it gospel, and a lot of people who are going to want to believe it
will believe it. I don’t honestly think she’ll get elected if she wins the
nomination,” he said of Clinton. “That’s just a gut feeling with me.”

Bob Huber, 71, of Coralville, Iowa, said Biden seems “a lot more
trustworthy” than Clinton. He said he's worried about her chances in a
general election because she and her husband, former President Bill
Clinton, have a reputation for “not necessarily telling the truth all the
time.”

Another Biden fan, Joan McCloskey, 72, of Des Moines, cited the vice
president's personality, his support of women’s issues and his experience
with foreign policy.  “He’s been my first choice for a long time,” she
said, adding that a certain amount of pragmatism is involved in her
decision. While she loves Sanders’ ideals, McCloskey said, “Bernie Sanders
is a socialist and he’s not going to win. Let’s face it. Bernie Sanders is
not going to win but Joe Biden has a chance.”

At the same, McCloskey said she wonders if Biden, who turns 73 in November,
is game to make the race. Given the death of the vice president's older
son, Beau, in May from brain cancer, she said: “I’m concerned about his
heart, personally.

“I wonder if, at his age, if he really wants to go through this horrid
campaign when he’s hurting and when his family’s hurting. It’s grueling,"
McCloskey added, dissecting the campaign with the insider's knowledge comes
from living in the state where the first ballots are cast.

"One small event, big event, one town after another and you give the same
goddamn speech over and over again and you’ve got to appear compassionate
and considerate. At this age and this time in his life I don’t know if I
wish that on him even though I think he’d be a terrific president.”

Eric D. Schwerin
[email-masked]

Sent from my iPhon