Subject: September Outlook: Will China Overshadow the Fed?
From: "David Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2015 13:12:09 -0700 (PDT)

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Dear R. Hunter,

Until today's market events, we had been leaning towards a forecast of a 
25bp rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, uncertainties about 
China continue to cast a shadow over the US.

As I write in the attached bulletin, economists are used to basing their 
market forecasts on economic data. The situation is now reversed, and 
economists now have to carefully monitor market events in order to 
determine when the Fed will act. This happened previously in September 
2013 when Bernanke surprised by not easing asset purchases due to averse 
reactions in emerging markets. We are entering a new era when global 
concerns will strongly impact domestic monetary policy. China as well is 
entering a new era, and unless unemployment numbers at the end of this 
week surprise on the upside, uncertainties about what is going on in the 
world's second largest economy can be expected to prevail.

With all best wishes,

David Hale 
Chairman

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

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